After going two-for-three last week, I’m back to see if we can keep the streak rolling as we return to the UFC Apex for another fight night card headlined by Rob Font and Marlon Vera.
Marlon Vera vs. Rob Font
Saturday, April 30, 2022 – 09:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex
Bantamweight Main Event Bout
Font
This card feels like the composite of every UFC pay-per-view undercard with Andrei Arlovski as the co-main event and a litany of names that you normally associate with not getting televised walkouts act as the go-home show to UFC 274 and a card that you DO NOT want to miss.
But looking at the main event for a second, these are two men with similar roads to this Saturday night in Vegas, both winning at least three of their last five fights, having a common loss in Jose Aldo, who Font fell to in his most recent fight in December of last year.
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Font’s last four wins are against top level competitors like former champion Cody Garbrandt, Marlon Moraes, Sergio Pettis, and others, and while Vera lost two recent fights to the aforementioned Aldo and Song Yadong, Vera was the one to stop the Sean O’Malley train in the latter’s first and only loss, which makes a great case for “Chito,” but with Font never knocked out in his 24 fight career, I’d not look at this as a viable path for victory on Saturday night.
Looking at Font, five of his last six fights have seen him eat up rounds as if it were me at all you can eat buffet after not eating for a day and a half.
Vera
But both he and Vera have yet to fall on account of ref stoppage, and with Vera having the edge on submissions (tapping out eight and never tapping out himself), making this fight feel more and more of a toss up despite Vera being a slight underdog, (+112) per BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) and Font the slight favorite (-132).
The Pick
As a prediction, I’m saying don’t fade the favorite. Taking Font is the smartest move you can make in this main event, but while the Under 4 ½ rounds is a tempting offer for anyone (+130), looking at the best option is to take Font straight up and taking that O 4 ½ round option (-160) as if this fight does get to a finish.
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I don’t see either guy getting got from the other in an early round, especially with these fighters knowing that the baby cage better than most, fighting all but one fight between them the last two years inside of it.
Using a wait and see/grind approach will serve whomever wins this matchup well, because both fighters are going to look to avoid making mistakes and exposing themselves and letting it become a fight in a phone booth.
Font will try his best to keep the fight standing and ensure that Vera doesn’t get inside to go for an MDK shot or a takedown and make the fight five rounds of grapplebanging, as Font is only a BJJ brown belt and Vera is a black belt.
Think I’m wrong? Let me know on Twitter at MRyanConsulting.
UFC Pick: Font to Win (-132) at BetOnline
UFC Pick: O 4 ½ Rounds (-160) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
