Top NFL Pick: Jaguars -3.5 (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 6 schedule only has 2 games between teams with winning records, and few would have imagined those would be Colts-Jaguars and Buccaneers-Lions. But it has been another strange season in that regard, and we are looking for some of these teams to start proving themselves.
With the aid of the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review, we narrowed down our top spreads or totals for your Week 6 bets at your favorite offshore sportsbooks.
Big AFC South Battle in Jacksonville
The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since the 2014 season. Now they must play this big game in Jacksonville without starting quarterback Anthony Richardson (shoulder), but Gardner Minshew could be a better option anyway in this rematch from Week 1, which the Jaguars won 31-21.
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 45.5 points.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at EverBank Stadium
Week 1 Recap: Jaguars 31, Colts 21
Despite the final score, the Colts were right in this game, and they even led in the 4th quarter before the Jaguars scored the final 14 points.
Rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson looked poised to score a late touchdown that would have covered the spread and given the Colts a slight shot at still winning the game with an onside kick recovery and score. But he stayed down after a hit and exited the game. Gardner Minshew came in and the Colts turned the ball over on downs.
As we have come to learn, Richardson gets hurt a lot and in a variety of ways. His latest injury is his shoulder, and the Colts are already reporting that Minshew will get his 2nd start of the season.
But if you look back at this Week 1 game, the Colts had 2 very fortunate touchdowns in Michael Pittman Jr. turning a screen pass into a 39-yard score, which is not the kind of play he usually makes. It is Pittman’s only touchdown this year and his longest catch since 2022.
The Colts also scored a defensive touchdown on a weird fumble where most of the players stopped running as they thought a pass was incomplete from Trevor Lawrence. But DeForest Buckner was wise enough to pick the ball up and returned it for a 26-yard touchdown. The Indy offense only scored 14 points in the game.
Jaguars Looked Very Good in London
Oddly enough, the Jaguars are 0-2 in games played in Jacksonville this year and 2-0 in games played in London. They were impressive in their 25-20 win over the Bills last week because the Bills were destroying their last 3 opponents by 28 points each. The Jaguars had success on both sides of the ball and looked like the better team.
The Jaguars have made home a living hell for the Colts, who have not won down there since Andrew Luck was the quarterback in the 2014 season. But the Colts seem to always blow it in Florida, and last year was no exception when Doug Pederson’s team won 24-0 in Week 2.
This is a new coaching staff for the Colts, but they already lost to this team by 10 points at home in Week 1, and the Jaguars will have some familiarity with Minshew, their former quarterback.
The Colts got Jonathan Taylor back last week, though he only had 6 carries for 18 yards as the team eased him back. Zack Moss was the back who shocked everyone by rushing for 165 yards and 2 touchdowns on the usually stout Titans. The Jaguars will have to account for him as Moss was inactive in the Week 1 meeting.
The Pick
The computer score sees another double-digit win by the Jaguars, extending the winning streak at home to 9 seasons over the Colts. But division games can be tougher, and it probably will be closer than that score. Even when the Colts were down 23-0 to the Rams in Week 4, they forced overtime before losing 29-23.
But Jacksonville is the more complete team with the edge at quarterback, experience at coach, and Travis Etienne was fantastic on the ground against Buffalo. Calvin Ridley also torched the Colts in Week 1 and just had 122 yards against the Bills. With the spread this low and the prediction this big, this is a good spot to trust Jacksonville to complete the sweep and cover the spread against the Colts again.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 31 – Colts 18
NFL Pick: Jaguars -3.5 (-115) at Bovada
49ers Looking at 6-0 Start in Cleveland
The San Francisco 49ers (5-0) sure look like the best team in the NFL, and they are 17-1 in their last 18 games. Their next challenge is Myles Garrett and the Browns, who had a bye week. The Browns lost 28-3 to the Ravens in their last game in Week 4, which was without starting quarterback Deshaun Watson (shoulder).
The 49ers are a 5-point road favorite with a total of 38.5 points.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Cleveland Browns Stadium
What Is San Francisco’s Weakness?
Coming into the season, we knew the 49ers had a strong running game with Christian McCaffrey, incredible receivers who can generate YAC plays better than anyone, a top offensive line, and the No. 1 defense led by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year (Nick Bosa).
The only question mark was Brock Purdy at quarterback. Was last year legitimate? Will he be healthy after the elbow surgery?
Purdy nearly answered those questions in Week 1 when he picked apart the Steelers. But after Week 5, Purdy stands No. 1 in QBR (83.6), which is usually a strong indicator of an MVP and first-team All-Pro season at quarterback. The 49ers are also No. 2 in scoring to only the Dolphins, who have their stats inflated by that 70-point game.
But it is the consistency that matters for Purdy and the 49ers. They are 17-1 in the last 18 games, they have scored 30 points in every game this season, and Purdy is now 13-0 in games where he attempts at least 20 passes.
Nothing ever seems too hard for him, and he was at his best against Dallas last week, throwing 4 touchdowns and running the offense like a 10-year veteran.
The Browns did not allow 10 first downs in any of their first 3 games, which put them in historic company on defense. But we have come to see that this was based on the opponent too. The Cowboys beat up on the New York teams and the awful Patriots, but they were smacked in the face by the 49ers, who put up 42 points.
The 49ers probably do not score that much again, but they are going to drop a respectable number against this defense.
Missing Nick Chubb
On the other side, Deshaun Watson is likely to return from injury. He was cleared by the medical staff for the last game but decided not to play, and the Browns scored 3 points without him.
But scoring will be hard to come by against what is still a great San Francisco defense. It is even harder without Nick Chubb, the heart of the offense who was lost to a fracture in Pittsburgh in Week 2.
Jerome Ford is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry, which is bad for a player who had a 69-yard run included in those numbers. His rushing success rate is 34.0%, which is well below that of Chubb’s career success rate (48.4%).
Watson had his best game as a Brown in Week 3 against the Titans, but the 49ers are a whole different beast, only allowing the Rams (23) to score more than 16 points against them in any game so far. The 49ers have elite players at all levels, and Watson is still someone who takes way too many sacks.
The Pick
For as good as the Cleveland defense looked earlier this season, the 49ers are better on offense. The Cleveland offense is also not as impressive as the San Francisco defense, so this really is a mismatch on both sides, hence why the road team is favored by 5 points.
The 49ers have won by at least 7 points in 11-of-12 starts that Purdy finished. Watson is 0-4 as Cleveland’s starter when the Browns allow more than 14 points, a low bar. Trust the 49ers to win comfortably to get to 6-0 in this one.
Score Prediction: 49ers 25 – Browns 18
NFL Pick: 49ers -5 (-110) at Everygame (visit our Everygame Review)
Falcons Get More Home Cooking
The Falcons are 3-0 at home this year after an exciting win over Houston on Sunday. The Falcons are home once again taking on the Commanders, who lost 40-20 last Thursday against Chicago.
The Falcons are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 42.5 points.
Washington Commanders vs. Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, October 15, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Desmond Ridder’s Best Game
Atlanta looked awful in a 23-7 loss to the Jaguars in London, but that was a new experience for a lot of this young team. The Falcons were much better prepared for their home game with the Texans, who came in hot.
But it was a game where Bijan Robinson and the running game was held in check, forcing Desmond Ridder to throw more than usual. He responded with 329 passing yards and a game-winning drive. Ridder’s previous high was 237 yards against Green Bay, which was also a comeback win.
The Falcons have had some close calls at home, but they are 3-0 there this season. Ridder also has as many comeback wins in the 4th quarter (2) as Justin Fields and Mac Jones combined in their careers. More games like this and the Falcons will have something to work with here. They even got tight end Kyle Pitts heavily involved last week, so that was a good sign.
This young offensive cast should love what it sees against a Washington team that has allowed at least 33 points in 4 straight games. If a defense can make Justin Fields to D.J. Moore look like Steve Young to Jerry Rice, then Ridder could be in store for another big game this week.
Sam Howell’s Sack Issues
The Commanders have a lot of serious problems on defense, but the offense is also part of the problem for new coordinator Eric Bieniemy. He was used to Patrick Mahomes being so good at avoiding sacks even when pressured in Kansas City. Now he is stuck with Sam Howell, who has taken a sack on 13.2% of plays this year.
Howell is on pace to take 99 sacks this year, which would be an absurd number. The record is 76 by David Carr for the 2002 Texans, an expansion team.
The Falcons are tied with the Giants for a league-low 5 sacks. But their pressure rate (23.6%) is above average, so it could just be a matter of time before the plays start resulting in more sacks. With the matchup of Howell, this is a perfect opportunity for Atlanta to rack up some pressures and sacks against an inexperienced quarterback.
The Pick
The Commanders won 19-13 in Atlanta last season, but these teams are on different paths right now. It is hard to trust a Washington defense that ranks so poorly against both the pass and run.
On the other side of the ball, the Falcons have done a good job of limiting possessions and scoring. None of their opponents have surpassed 25 points in their last 14 games going back to last season, the longest streak in the NFL since the 2013-14 49ers (17 games).
We’ll trust the Falcons to keep the score down and win by at least a field goal this time.
Score Prediction: Falcons 21 – Commanders 18
NFL Pick: Falcons -2.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
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