MLB Best Bets for May 9: Skubal Keys Scoring Scarcity in Motown
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LT Profits
- May 9, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Rangers/Tigers Under 7.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are a solid 18-10 in our last 28 Major League Baseball picks after another winning 2-1 night on Wednesday. We now return to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for Friday with every team in action, and we again have the three selections that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three plays for Friday night consisting of two underdog sides and one total. The first pitch for our first play tonight is at 06:40 PM EDT.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel! Today, our expert has advice on the Cardinals vs. Nationals and Padres vs. Rockies games.
Texas Rangers vs. Detroit Tigers
Friday, May 09, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We do not expect a lot of scoring in Detroit on Friday night. Thus, we are backing the Under when reigning Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal and the Tigers host an improved Patrick Corbin and the Rangers in Motown.
Still in Cy Young Form
Skubal won the American League Cy Young Award last year by going 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA and 2.83 xFIP over 31 starts covering 192 innings. Well, the 28-year-old has not lost a step while maintaining that outstanding form thus far this season.
In fact, the southpaw has an even better 2.21 ERA and 2.54 xFIP so far in 2025 despite an unlucky 3-2 record through seven starts. His worst outing came in the first start of the season, when he allowed four runs in five innings. Those four runs were more than the three total runs Tarik has allowed over his last five starts combined!
His excellent K/BB ratio is on par with last year, currently at 10.62/1.11 per nine innings, and he has actually improved his soft contact allowed to 22.6% from 18.1% last year. Add in the Texas offense owning a poor wRC+ of 79 against left-handers and the Detroit bullpen ranking second in the majors in ERA at 2.43, and we just do not see the Rangers doing much offensively here.
Liking the American League
That would give fellow southpaw Corbin some leeway here in allowing a few runs while keeping this game Under the total. And the fact is that he has shown marked improvement at the age of 35 in his first season in the American League after previously spending his career with the Diamondbacks and Nationals of the NL.
In fact, Patrick was on the butt end of many jokes while considered by many to be the worst starter in baseball between 2021 and last season, during which time his best ERA was 5.20 in 2023. However, he has had a rejuvenation with the change in leagues, currently standing at 2-1 through five starts but with a totally unexpected 3.28 ERA.
Corbin allowed three runs in his Texas debut, and he proceeded to allow two runs or less in each of his last four starts. His most frequently thrown pitch is the slider at 34.4% of the time, and the Stuff+ of 100 for that pitch is at its highest rating since 2021.
The Pick
To summarize, Skubal is pitching like someone looking to repeat as a Cy Young winner and is facing a weak offense against lefties. With the 2025 version of Corbin also capable of keeping the scoring down, bet on the Under in Comerica Park Friday.
Predicted Score: Tigers 3 – Rangers 2
MLB Pick: Rangers/Tigers Under 7.5 (-110) at Bookmaker
San Francisco Giants vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, May 09, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
We give Jordan Hicks of the Giants a nice edge over Chris Paddack of the Twins at this stage of their careers. This has us betting on San Francisco at a tiny underdog price in Minnesota on Friday.
Don’t Believe the ERA
Hicks was a reliever for his entire career with a fastball consistently averaging over 100 MPH before the Giants converted him into a starter last season. Thus, he had to conserve more energy in his new role and averaged 95.5 MPH in his first year as a starter while retaining the ability to rear back for more when needed.
Well, the average velocity is up to 96.8 MPH this year, with his heavy sinker clocking even better at 97.1 MPH! Granted, his frontline stats have him at 1-3 with an ugly 6.03 ERA, but that ERA does not tell the true story. Jordan’s xFIP stands at a good 3.71, and he also owns a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 15.0% / 23.9%, with that hard-contact rate down nearly 10% from 33.7% last year.
Hicks has also raised his groundball rate to an excellent 59.3%, combining that great sinker with a slider rated 116 on Stuff+ and a splitter rated 114. Furthermore, once he departs, the San Francisco bullpen is third in the majors in ERA and 2.47.
Poor Command Ratio
Paddack used to hit 100 MPH when he first came up with the Padres, but he has been beset with arm injuries since coming over to the Twins in 2022. He has been healthy so far this year, but he has not been the pitcher he once was while going 0-3 with a 5.57 ERA and an equally bad 5.20 xFIP though seven starts covering 32.1 innings.
Chris has an atrocious command ratio with a career low strikeout rate of 6.68/9 and a career high walk rate of 4.45/9. Those diminished strikeouts are not surprising considering his meager swinging strike rate of 8.7% is in the single digits for the first time in his career, down a full 2% from 10.7% just last year.
Keep in mind that this comes on the heels of another injury that ended his season in July last year, so it remains to be seen if Paddack will ever regain his early form.
The Pick
So, with Hicks’s peripherals much stronger than his ERA and Paddack being a mere shelf of his former self following several injuries, we are backing the Giants Friday as small underdogs in Target Field.
Predicted Score: Giants 5 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Giants ML (+102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, May 09, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
We are calling for an upset in the Emerald City on Friday, where we are supporting a rejuvenated Kevin Gausman and the underdog Blue Jays when they visit Seattle to take on Luis Castillo and the Mariners.
Back in Vintage Form
Gausman comes in at an unlucky 2-3 as that record comes with a good 3.83 ERA and 3.99 xFIP through seven starts covering 40 innings. We used to think that Gausman was vastly underrated a couple of years ago, and even now, he owns a career 3.84 ERA and 3.70 xFIP with not much fanfare. But what we really like is that, even at age 34, his peripherals this season are markedly better than last season.
Although you would not know it from the deceptive record, his overall Stuff+ of 102 is nicely up from 95 last year, and his fastball rating is at a career-best 106! His already good strikeout rate of 8.33/9 has the potential to improve given his 11.5% swinging strike rate, and he is coming off of a great outing where he tossed six scoreless innings against the Guardians, allowing only one hit with nine strikeouts against just one walk.
And naturally, every visiting pitcher appreciates pitching in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in all of baseball here in T-Mobile Park.
Deceptive ERA
Fellow veteran Castillo enters this contest 3-2 with a 3.39 ERA, but his peripherals do not support that ERA, beginning with the xFIP currently at 4.60. And unlike Gausman, the 32-year-old Castillo has had a negative trajectory in those metrics with some disturbingly being career worsts.
For starters, look no further than Luis’s poor command ratio, where he has career-worsts in both strikeout rate at 7.04/9 and walk rate at 3.76/9. He also has career lows in average velocity at 94.8 MPH, overall Stuff+ at 94 and fastball Stuff+ at a disturbing 90. This has led to another career low in swinging strike rate at 10.1%, so as you can see, there is basically nothing in these metrics to suggest that the current ERA is sustainable.
And once Castillo departs, the Seattle bullpen also has a negative ERA/xFIP variance, with a 3.46 ERA but a 4.19 xFIP.
The Pick
In a nutshell, this is a matchup of two veterans with opposite regressions in their career paths this season. With Gausman on the upswing and Castillo having the worst metrics of his career belying his ERA, bet on the Blue Jays to upset at an underdog price.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Mariners 2
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+119) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
