We’re starting to see a lot of lasts for Duke’s head coach Mike Krzyzewski. He coached in his last home game for the Blue Devils. He is now participating in his final ACC Tournament, and he’s anywhere from days to weeks away from coaching in his last game ever.
Right now, the Blue Devils are focusing on the ACC Tournament semifinal against the Miami Hurricanes. Miami gathered momentum to end the regular season, but the Hurricanes have a tough test ahead of them.
Duke looks to be a one-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and a win would give them a chance to get revenge on North Carolina in the ACC Championship. Can they get that win?
NCAAB odds favor Duke by 9 points. Can the Blue Devils cover that spread? Can the Miami Hurricanes either cover the spread or win outright? Here are keys for each team to advance along with an NCAAB bet. Let’s start with the favored Duke Blue Devils. What will it take for them to cover?
Miami Hurricanes vs. Duke Blue Devils
Friday, March 11, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Barclays Center
Keys for Duke to Cover
Duke is all about efficiency this year. They have a solid offensive game plan, but they also win on the boards and with length on defense. They don’t force many steals, which is actually a good sign when you see that they are still efficient. Steals aren’t always a guarantee to translate to every game, so winning with rebounding and blocks is sustainable for a long stretch.
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Look for Duke to try to win inside with size and strength. They focus on inside shooting, and this has been a recipe for success. When you are the superior team, you hope to keep winning with your brand of basketball. They shouldn’t have to pivot against Miami. If they do, that will be a red flag for covering the spread.
To win, Duke needs to slow down and play fundamental college basketball. They are great at limiting fouls and turnovers. They make smart passes to get open shots. To cover this high of a spread, they’ll also need to step it up on defense. They should be able to force Miami into some frantic decisions that will allow the Blue Devils to go on a run or two.
Keys for Miami to Cover
Miami needs to get Duke out of rhythm. The best way to do that defensively is to pack the paint. The concern is that Duke is one of the best perimeter shooting teams in the country, but you have to take that risk. If you can force them into hurried outside shots, you have a chance to keep them out of rhythm.
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Doubling the post is always your best chance of forcing turnovers. However, Miami also needs to switch up defensive schemes. They should run some trap defenses and add pressure out of timeouts. They can run man or zone, and they’ll likely need to run a bit of both. They need to keep Duke guessing. This is hard to do with so little time to prepare, but it’s the best way to upset a team.
On offense, Miami has to attack the rim and hope that Duke gets into foul trouble. Duke is great at avoiding contact while still affecting shots, but you have to get their best players off the court. If this turns into a free-throw battle, Miami might have the edge. At the very least, it would help them cover.
What Is the Best Pick?
It seems wrong to go against Duke right now, and I think they will win this matchup. However, 9 points are too much for a game in the postseason. I don’t care how good Duke is. Miami has a chance to send Coach K out of his final ACC Tournament, and that motivation will make this game scrappy.
There have been plenty of upsets and surprises so far in postseason tournaments. This will be a crazy March. While Duke should make the ACC Championship, they won’t cover the large spread against the Miami Hurricanes. Give me Miami as an underdog.
NCAAB Pick: Miami +9 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
