Someone from Los Angeles belongs in your NBA picks this Thursday – but will it be the L.A. Lakers or the L.A. Clippers? Which way to lean at the top-rated sportsbooks?
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thursday, February 3, 2022 – 10:00 PM EST at Crypto.com Arena
Should the Los Angeles Clippers just tank the rest of the 2021-22 campaign? The Clippers (26-27 SU and ATS) are eighth in the Western Conference standings as we go to press, which would put them in the play-in tournament under the current format.
Paul George (elbow) might be back in a couple of weeks, and there’s a non-zero chance that Kawhi Leonard (knee) will return in time for the playoffs. But the rumor mill says the Clippers will be sellers ahead of the February 10 trade deadline.
VIDEO PICKS: Watch BMR's Free Expert Sports Betting Picks of the Day
The Los Angeles Lakers (24-27 SU, 22-30 ATS) won’t have any of that. They’ve been limited this year by injuries to their own Big Two; Anthony Davis is back in the lineup, but LeBron James is now week-to-week with a swollen left knee.
It’s an ugly situation heading into Thursday’s matchup with their in-arena rivals. The Clippers have opened as 2.5-point “home” faves on the overseas NBA odds board, and that looks like a bargain price to everyone here at the ranch.
I Don't Follow
“But wait,” I hear someone say, “You’re supposed to follow the Lakers when James is out, and fade them when he sits.” We definitely like the second part of that tactic – or at least we did earlier this year when the Purple and Gold went 7-4 SU and 2-9 ATS in the games LeBron played in October and November when he wasn’t missing time with various injuries.
That was back when King James was playing like a mere All-Star. Then, with Davis (wrist) going on the injured list, our hero turned back into an MVP. Laker's bettors still lost money over the next two months, but only a little at 12-13 SU and ATS. Now they’ve dropped three of four at 2-2 ATS with LeBron out and Davis back. Oh well. It was good while it lasted.
Quantify This
Good thing we have computers to help us out when the betting angles run dry. FiveThirtyEight project the Clippers to win Thursday’s game by 5.5 points, which leaves us plenty of potential profit margin for our NBA picks at –2.5 or thereabouts.
They’ve been idle since Monday; the Lakers are coming off Wednesday’s hard-fought 99-94 win over the Portland Trail Blazers (+4 away), a game that saw Davis play 37 minutes. Those were quality minutes, too.
Davis dropped 30 points and 15 rebounds on Portland, and he did it with ruthless efficiency on 10-of-18 shooting. Does he have anything left for Thursday’s game? It might not matter as much if starting center Ivica Zubac (calf) doesn’t suit up for the Clippers, but our main man Isaiah Hartenstein (plus-4.1 BPM at Basketball Reference) is back in the lineup, and Serge Ibaka (minus-1.0 BPM) can still play defense. We’ll buy that for a dollar.
NBA Pick: Clippers -3 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
