Kentucky Derby Favorite Curse: Why Chalk Hasn’t Won Since Justify (2018)

Garrett Chorpenning
April 27, 2026

The Kentucky Derby is an interesting phenomenon. Few American sports have such a large sample size – this year’s edition will be the 152nd running of the race – or have as much of their history intertwined with sports betting.

Together, those factors give us a glimpse into the annals of one of this country’s most iconic sporting events. Its results are well-documented; the betting lines are as much a part of its history as the horses themselves. Unsurprisingly, the data has produced some intriguing results.

Most recently, we’ve hit a stretch in which the favorite to win the race falls short of expectations. Not since 2018 has the odds leader finished in first place. We’ve seen some of the biggest longshots in history win since then, but favorites have been shut out.

So what’s behind the skid? And what does that mean for the 2026 Derby? We’ll answer those questions below. In the meantime, check out our top-rated offshore sportsbooks and place a bet on this year’s field.

How Often Does the Favorite Win the Kentucky Derby?

Less often than you’d think. Since 1908, when pari-mutuel betting took hold of the race, the favorite has won 40 out of 118 races, or about 34 percent. Justify was the last to accomplish the feat in 2018.

This dry spell we’re experiencing is nothing new. In fact, it’s not even the longest period of time in which the Derby has gone without the favorite winning the race. From 1980 through 1999, 20 consecutive runnings of the Kentucky Derby did not see the favorite come out on top.

Interestingly, this current stretch was preceded by a six-year streak in which the favorite won every race from 2013 through 2018. Favorites also won four years in a row from 1972 through 1975.

There are as many as 20 horses in the race at a time, so perhaps it isn’t too surprising that the favorite only wins about a third of the time. Still, it’s enough to make you think twice about blindly backing the horse atop the leaderboard.

What Happened the Last Time the Favorite Won

Justify was the favorite in 2018, but he was anything but a traditional frontrunner. He had only made three starts before the Kentucky Derby, and while he won each time, there was reason to believe that the lights could be too bright for him at Churchill Downs.

Justify had to overcome what became known as the “Curse of Apollo,” a 136-year-old trend that held that no horse could win the race without racing as a two-year-old. Apollo pulled it off in 1882, but it wasn’t until 2018 that another could achieve the feat.

Despite being sealed ahead of time, the track was wet and sloppy from rain, creating challenging field conditions. Despite that, jockey Mike Smith – who had last won the Kentucky Derby in 2005 on 50-1 longshot Giacomo – was able to guide Justify to a convincing win by 2.5 lengths.

Which Horses Have Won the Kentucky Derby Since 2018?

The Kentucky Derby has seen a wide range of winners since 2018. Two of the biggest longshots in the race’s history have come out on top in the years that have followed, one of which was earned via disqualification. Here’s the full list:

2019: Country House at 65-1 (Maximum Security, 9-2, DQ’d)
2020: Authentic at 8-1
2021: Mandaloun at 12-1
2022: Rich Strike at 80-1
2023: Mage at 15-1
2024: Mystik Dan at 18-1
2025: Sovereignty at 7-1

Favorites have still performed relatively well during that time. Improbable, the favorite in 2019, finished fourth. In 2020, Tiz the Law came in second. Essential Quality finished third in 2021. In 2022, Epicenter crossed in second behind Rich Strike. In 2023, it was a third-place finish for Angel of Empire. Forte was scratched in 2024, and Journalism came second in 2025.

All told, the favorites tend to hold their own, even if they don’t win the race outright.

Favorites to Win the 2026 Kentucky Derby

That brings us to this year’s field of potential curse-breakers. Betting lines are subject to change, but as of April 27, BetOnline has Renegade as the betting favorite at +450 to win the Kentucky Derby after the colt drew the dreaded No. 1 starting gate.

Renegade moved to the front of the Derby contenders last month with an impressive win in the Arkansas Derby for owners Mike Repole, Robert Low, and Lawana Low. The thoroughbred blew past the field on the far turn to hit the wire four lengths in front. Renegade will give trainer Todd Pletcher, who has started a record 65 horses in the Derby, a chance at his third winner.

Commandment is the second favorite to win the Derby at +525, followed by Further Ado at +575. Chief Wallabee (+650) and The Puma (+900) round out the top five.

2026 Kentucky Derby horses, odds

Here’s where each horse will start on Saturday, along with the horse’s trainer, jockey, and odds

Renegade, Todd Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr., 4-1
Albus, Riley Mott, Manny Franco, 30-1
Intrepido, Jeff Mullins, Hector Berrios, 50-1
Litmus Test, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 30-1
Right to Party, Kenny McPeek, Chris Elliott, 30-1
Commandment, Brad Cox, Luis Saez, 6-1
Danon Bourbon, Manabu Ikezoe, Atsuya Nishimura, 20-1
So Happy, Mark Glatt, Mike Smith, 15-1
The Puma, Gustavo Delgado, Javier Castellano, 10-1
Wonder Dean, Daisuke Takayanagi, Ryusei Sakai, 30-1
Incredibolt, Riley Mott, Jaime Torres, 20-1
Chief Wallabee, Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 8-1
Silent Tactic, Mark Casse, Cristian Torres, 20-1
Potente, Bob Baffert, Juan Hernandez, 20-1
Emerging Market, Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 15-1
Pavlovian, Doug O’Neill, Edwin Maldonado, 30-1
Six Speed, Bhupat Seemar, Brian Hernandez Jr., 50-1
Further Ado, Brad Cox, John Velazquez, 6-1
Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 30-1
Fulleffort, Brad Cox, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1

In Summary

Favorites win the Kentucky Derby at a fairly high rate of about 34 percent, but don’t ever think they’re a sure thing. We’ve gone as many as 20 consecutive years without seeing one win, and we’re currently in the midst of eight years without a favorite taking the crown.

Perhaps this year will see a return to form, but the unpredictability of the Kentucky Derby remains one of its biggest draws.

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.