The Boston Celtics took the Toronto Raptors to overtime in a loss on Monday, but with most of their stars sitting that game out, can we expect them to throttle the Heat with a mostly healthy roster tonight?
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Wednesday, March 30, 2022 – 07:30 PM EDT at TD Garden
Defense Wins Wednesday
Outside of the Dallas Mavericks and Cleveland Cavaliers game set to help tip-off this massive Wednesday slate, the lowest total on the card tonight is the Celtics and Heat.
Even with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown coming off getting rested on Monday, the NBA oddsmakers are projecting a lower scoring game between these two Eastern Conference contenders.
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The NBA odds have also been moving in favor of the Heat, which is a bit surprising considering how good of a homecourt advantage the Celtics enjoy.
So far this season, the C’s own the league’s best defense and while their metrics do go down slightly at home, they still own the league’s third-best home defense, giving up 105.7 points per 100 possessions at the Garden.
The Heat tends to play good defense regardless of the venue. It’s been one of their calling cards all year.
When healthy, they play well regardless of homecourt advantage and tonight they’ll need every bit of that against this Celtics defense.
Much like Boston at home, the Heat own the league’s third-best defense on the road, allowing 107.7 points per 100 possessions.
If we can count on both of these teams to defend tonight, the total of 215 points may be a bit high. However, there are some personnel issues tonight that have to be taken into account, especially for Boston.
Robert Williams III suffered a torn meniscus recently and will miss the next four-to-six weeks as he recovers.
For those doing the math, that would put him out until at least late in the second round of the NBA playoffs, if not the NBA Conference Finals if it takes Williams longer to recover.
This is a huge blow to Boston. Williams has been the defensive anchor for this team down low all season, and the Celtics are better on both ends of the court with him in the lineup.
Now Boston will have to rely on Al Horford to step into the time machine over the next month and he couldn’t have a tougher assignment to start that journey tonight against Bam Adebayo.
The Sharp Pick
Adebayo has generally been held in check this season against the Celtics, but without the Time Lord to oversee Boston’s defense against the Heat big man, I fear Miami could take advantage of the C’s weakness down low.
If that is the case, I think Miami will have better chances controlling the boards and keeping the C’s to one shot each possession.
If they can force Boston into one-and-done possessions, we should see this total dip under, especially in the first half where the defense should be fully engaged.
Boston owns the league’s best first-half defense, allowing only 102.6 points per 100 possessions and the Heat are eighth in first-half defense, with a DRtg of 108.5.
Combined with what should be a slower pace and the playoff implications of this matchup, I fully expect both teams to be engaged defensively early.
Second-half legs may take over and force both teams to disengage defensively some, but I fully expect this one to be a bloodbath early.
Combine that with Boston’s insane 83.9 defensive rating in two first halves against the Heat and I’m taking the under in the first half. Take this into consideration for your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Under 109.5 1st Half (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
NBA Pick: Under 213 (-110) with Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
