The Buffalo Bills (4-2) had to sulk over their bye week after their loss to the Tennessee Titans on Monday night in Week 6. However, they get back to business against the Miami Dolphins (1-6), one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL this season.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, October 31, 2021 – 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium
The Bills (4-2 ATS) are a 13.5-point favorite over the Dolphins (2-5 ATS) at many of the top sportsbooks. That is expected after the way Buffalo destroyed Miami, 35-0, in Week 2, but the Dolphins have lost on last-second field goals the last two weeks to the Jaguars and Falcons. Can the Dolphins at least keep it closer this time?
Week Two Recap
While Miami has had a poor season, that 35-0 shutout loss to Buffalo stands out as especially terrible. Four of the other six Dolphins games have been decided by three or fewer points. But in Week 2, Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was injured after four pass attempts and he would miss the next few weeks. Backup Jacoby Brissett was unexpectedly called into action and struggled to move the offense.
On the bright side, the Buffalo offense did not have a dominant passing game as Josh Allen only completed 17-of-33 passes for 179 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. The Bills ran the ball well and took advantage of some short fields from Miami mistakes.
What Has Changed?
Buffalo has played some really strong defense at times this season. The Bills also shut out Houston (40-0) a couple of weeks later, though that says more about the state of the Texans than it does Buffalo. Still, the Bills were impressive in Kansas City and then really struggled to stop the Titans in Tennessee. But that is one of the best offenses a team can face right now with some unique talents in Derrick Henry, A.J. Browns, and Julio Jones.
Tua is back for Miami and threw four touchdowns on Sunday against Atlanta, but this is still a limited, dink-and-dunk passing game that continues to miss DeVante Parker. Tua threw the ball 40 times on Sunday but only had one pass play of 20-plus yards.
In Week 17 last year, Tagovailoa made his first start in Buffalo, and it ended poorly with three interceptions in a 56-26 loss. It was a game the Bills technically did not need to win with their playoff seed locked up, but they destroyed the Dolphins who still were trying to get in as a wild card.
There is a significant quarterback advantage here for Buffalo. Allen is 6-1 against the Dolphins and has thrown multiple touchdown passes (19 total to five interceptions) in all seven of those games. He also averages 8.2 yards per pass against the Dolphins, a full yard higher than his average against the rest of the NFL.
On the plus side, corner Xavien Howard returned to action for Miami on Sunday, but he has not been very helpful at taking No. 1 receiver Stefon Diggs out of these matchups. Diggs has caught a touchdown in three of his four meetings with Howard’s Dolphins.
One negative for Buffalo is that tight end Dawson Knox will be out with an injury after he was having a nice breakout season, but the Bills are still loaded with Diggs, Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, and veteran Emmanuel Sanders has proved to be a great addition.
Stats on Division Rematches
Is it hard to beat a division rival by two touchdowns twice in the same season? Yes, it is. From 2002 to 2020, there were 295 instances where a team won the first division meeting by at least 14 points. In 89 of those instances (30.2%), that same team won the rematch by at least 14 points too.
However, we just saw it happen in the 2021 AFC East. The Patriots beat the Jets 25-6 in Week 2 and just hammered them even worse on Sunday by a final of 54-13. What happens when the first meeting is an even bigger blowout like 28-plus points? In those 52 cases, 16 teams (30.7%) followed up with a win of 14-plus points in the rematch, which is about the same percentage as the overall sample. So, about 30% of the time when the first game isn’t close, neither is the rematch.
Predictions
I like Buffalo to get back on track in this matchup for your NFL picks this Sunday. Miami has been a great opponent for Allen, and before the Tennessee loss, the Bills had won four games in a row by at least 18 points.
This team has the potential to still be a juggernaut, and a bad Miami team that has kept it close with lowly Jacksonville and Atlanta the last two weeks is no match for what the Bills can do on both sides of the ball. It won’t be 35-0 again, but I like the Bills to hand Tua his third-career loss of 14-plus points. They have already handed him the first two.
NFL Pick: Bills -13.5 (-110) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
