Every season, there are two types of frontrunners for the Heisman Trophy. One is when players return after elite seasons. They were Heisman contenders last year, and they earned respect due to previous success. Even though it is hard to stack multiple successful seasons, you have to start your list of Heisman contenders this year with the best players from last year.
The other type of frontrunner is a projection. They were either highly-touted recruits or starters who flashed some potential. If a few things change and the player improves, then you can be the first player to be on the bandwagon of the next superstar.
Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield were in this vein. Many are looking for 2022’s version of this player, and a likely candidate is Tyler Van Dyke. In his first season as a starter, Van Dyke threw for 25 touchdowns and six interceptions. With a new head coach, he could be a Heisman contender.
Tyler Van Dyke has +2000 odds to win the Heisman, which is a great value. Can he win the Heisman?
Strengths and Weaknesses
Tyler Van Dyke can make great decisions with the football in his hands. Throwing only six interceptions on 324 attempts is hard to do, and it wasn’t because he was afraid of taking risks. He wasn’t the most explosive quarterback, but he was efficient.
However, he is not a mobile threat like other elite quarterbacks in college football. Some of the most recent Heisman winners were at least mobile. Not all had the running ability of Lamar Jackson, but even quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Baker Mayfield could run around and extend plays.
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With a 62% career completion percentage, Van Dyke also needs to work on his mechanics to limit bad throws. He makes smart decisions, but he can still be more accurate. We’ve seen some of the most accurate quarterbacks in the history of college football since 2018, so a number like this is not elite.
Still, the fact that a player has room for improvement doesn’t mean that he can’t be a Heisman winner. Let’s look at the situation at Miami to see if they are ready to support a Heisman contender.
How Is it Going in Miami?
When you are looking at someone’s value as a Heisman bet, you need to make sure that they are in a position to succeed. Great players rarely win the Heisman without having a solid team around them. Thankfully, Miami should take a step in the right direction this year. They will have a strong defense and a solid tight end, and Van Dyke should expect enough protection to win in the pocket.
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Being the quarterback of a great team is almost a prerequisite to winning the Heisman Trophy. Miami should be competitive in the ACC, but can they truly be one of the best teams in college football? With a tough schedule that includes traveling to play Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, and Clemson, they need to go at least 11-1 to be near the top.
If Miami can upset either Clemson or Texas A&M, Tyler Van Dyke could get his Heisman moment. Quality play in the other games will give him the stats necessary to be in the conversation. So, can he win the Heisman Trophy?
Can Tyler Van Dyke Win the Heisman?
If you look at his talent and the road ahead of him, it is easy to see why Tyler Van Dyke is one of the favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. I don’t believe that he will end up winning the Heisman, but he certainly has the capabilities.
Still, Miami has to prove that they are capable of winning the ACC for him to be a true contender. That is why I think he inevitably fails to win the Heisman Trophy. Miami needs some time with Mario Cristobal to be in the discussion, and that won’t happen this year.
So, can Tyler Van Dyke win the Heisman? In theory, yes. It’s not ridiculous to consider him a candidate. Still, he is listed at +2000 for a reason.
