The top players in the world are all in action as the tennis season is in full swing. With 500 ranking points and a large allocation of prize money, ATP Dubai has attracted many of the top players to their tournament.
As the action continues, let’s go over the draw to find the winning ATP picks.
Mackenzie McDonald vs. Andrey Rublev
Thursday, February 24, 2022 – 06:00 AM EST at Center Court
Betting Preview
Mackenzie McDonald surprised me with his consistent play in his second match here in Dubai, overcoming Filip Krajinovic. McDonald won the match 6-4, 7-6. McDonald had 6 Aces to 4 double faults, served at 54% for his first serve percentage but won 71% of the first serves that he landed.
He also was able to dial-up big serves when he needed and that was the difference in the tiebreaker.
He put plenty of pressure on Krajinovic’s serve, breaking him five times in the two-set match. If Mackenzie McDonald is going to be excellent on return, combined with his powerful serve, he is poised to move up the rankings this season.
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McDonald will face a tough task going against an in-form Andrey Rublev. Rublev is coming off a tournament victory in Marseille, France. Rublev has dispatched Dan Evans and Soonwoo Kwon to start this tournament. Against Kwon, Rublev started slowly, dropping the first set 6-4.
He then raised his form and was able to win the last two sets 6-0, 6-3. When Rublev finds his form like that, there are very few people who can beat him. Rublev is currently ranked seventh in the world.
Betting Analysis
Mackenzie McDonald has beaten Andrey Rublev once, but it was in 2019 at the Australian Open. The match was a spirited 4 set affair with McDonald winning 6-4, 6-4, 2-6, 6-4. The match took place over 3 years ago, so I don't believe there is as much predictive value in this head-to-head as we have seen in others.
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Andrey Rublev is in good form this week, and I'm not as concerned about the fatigue from his long week winning the tournament he played in France, last week.
Mackenzie McDonald showed an excellent return game in his first 2 matches, but Rublev's serve is a tier above the opponents that McDonald has faced. Rublev also should have the advantage in most of the longer rallies.
ATP Pick
Rublev’s groundstrokes have really developed as he has entered into the top 10. If McDonald is going to win this match, he is going to need to raise his first serve percentage much higher, and I don't know if he is yet ready to do that.
I trust Rublev's form and consistency much more in tonight's match. Our first bet for ATP Dubai is Andrey Rublev -1.5 games.
ATP Pick: Andrey Rublev -1.5 Games (-111) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports)
Hubert Hurkacz vs. Jannik Sinner
Thursday, February 24, 2022 - 07:20 AM EST at Center Court
Betting Preview
Hubert Hurkacz has had a relatively smooth path to the quarterfinals so far. In his first match, he soundly defeated Alexander Bublik 6-3, 6-1, a player who I thought could give Hurkacz some trouble.
In his next match, he defeated Alex Molcan 6-3, 6-2. Hurkacz should be relatively fresh going into this match with only 2 hours and 12 minutes of court time so far in this tournament.
Hubert Hurkacz has a style that plays well here in Dubai. The quicker surface accentuates his serve. He has been aggressive on return games, especially when facing an opponent's second serve.
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After coming into the tournament with questions about his form, Hurkacz has definitely raised his level, albeit against a struggling opponent and an inferior opponent so far. Now he faces his sternest challenge against the young gun, Jannik Sinner.
Jannik Sinner is playing in his first tournament since the Australian Open where he fell in the quarterfinals to Stefanos Tsitsipas. Sinner needed three sets to beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 in his first match here in Dubai.
He has definitely found his form as the tournament has progressed, as he beat Andy Murray in rather routine fashion 7-5, 6-2 to advance to today's match.
Betting Analysis
Sinner was very consistent with his first serve hitting 4 Aces and only having 1 double fault. He landed 70% of his first serves and won 83% of those first serves he landed. He won only 41% of his second serve points which shows the importance of consistency on the first serve for Sinner.
This match should be an excellent measuring stick for both players this season. Jannik Sinner is ranked number 10 in the world. Hubert Hurkacz is ranked number 11. This match represents an opportunity for Hurkacz to make a move into the top 10.
Sinner and Hurkacz have played twice before, both in 2021. At the ATP finals in Turin, Sinner won a routine 6-2, 6-2 victory. Last March, Hurkacz was the winner on the slower hard courts of Miami 7-6, 6-4.
ATP Pick
I like Jannik Sinner to get the victory here in Dubai as I've been more impressed with his play this tournament. While Hubert Hurkacz has two victories, Bublik packed it in once he felt some adversity, and I don't rate Molcan very highly. In contrast, Sinner beat 2 much tougher players and has shown resilience so far in this tournament.
I also believe that Sinner's groundstrokes should allow him to put pressure on Hurkacz’s serve. Sinner has a very good serve as well so he'll be able to get points in neutral rally situations.
On the strength of Sinner's groundstrokes, he's going to be my pick. Our second bet for tonight's ATP Dubai is Jannik Sinner -1.5 games according to the best ATP odds available.
ATP Pick: Jannik Sinner -1.5 Games (+137) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
