Well, hello there my fellow bettors! We are back with the second installment of our “friendly” competition among BMR’s best UFC experts and myself.
UFC 273 was fun but slightly disappointing for most of us as Tecia Torres got robbed from her W in a split decision, Khamzat Chimaev wasn’t able to finish-off Gilbert Burns before the scorecards and Mark Madsen drove Vinc Pinchel mad and was able to control the third round to stay undefeated.
So, congrats to Matty Ice, the only one of us that didn’t dig himself into a hole. Also a big shoutout to our forum users Tanko, Enikk, BobbyFK and moderator Wagerallsports for supporting this new project. Maybe we’ll feature one of you in a future article. Having said that, we move onto UFC Vegas 51 and a main card stacked with welterweight talent.
The action returns to what Matt likes to call the “Baby Cage” (patent pending) so let’s dive into some UFC odds for this Saturday!
Mayra Bueno Silva vs. Wu Yanan
UFC Women’s Bantamweight Bout
Saturday, April 16, 2022 – 10:05 PM EDT at UFC Apex
The Preview
This time around we are sticking to the main card and to start off the night we have an exciting matchup between Mayra Bueno Silva and Wu Yanan in the Bantamweight division. Both fighters are very similar physical-wise with the Chinese fighter being just a couple of inches taller.
Play Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
Bueno Silva is coming off a loss against the French prospect, Manon Fiorot. Meanwhile, Yanan suffered the same fate against Joselyne Edwards, totaling her third loss in the last four bouts. Although Yanan is five years younger, the Brazilian's experience could be too much to overcome for her.
Ed's Take
"Mayra Bueno Silva is a high-level grappler while Yanan Wu hasn’t really thrived in any one area. Wu can put forth a high volume of shots but she was picked apart and outwrestled in her three UFC losses (all by decision)." Eduardo Solano
Eduardo's UFC Vegas 51 Pick: Mayra Bueno Silva to Win by Points (-110) [1.10u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Miguel Baeza vs. Andre Fialho
UFC Welterweight Main Card Bout
The Preview
UFC Vegas 51 has a lot of talent on the main card when it comes to the Welterweight division. While it is true that Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad headline Saturday's event, the fight between Miguel Baeza and Andre Fialho should be as exciting. Exhibit A, you ask? Both Dave Manyun and Matt have locks on this bout. I rest my case...
Legal puns aside, Fialho comes into this fight looking to bounce back after dropping his UFC debut to Michel Pereira and going against an opponent like Baeza could be just what the doctor ordered for him...and vice-versa.
Baeza is also coming off a loss and that could put more pressure on a fight that matches up "two martial artists who love to strike..." (Dave's prose, not mine).
David's Take
"...and finish their fights inside the distance should provide an early night for whichever man can find the button. Prior to joining the UFC, Fialho's power was dominant as he entered the promotion on a 4-fight win streak with 4 KO/TKO's.
More Picks: UFC Vegas 51 Prop Betting Picks: The Perfect Proposition
"And for Baeza, only 3 of his 12 professional bouts have gone the distance, mainly because of his high finishing rate since turning pro. The available odds at BMR's top sportsbooks favor Baeza, but I'm more interested in predicting this fight to end inside the distance." David Manyun
Matt's Take
"From the desk of Matt Ryan: Dear Reader… I've already written a lock piece already… but if you're unable to find it or you don't want to read the entirety of my nervous breakdown… peep below:
"Baeza is a bad, bad human who is coming off two straight losses to other bad, bad humans in Khaos Williams and Santiago Ponzinibbio and now has to face off against Andre Fialho. Anywho… Fialho may be a bad human being, but when he gets to the third round, things don’t go well for him, mainly being 2-3 when he gets past the second round.
More Picks: UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs. Muhammad 2 Lock on the Card
"This gives you two potential roles, one being both fighters are super cautious and won’t go all out and just hope to get the win… OR VIOLENCE. And looking at both fighters’ records we'll give you the answer: Bet on violence!" Matt Ryan
David's UFC Vegas 51 Pick: Fight Goes the Distance - No (-180) [1.80u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
Matt's UFC Vegas 51 Pick: Baeza/Fialho Under 1 ½ Rounds (+135) [1u returns 1.35u profit] at BetOnline
Caio Borralho vs. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
UFC Middleweight Co-Main Event Bout
We already mentioned that the Luque vs. Muhammad fight is the main event but what we haven't said is that Caio Borralho and Gadzhi Omargadzhiev will be featured in the co-main event of this card.
Borralho will be making his UFC debut after earning a contract in the Dana White Contender Series but the task might be too much against an undefeated Omargadzhiev who, despite making his debut as well, does possess a technical advantage with his grappling skill.
More Picks: UFC Vegas 51 Co-Main First Look: Borralho vs. Omargadzhiev | Picks, Odds and Predictions
I like the Russian to win and at -140 odds, the juice is not so bad. But if you've read my previous columns, you know I'm a die-hard for value and when I saw the price for the fight to go the distance at +110, I had to take my chances on that.
I feel like the new scenario, the lights and the crowd will play into this betting angle and Omargadzhiev gets a victory on the scorecards.
Ricky's UFC Vegas 51 Pick: Fight Goes the Distance - Yes (+110) [1u returns 1.1u profit] at BetOnline
Vicente Luque vs. Belal Muhammad
UFC Welterweight Main Event Bout
The Preview
Last, but not least, Le rounds off this edition with her lock on the night's main event with two top-ranked welterweight contenders. This fight will offer an interesting clash of styles as Luque is a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Muhammad has a formation in wrestling.
But, why read what I have to say? Le has the perfect breakdown for your UFC picks!
Le's Take
"After UFC 273, I’m deciding to stay away from the MMA props this week, and thankfully the odds on the main event are not that bad…yet. Vicente Luque is currently the favorite, and that number continues to grow, so keep an eye on it. It is at a fairly decent price at the moment.
"Back in 2016 when these two first fought, Luque knocked out Belal 79 seconds into the first round – keep in mind that was Belal’s first and still only KO loss. Given both fighters have grown in terms of their overall skill sets and techniques, I want to give Belal the benefit of the doubt and say his durability will stick and this fight will make it to the scorecards.
More Picks: UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Muhammad II First Look, Betting Picks, Odds and Prediction
"However, Luque is a power puncher and a finisher – as seen in their first bout and throughout Luque’s career. His last 4 consecutive victories have been finished inside the distance with 2 T/KO's and 2 submissions.
"But also, do not take that as ‘Belal is not a threat’. The man is incredibly durable and technical, but I do not think he is a better striker than Luque. I predict Belal will be on his guard against Luque’s punches and will survive a couple of rounds. I just think, the later into the rounds, the odds of a KO are happening, again.
"Belal should survive the first couple of rounds and will eat some heavy punches, but he will be in trouble in the third or fourth round." Le Martin
Le's UFC Vegas 51 Pick: Vicente Luque to Win ML (-171) [1.71u returns 1u profit] at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
