The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-6) pulled off another miraculous win against the Saints on Monday to get back to .500. The San Francisco 49ers (8-4) had an impressive win against the Dolphins, but it was a costly one as quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo broke his foot.
Even with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy making his first start, the Buccaneers are a 3.5-point road underdog at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. With two top defenses and a total of 37 points, can the Buccaneers grind out another tight win by pouncing on a team’s mistakes? Let’s break down the NFL odds.
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, December 11, 2022 – 04:25 PM EST at Levi’s Stadium
Who Is Brock Purdy?
Few teams are as Super Bowl ready as the 49ers with the league’s top-ranked defense led by Nick Bosa, and an incredible collection of skill players led by Deebo Samuel. With Kyle Shanahan’s unique offensive system, it is a dream scenario for a quarterback to start on a team like this.
Unfortunately, the 49ers are turning to a third-string rookie after season-ending injuries to Trey Lance (Week 2) and now Garoppolo (Week 13). The 49ers have fallen behind the Cowboys to third place among NFC team odds to win the Super Bowl this year.
Just who is Brock Purdy, and can he get the job done? Purdy was a seventh-round pick out of Iowa State, the final pick in this year’s draft, making him Mr. Irrelevant. But he can be very relevant if this works out as no rookie quarterback has ever reached a Super Bowl.
Purdy was solid in relief on Sunday, completing 25-of-37 passes for 210 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. He also took three sacks but did lead the offense to five scoring drives (two touchdowns) for a total of 23 points.
If Purdy can score 23 points in this game, then the 49ers are in great shape seeing as how Tampa Bay has scored 23 points once in 12 games. The 49ers have also allowed 20 points just twice.
Will History Repeat Itself?
We have seen plenty of quarterbacks who look decent off the bench when the opponent wasn’t ready for them, then when they have to start the game, things go haywire. The Buccaneers only have two takeaways in their last eight games, but it is still a tough, top-10 defense to score on this year. We know Todd Bowles also loves to blitz and may bring some heat to the inexperienced quarterback.
Since 2001, quarterbacks making their first NFL start against a top-10 scoring defense are 16-55 SU and 32-38-1 ATS. But in games where the quarterback is favored, they are 6-3 SU and 3-6 ATS.
Some of the more famous names to be favored in their first start against a good defense include Russell Wilson (2012), Aaron Rodgers (2008), and Dak Prescott (2016), but those were all Week 1 games where no one really knew anything about them or the opponents yet.
One of the best recent examples of a great first start by a quarterback against a good defense is Colin Kaepernick for the 2012 49ers against the Bears on Monday Night Football. It was a different San Francisco team, one that would reach the Super Bowl, and Kaepernick was in his second year, but he did an incredible job in a 32-7 win. Kaepernick was 16-of-23 for 243 yards and two touchdowns.
Not saying Purdy will do that on Sunday, but let’s just say the bar is high for a backup quarterback taking over a loaded San Francisco roster with Super Bowl aspirations. But we won’t know how he plays as a starter until we see him this Sunday.
Tampa Bay’s Rope-a-Dope Strategy
The Tampa Bay offense is carving out a special place in NFL history for being uniquely terrible. The Buccaneers rank No. 2 in turnovers, No. 1 in lowest sack rate, and No. 27 in scoring. No offense has ever finished in the top two in turnovers and sacks and in the bottom 10 in scoring.
How is this even possible? Start with the No. 32 rushing offense. They can’t run the ball and they won’t run the ball in this game against San Francisco’s top-ranked run defense.
Add the most seasoned quarterback of all time who will get rid of the ball so fast that it is nearly impossible to pressure or sack him. The problem is he doesn’t even let plays develop anymore, so there’s not as much YAC in the offense, his deep ball is shot, and so many of his targets are thrown inches off the ground so they either fall incomplete, don’t get intercepted, or the receiver is tackled well short of the sticks.
Saints, What Happened?
This offense is a joke. But when you pair it with a top-scoring defense, you can hang around in the fourth quarter and hope for a team to keep screwing up. That’s what Tampa Bay did against the Rams and Saints in comebacks that had no business in ever taking off.
The Saints especially coached a terrible fourth quarter with bad decisions on throwing on third-and-short, bad decisions to kick a field goal and punt on fourth-and-short, an inexplicable decision by Mark Ingram to step out of bounds short of a first down, a dropped pass by Taysom Hill on a third-and-17, a 44-yard defensive pass interference, and all the prevent defense you can ask for if you’re Brady.
It was such a clinic on blowing a game that you wonder if the Saints purposely lost despite the fact they don’t even have a first-round pick to gain from it.
Tom Brady Keeps Coming Back
Would a team coached by Kyle Shanahan ever blow a fourth-quarter lead against Brady? Well, there’s Super Bowl 51 as one example. That game was the only time in Brady’s career that he won after trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter, but Monday night was his second such win.
The Rams thought they killed Brady and the Bucs in January. He came back this season. The Rams thought they had him down again in Week 9. He still came back to effectively end their season. The Saints thought they were going to tighten this embarrassing NFC South race, and they blew that one in epic fashion to another Brady comeback.
Bowles is doing a bad job coaching this team, but the incompetency of the opposing coaches in the NFC is keeping this team’s season alive. Do not discount the 49ers blowing this one too.
Eventually, one of these NFC teams is going to have to put a foot down and stop playing prevent against the Buccaneers in the fourth quarter. If defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans wants to be a head coach next year, he needs to show it in this game.
Pick and Prediction
Brady’s quick passes can neutralize a lot of the pass rush from Bosa and company. Despite Sunday’s flurry against Miami, the 49ers do not force a ton of turnovers as seven defenses have more.
If the Buccaneers can win the turnover battle by taking advantage of Purdy’s inexperience, then they can absolutely steal this game for your NFL picks. We have already seen Russell Wilson and the Broncos steal an 11-10 win from these 49ers in Week 3. That was two weeks after the Bears pulled out a 19-10 win in Week 1.
There is also the fact that Shanahan is 9-29 (.237) with quarterbacks not named Garoppolo as his starter. We’ll see if that trend continues as Purdy makes his first start.
Any Sunshine State residents interested in betting this pick at plus money, check out these Florida betting sites.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers ML (+155) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
