NFC Championship Game Best Player Props: Which QB to Trust?

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NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-160) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-160)
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Unlike in the AFC, the 2022 NFC Championship Game is a fresh matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles, the best teams in the conference. One has an MVP finalist quarterback in Jalen Hurts, and the other has a historic rookie in Brock Purdy who can break the glass ceiling and become the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl with a win here. 

Both are bolstered by great-skill players and offensive lines, and they both have a great defense. That is why the game should be a classic as long as one of the quarterbacks does not have that deer-in-the-headlight look against these pass rushes.  

The Eagles are the home team, so they are a 2.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5 points. We have picked out our favorite player props that you can find at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Californians can find these at the top California betting sites. You can use them in a parlay or play your favorite lines as singles. 

San Francisco 49ers vs. Philadelphia Eagles 

Sunday, January 29, 2023 – 03:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field 

Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers) 

  • Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns  
  • Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted 

Brock Purdy has been setting some records this year in a rookie season unlike any other. But last week against Dallas, he did not throw any touchdown passes, ending his record-tying rookie streak of seven straight games with multiple touchdown passes. 

The Eagles only allowed a single touchdown to the Giants last week, though the 49ers bring a much more talented and prolific offense into this matchup. Still, this is a tough defense for a rookie to throw against as the Eagles had 70 sacks in one of the best seasons ever for that metric. They are the No. 1 pass defense thanks to all those negative plays for their opponents. 

The 49ers have formidable running backs and Deebo Samuel can also score from the backfield. Purdy is not likely to throw multiple touchdowns in this game either, though he may get one scoring toss. 

We like the interception even more. The rookie has been getting very lucky this postseason with the Seahawks and Cowboys not coming away with the dangerous passes he has left out there multiple times a game. If he does that against this secondary, chances are the Eagles will make him pay in his first road playoff game. Bet on the Purdy interception for your NFL picks this week.  

NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-160) at Bovada 

NFL Pick: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-180) at Bovada 

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Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-180)
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Jalen Hurts (Philadelphia Eagles) 

  • Under 250.5 Passing Yards 
  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

Hurts has five games this season where he passed for over 250 yards, so he does not do it often. He did it in blowout wins over bad defenses from Pittsburgh (no T.J. Watt) and Minnesota, he did it against the bottom-ranked scoring defense in the league (Bears), and he did it early in the season against Washington (bad start) and late against a Tennessee defense that almost forces you to abandon the run and throw. 

The 49ers have allowed six 250-yard passers, including Geno Smith in the wild-card round after he got his third crack at this top-ranked unit. Patrick Mahomes shredded them for 423 yards, Tom Brady got to 253 yards thanks to being down 35-0 and throwing 55 passes, and Tua Tagovailoa made it to 295 yards. Even Matthew Stafford threw for 254 yards in a game where the Rams scored 9 points. 

The stunner is when Jarrett Stidham, in his first NFL start for the Raiders, passed for 365 yards and three touchdowns in Week 17. Maybe it was the lack of tape on him, but that game was a shocker for this unit. 

But when Hurts played the 49ers early last season, he threw his deepest passes in a game in his career with an average attempt of 14.6 yards down the field. He hit a 91-yard completion to Quez Watkins that somehow still did not score. That made up almost half of his yards too as he finished with 190 passing yards. 

Hurts is a better quarterback now and they added A.J. Brown, but this still feels like a game where the Eagles are going to try to run, even if it means running Hurts himself. He has five games where he did not pass for more than 190 yards this year, so he has been just as likely to do that as he has to throw for 250. 

If there is something we can trust Hurts to do, it would be to score a rushing touchdown. The Eagles have been great at calling those plays this year, and he has delivered with 13 scores in the regular season and one in the playoffs. He is likely the more efficient offense at the goal line than Miles Sanders against this defense. We’ll take Hurts to score another touchdown at plus NFL odds.  

NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada 

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Jalen Hurts Under 250.5 Passing Yards (-115)
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NFL Pick: Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125) at Bovada 

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Jalen Hurts Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+125)
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Deebo Samuel (San Francisco 49ers) 

  • Anytime Touchdown Scorer 

Deebo Samuel’s versatility makes him a great bet in this game as he can get the ball in the backfield, catch a screen, or run a deep or intermediate route. He has so many ways to beat a defense and he is the best wide receiver at creating YAC with the ball in his hands. 

With the running backs, Christian McCaffrey (calf) and Elijah Mitchell (groin), a little banged up, this could be a good value spot for Deebo to pick up a short touchdown that would normally go to one of them.  

NFL Pick: Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170) at Bovada 

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Deebo Samuel Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)
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George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers) 

  • Over 45.5 Receiving Yards 
  • Over 3.5 Receptions  

It would be surprising if this was not a big Kittle game for the 49ers. He is an awesome safety valve for the young quarterback, and Purdy’s connection with him has been great. Kittle made the biggest one-handed catch last week to get San Francisco’s game-winning drive going as he finished with 95 yards on 5 catches. 

The 49ers need to protect Purdy in this matchup from throwing to those outside corners of the Eagles (Darius Slay and James Bradberry). Less Brandon Aiyuk in this game, more George Kittle is the way to do that with throws over the middle of the field. 

Kittle only has seven games with over 45.5 yards this year, but this is the right matchup to unleash him. We’ll fade the touchdown as the Eagles have only allowed three receiving touchdowns to tight ends this year, but the yards and catches should be there.  

NFL Pick: George Kittle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at Bovada 

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George Kittle Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
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NFL Pick: George Kittle Over 3.5 Receptions (-170) at Bovada 

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George Kittle Over 3.5 Receptions (-170)
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A.J. Brown (Philadelphia Eagles) 

  • Over 70.5 Receiving Yards   

Brown was very quiet last week against the Giants with 3 catches for 22 yards. He appeared to ding himself on a late target that Hurts missed, and he looked frustrated with something on the sideline. 

But Brown is a big-game receiver, and last year against the 49ers late in the year, he was a beast again with 11 catches for 145 yards and a touchdown. He may not get there again, but he had at least 70 yards in six straight games (five games of 95-plus yards) before last week’s dud. 

Brown will not have two duds in a row. He should be the leading receiver for the Eagles and probably for the whole game between these teams. Trust him to deliver.  

NFL Pick: A.J. Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-135) at Bovada 

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A.J. Brown Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-135)
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Miles Sanders (Philadelphia Eagles) 

  • Over 51.5 Rushing Yards 

The vaunted San Francisco run defense has no doubt been great, ranked No. 2 in rushing yards and No. 2 in yards per carry (3.4) allowed this year. Only five teams have cracked 100 rushing yards on this unit, and no individual runner has hit 70 yards. Josh Jacobs, the rushing champion in Vegas, came the closest with 69 yards in a game that required overtime for him to get there. 

But this Philadelphia offensive line feels up to the task, and they know it is not ideal to make Hurts a sitting duck for Nick Bosa and company to tee off against. The Eagles just rushed for 268 yards against the Giants last week. 

Also, seven running backs have rushed for over 51.5 yards against the 49ers, so it’s not like they hold everyone under 50. They just hold them under 70, but Miles Sanders has gone over 51.5 rushing yards in all but five games this year, including one in Week 18 against the Giants where he played fewer snaps because of the game script. 

These are not the 2021 Eagles who barely ran the ball with Sanders in the first few games of Nick Sirianni’s tenure. They have arguably the most balanced offense in the league this year, and Sanders will do well in his career year to hit his over.  

Even if he just does what he did last year against the 49ers (13 carries for 55 yards), he will be a productive NFL pick in this game. 

NFL Pick: Miles Sanders Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at Bovada 

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Miles Sanders Over 51.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.