Last Chance Value Picks for NFL Week 16

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Mike Glennon #2 of the New York Giants throws the ball. Rey Del Rio/Getty Images/AFP

At this point, with COVID taking over sports, there’s more value than ever before. The value is due to overreaction. The public is overreacting to one injury or one COVID positive and changing the line by multiple points.

The Saints will more than likely have to start Notre Dame product Ian Book while the Giants might be settling on starting Georgia star Jake Fromm. Why not give these guys a chance? Let’s take a look at the NFL odds and decide which way to lean at top sportsbooks.

New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, December 26, 2021 – 01:00 PM EST at Lincoln Financial Field

The Giants already beat the Eagles earlier this year. At home, New York won 13-7 and pretty much shut down the run game of the Eagles throughout the day. Maybe the Giants have the Eagles’ number on the defensive end.

All I know is that if Jake Fromm gets the start, he can game manage this game, protect the football and give the Giants a chance to win. I’m not going to give out a +400 underdog, but I do think there’s value for the Giants at +10 with Fromm under center. If the Giants elect to go with Mike Glennon, then I’d probably stay away.

But for some reason, the Giants always play it tight against the Eagles. This is a rivalry game. These are the games that even bad teams get excited for. The Giants have allowed 21 or fewer points in three of their last five games and one of those games was against the Eagles, of course.

The offense is only averaging 17 points per game but the Giants, with a new quarterback that needs an opportunity, could see improvement. The Eagles are substantially better than the Giants on offense, but I wouldn’t say the same defensively. For my NFL pick, I’m giving Fromm a chance. You’d be surprised what he’s capable of. He just needs an opportunity.

NFL Pick: Giants +10 (-113) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Giants +10 (-113)
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Miami Dolphins vs. New Orleans Saints

Monday, December 27, 2021 - 08:15 PM EST at Caesars Superdome

So the Saints are home, going up against a hot Dolphins team, and are +1.5 against the spread. There’s so much value on the Saints. Yes, I know it’ll be Ian Book starting for the Saints, but are you aware that the Saints have allowed just nine points in the last two games this season.

One of those games was against Tampa Bay! The quarterback situation hasn’t been great at all this season for the Saints. Taysom Hill was clearly the best option. But it’s not like the Saints can’t open up some of the Hill packages for Book.

Book has nearly a full week to prepare for this game and won’t just be thrown into the mess. He’ll be prepared and was a stud for Notre Dame, taking them to a CFP Semifinal game. The Dolphins, on the other hand, continue to beat bad teams in the second half of the season.

There’s no knocking that. Every team gets to play bad teams throughout the year. But the winning streak is more because of playing the Jets, Giants, and Panthers, to name a few. The Saints won’t make it easy, especially at home, against the Dolphins.

NFL Pick: Saints +2 (-110) with BetOnline

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Saints +2 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.