Chiefs vs. Broncos NFL Week 18 Odds, Preview and Pick

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Jonathan Harris #92 of the Denver Broncos and teammates celebrate a defensive stop. Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images/AFP.

The Kansas City Chiefs will end their regular season in Denver against the Broncos. The Chiefs still have a chance for the number one seed but they will need a victory against the Broncos. The Chiefs are heavily favored, but are they the right NFL pick?

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos

Saturday, January 08, 2022 – 04:30 PM EST at Empower Field at Mile High

Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos were officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 34-13 loss to the Chargers on Sunday. The Broncos were essentially eliminated the day that QB Teddy Bridgewater was injured. In Bridgewater's absence, the passing game has not done enough to prevent opponents from keying on the Broncos' impressive run game. Now the Broncos head to Kansas City to play spoiler against their division rivals.

The Broncos pass game took a further hit this Sunday when wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick were ruled out with COVID protocols. Most likely these receivers will return to help the Broncos offense. Teddy Bridgewater and QB Drew Lock are also listed as questionable for Week 18 as well.

The Broncos had a pretty good season, but they came up short in the end. Even though the Broncos were victims of bad luck this season, this most likely will be head coach Vic Fangio's last game as the leader of the Denver Broncos.

The Denver Broncos defense gave up an average of 18.4 points per game. This was good for the third-best OPPG(opponent points per game) in the league. Unfortunately, the offense only averaged 19.4 points per game. It's safe to say the problem with the Broncos does not lie on the defensive end of the field. The Broncos are the only team in the top 10 of OPPG to not have a winning record.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs lost 34-31 in Cincinnati on Sunday to knock them out of the coveted number one seed in the AFC. The Chiefs defense had been putting up impressive results against weaker opponents, but going against an elite offense once again displayed some of the flaws of this Chiefs defensive unit. Against the very best offenses, the Chiefs are simply going to have to score more. They cannot count on this defensive unit to get the crucial stops.

If there is any team built to outscore their opponents, it is Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs throw early and often and have two of the best weapons in the game in WR Tyreek Hill and TE Travis Kelce. The Chiefs are missing a reliable third weapon on offense, a role filled last year by Sammy Watkins. If the Chiefs fail to win the Superbowl this year, one must wonder if their failure to address the number 3 receiver position was the fatal mistake.

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QB Patrick Mahomes had 259 yards passing with 2 touchdowns and zero interceptions but it wasn't enough against Joe Burrow and the Bengals. RB Darrell Williams did an excellent job with 14 attempts for 88 yards rushing and 2 touchdowns. WR Mecole Hardman had one big play for 53 yards, but overall was not a major impact on the defense. Tyreek Hill also had a quiet day with 6 receptions for just 40 yards. Travis Kelce had a touchdown pass, but 5 receptions for 25 yards is a quiet day by his standards.

After such a disappointing performance against the Bengals that cost them their first-round seed, the Chiefs will be eager to get back on track. The Chiefs still do need to win in order to keep their high playoff seeding. I think we can expect the very best game plan from the Chiefs going against the stout Denver defense.

Key Matchup

Chiefs offensive line vs. Denver defense line. Denver has an excellent secondary, yet when the defense is really hitting on all cylinders is when they are getting pressure on the quarterback. The Chiefs revamped their offensive line in the offseason, and at first, it was definitely a struggle. As the season has progressed, the Chiefs' offensive line has started to get the continuity of a winning, experienced football team. The Broncos have a great secondary, but it's tough to shut down the Chiefs' elite receivers all game.

For Denver to truly shut down Kansas City, their pass rush is going to have to be effective. They're going to need to win at the line of scrimmage to limit the Chiefs' running game and turn them into a one-dimensional passing attack.

If Denver is able to shut down the run and get pressure on Patrick Mahomes, Denver has a good chance to play spoiler against their division rivals.

If the Chiefs offensive line holds up, it could be a big day for the Kansas City offense.

Best Bet

Although the Chiefs have had a nice little ATS run recently, overall they haven't been good against the spread last two seasons. I don't believe Denver will just roll over because they've been eliminated, they will definitely be up for their game against their rivals. Denver will see this as an opportunity to end their season on a good note and I can see them keeping it close and playing a tough game.

The 10 points of NFL odds are too steep and we will grab the dog to end the season on a high note. The best bet in this game is the Denver Broncos +10 at one of BMR's best sportsbooks.

NFL Pick: Denver Broncos +10 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Denver Broncos +10 (-115)
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