Best Bets and Prediction for Cowboys vs. Rams on NFL Week 5

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Michael Gallup #13 of the Dallas Cowboys runs with the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles in the first quarter of the game at Lincoln Financial Field. Elsa/Getty Images/AFP

The Los Angeles Rams (2-2) will host the Dallas Cowboys (3-1) in an important game in the NFC playoff race, after Dallas has won three in a row and the Rams fell hard in prime time to the 49ers on Monday night.

The Rams are a 4-point home favorite with a total of 45.5 points at many of the top-rated sportsbooks. Let’s break down the NFL odds and look at our best picks and predictions for this Week 5 matchup.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Rams

Sunday, October 09, 2022 – 04:25 PM EDT at SoFi Stadium

Cowboys: Is Cooper Rush the Real Deal for Dallas?

Some NFL teams do not have one good quarterback, let alone two, but something very interesting is happening in Dallas right now with Cooper Rush improving his record to 4-0 as a starter (3-0 in 2022) for the injured Dak Prescott (thumb).

Rush is fourth in the NFL in QBR (73.9), or 10 spots ahead of the 14th-ranked Matthew Stafford (49.6) this season. Rush is the second quarterback in NFL history, joining Kurt Warner, to throw for at least 200 yards with a touchdown pass and a win in each of his first four starts. Rush is also the second quarterback in NFL history to lead three game-winning drives in his first three starts, which had not been done since Virgil Carter back in 1968.

Head coach Mike McCarthy has often done a good job of preparing a backup quarterback to play for an injured starter going back to his days in Green Bay, but the team usually didn’t win many of those games when Aaron Rodgers was out. There were just decent statistical achievements and big comebacks led by the likes of Matt Flynn and Brett Hundley.

An Upset May Be on the Horizon for the Cowboys

Rush is not lighting up the scoreboard, but Dallas has scored 20-to-25 points in all four of his starts. His efficiency numbers are solid with at least a 90.0 passer rating in all four starts, and he has averaged over 7.5 yards per pass attempt in three out of four starts.

Rush is not flashy, but he has avoided mistakes as the Dallas offense has had no turnovers from him in the last three starts. Still, his production makes him more than an extreme caretaker, and it’s not like Dallas is getting 200 yards per game on the ground.

But one thing Rush has enjoyed is a defense that has yet to allow 20 points in any of his starts. If Dallas can keep that going against a Los Angeles team that has games with 10, 20, and nine points this season, then an upset is very possible.

Rams: Is Matthew Stafford Okay?

The dark cloud hanging over the Rams’ offseason and quest to repeat as champions was the health of Matthew Stafford’s arm. He did not throw during the offseason to rest his arm. He was held out of drills in training camp after dealing with what was reported to be “elbow discomfort.”

Still, Stafford started in Week 1 against the Bills on opening night, and he couldn’t have felt much better after getting sacked seven times.

But the protection improved, Stafford took one sack in each of the two games, and he was completing over 70% of his passes every week even if the deep balls weren’t connecting in an offense that has missed having Van Jefferson, Robert Woods, or Odell Beckham Jr.

Lack of Options in Offense Is a Concern

Stafford has not found any chemistry with new addition Allen Robinson, and he is locking heavily onto Cooper Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee.

Throwing to Kupp is never a bad idea, but the lack of other options showing up for this offense has been a concern. The running game with Cam Akers also isn’t producing.

When facing a tough San Francisco defense on Monday night, Stafford failed to lead a single touchdown drive and threw his fifth pick-six since joining the Rams last year. It was the second week in a row Stafford failed to throw a touchdown pass, something he had not done since December 2016.

Is the elbow worse off than feared? That would be speculation, but even some of Stafford’s decision-making is lacking right now as he took another seven sacks on Monday night and could have easily had multiple interceptions if defenders could catch better.

Stafford's Prop Pick

The Rams’ offense in its current state may be no match for elite defenses like Buffalo and San Francisco this year. Is Dallas the same way? Micah Parsons (4.0 sacks) is leading an impressive pass rush for a unit that ranks highly in many areas. Turnovers are one of the few areas where the Cowboys are struggling this year – four in four games – after leading the NFL with 34 takeaways a year ago.

We always knew that number would regress for Dan Quinn’s defense this year, but if the Cowboys can keep putting this much pressure on quarterbacks, then the turnovers should be coming.

In fact, it would be a good prop pick in this game to bet on Stafford to throw an interception. Corner Trevon Diggs should certainly have some chances to jump routes intended for Kupp since we know the ball isn’t going to Robinson or the running backs.

NFL Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

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Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Interceptions Thrown (-130)
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Over/Under Prediction: Will the Game Be High Scoring?

The Cowboys and 49ers are the only teams to not allow 20 points in a game this season. We mentioned Rush has always been able to get Dallas to 20 points, but not much higher.

The Rams cannot reliably go above that number right now, but as they regrouped after the Buffalo loss on opening night, expect Sean McVay to get a better effort this week. He rarely loses two in a row.

But the over does look intriguing for this game since both teams have some great weapons. The Rams just happen to rely heavily on Kupp, but he delivers better than anyone at the position right now.

Still, Dallas has the better backfield and the better overall receiving corps now that Michael Gallup is back. He only had 24 yards in his 2022 debut, but he caught a touchdown and drew two pass interference flags that were worth about 60 more yards to his team. He is a legit No. 2 to complement CeeDee Lamb and Noah Brown.

I think this one can get both teams into the low 20s, so I will take the over.

NFL Pick: Over 45.5 Points (-110) at Bovada

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Over 45.5 Points (-110)
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Cowboys vs. Rams Best Bet

McVay is 16-10-1 ATS after a loss, but McCarthy is 11-7 ATS on the road with Dallas since 2020 (tied for the fourth-best record).

More than that, it is hard to trust the Rams right now against an elite defensive front, which the Cowboys can claim to have in 2022.

The Dallas offense is also gaining confidence and healthy players. The Rams may still very well win this game, but take the Cowboys to cover for your NFL picks.

Score Prediction: Rams 24 - Cowboys 23

NFL Pick: Cowboys +4 (-110) at Bovada

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Cowboys +4 (-110)
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.