NCAAF Pick: Washington +4 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Alamo Bowl features a pair of ranked Power Five teams as the No. 20 Texas Longhorns stay in their home state to face the No. 12 Washington Huskies.
Some of the luster was taken off the game after a large number of Texas players either transferred or opted out following the regular season, while Washington has remained largely intact.
The Longhorns enter on a two-game winning streak after finishing 8-4, 6-3 in the Big 12, good for third place. Washington has won six straight and is 10-0, 7-2 in the Pac-12 and tied for second place. What else can the NCAAF odds tell us about this bowl?
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Texas Longhorns vs. Washington Huskies
Thursday, December 29, 2022 – 09:00 PM EST at the Alamodome
Longhorn Stampede
Texas has seen a rash of departures since the end of the regular season. Opt-outs for the NFL Draft have transformed the Longhorns from one of the deepest running back rotations in the country to a bare cupboard as Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson are skipping the game to get ready for Draft Day.
Robinson led college football with 1,894 yards from scrimmage and led the Big 12 in rushing, touchdowns, all-purpose yards, and scoring. Johnson added 500 rushing yards. That leaves Texas with redshirt freshman Jonathon Brooks and true freshman Jaydon Blue as the top-ground options.
That puts more pressure on the Texas passing game, which has been inconsistent under quarterback Quinn Ewers, also a freshman. His 1,808 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, and six interceptions weren’t eye-popping, and neither was his sub-60% completion rate. Two receivers—Isaiah Neyor and Jaden Alexis—are battling injury, and another receiver and two linemen hit the transfer portal.
On defense, the Horns lost linebacker DeMarvion Overshown to opt-out. A linebacker, edge rusher, and DB have all transferred. Overshown is by far the biggest loss. The team got a glimpse of what it will be like without him when he took a targeting ejection against Texas Tech and the defense imploded without him, blowing a second-half lead. The defense will still have linebacker Jaylan Ford, who led the team in tackles, interceptions, and forced fumbles.
Hoping for More
The Huskies missed out on a shot at the Pac-12 championship game when they lost a tiebreaker to Utah. So the Alamo Bowl, their first trip to the bowl since their coach was Steve Sarkisian, who is now in his second year as Texas coach, is a step down from the possibility of a College Football Playoff berth or a Rose Bowl bid.
Still, the Huskies seem to be motivated to appear in the game, based on the team’s approach to it. There are no major opt-outs or transfers hitting the team following the close of the regular season, even star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. announced that he’s playing and returning next season.
Penix led the nation in passing yards with 4,354 and will set the school’s single-season mark in the first half. He had 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He started his career at Indiana and has suffered season-ending injuries in each of his previous campaigns, meaning that this bowl game will be his first, an opportunity he wasn’t willing to miss.
Washington will have defensive linemen Jeremiah Martin and Bralen Trice for the game. The duo combined for 16.5 sacks and gave the Huskies the best pass rush in the Pac-12. With Texas losing nearly its entire run game for the bowl, Martin and Trice should have a field day zeroing in on Ewers.
The Picks
With Texas losing both top running backs, the Longhorns' offense becomes dangerously one-dimensional, which could be a major problem with Washington’s pass rush. The Huskies have had a shaky secondary at times this season, so if Ewers can find time, he might be able to hit some big plays.
More likely, for our NCAAF pick, is that Washington is able to keep toothless Texas in check. The Longhorns will also feel the absences on defense, trying to stop Penix and the Washington offense.
NCAAF Pick: Washington +4 (-110) at BetOnline
NCAAF Pick: Over 67.5 (-108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
