Prediction trading platforms like Polymarket are coming under fire for trading contracts that are predicated on the recent United States military actions in Iran, with props being paid on the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Death to a Dictator Pays Off
Prediction markets have been hotly debated since entering the sports-betting realm shortly before the 2025 Super Bowl. Major platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Crypto.com have all operated unfettered in all 50 states under the auspices of the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission, much to the chagrin of state gaming regulators.
Those legal battles continue to rage, but contracts being offered on the outcome of war with Iran have traversed the line between legality and morality. The date of a US strike was one contract that had been answered, generating over $529 million in trading volume.
Moreover, so too has the question of when Ali Khamenei would be out as Supreme Leader on the Kalshi and Polymarket platforms. This question triggered over $54 million in trading on the Kalshi platform alone.
Kalshi’s fine print states, “If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve upon the confirmed reporting of his death, based on the last traded price prior to his death. If the price is unclear, the Outcome Review Committee will determine a fair market value.”
Polymarket revealed recently the ceasefire date between the US and Iran is as follows:
- March 2 – $1.5 million
- March 6 – $535,086
- March 15 – $188,464
- March 31 – $237,289
- April 30 – $88,850
It was announced that Ali Khamenei and dozens of top Iranian authorities were killed in a missile strike last Saturday, which signaled the end of that particular contract. But other contracts regarding the war remain open, including questions as to who will replace Khamenei as the Supreme Leader of Iran and several other war-related props.
Political Outrage
The trading of these contracts has already infuriated several legislators.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy took to X to express his disapproval, writing, “It’s insane this is legal… I’m introducing legislation ASAP to ban this.”
Democrat California Congressman Mike Levin also posted the following on X: “Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action. We need answers, transparency, and oversight.”
However, Kalshi has responded to the political outrage when CEO Tarek Mansour posted his own X response, writing, “We don’t list markets directly tied to death.” He added that his platform limits profiting from death when it can affect outcomes.
Mansour went on to post, “In these instances, we make the caveat clear in the rules and in the market page, but today is a good lesson that we can do more in terms of improving the UX and adding more ways to surface the rules. We are committed to improving.”
Amanda Fischer of Better Markets, a former SEC chief of staff, referred to the war contracts being traded as a “proxy market on assassination.”
Whether contracts like these will be allowed in the future is a debate just getting started. Bookmakers Review will continue to monitor the topic and report back on this story, as well as on plenty of sportsbook news.
