Why is nobody posting these plays??

[carolinakid]

From watching live numbers from outs that i trust that does a lot of money bets, from sharps

 

[JDS]

True but Richmond sucks

lol

Mike did you play Fordham ?

 

[Pimike]

Ok let’s see how they close the 1st half here.

 

[Pimike]

Mike did you play Fordham ?

First half last second

 

[JDS]

First half last second

Nice win

 

[Pimike]

No time to post plus very small bet

 

[pete0]

Yeah I feel like the biggest liabilities in the sportsbooks those are the plays we need to find and play in the long run.

Exactly!

It dosent matter if its high profile / low profile games.
Sure one could really try to follow the breadcrumbs of info on not so well known teams and beat the book as well.

But the high profile ones are where its at. Its much easier to cap. infact, u dont even have to look at stats, know a single players name , injuries etc. the line and popularity of the team + the major "story line" will tell u everything.

If a road team is 1-9 and the home team is 9-1 W/L , which ATS would an avg. gambler take ?
one should blindly take the 1-9 team ATS.
For example , through 17 weeks of NFL... there are about ~100 prime time games..
These games take WAY more action $ wise compared to ALL the afternoon ones combined on that day.

Now, are the books really trying to go like 40w-60L on these games? HELL NO.
Books are not computers, and the games we're betting on are not robots either.
otherwise any1 could pull a calculator out and win all the time.
They are human beings just like us. and All human beings are selfish by nature.

Sure they could plug all the info, stats, etc.
((btw which is way more/accurate than all of us on this forum could ever acquire -
and all of it , is already factored into the line))
+ each teams market value, spit out the closest projection no.
Take the ~10% juice (~4.5 % profit long term) and call it a day.
But WHY do that?, when they already know the probable outcomes of most of these games.
(esp. from the ledger/profiles of sharp players $ coming in )
So shade the line even more and trap the avg. bettor = gain even more profit.

There is a reason why the true % consensus of no. of tickets & total $ amount on each side from any major book is not public information.

Sure, Nothing is a 100% . maybe a key player gets injured, maybe he found out his wife cheated on him last night, maybe he didnt sleep well, or is too hungover.. who tf knows. But I truly believe for a good 2/3rds + of the games. ESP. the high profile games.. the books already know the Most PROBABLE (80%+ certainty) outcome/ comfortable ATS win by tip off.

Quite simply depends on if ur siding with the book or the hook(bait)

Thoughts?

 

[JDS]

Exactly!

It dosent matter if its high profile / low profile games.
Sure one could really try to follow the breadcrumbs of info on not so well known teams and beat the book as well.

But the high profile ones are where its at. Its much easier to cap. infact, u dont even have to look at stats, know a single players name , injuries etc. the line and popularity of the team + the major "story line" will tell u everything.

If a road team is 1-9 and the home team is 9-1 W/L , which ATS would an avg. gambler take ?
one should blindly take the 1-9 team ATS.
For example , through 17 weeks of NFL... there are about ~100 prime time games..
These games take WAY more action $ wise compared to ALL the afternoon ones combined on that day.

Now, are the books really trying to go like 40w-60L on these games? HELL NO.
Books are not computers, and the games we're betting on are not robots either.
otherwise any1 could pull a calculator out and win all the time.
They are human beings just like us. and All human beings are selfish by nature.

Sure they could plug all the info, stats, etc.
((btw which is way more/accurate than all of us on this forum could ever acquire -
and all of it , is already factored into the line))
+ each teams market value, spit out the closest projection no.
Take the ~10% juice (~4.5 % profit long term) and call it a day.
But WHY do that?, when they already know the probable outcomes of most of these games.
(esp. from the ledger/profiles of sharp players $ coming in )
So shade the line even more and trap the avg. bettor = gain even more profit.

There is a reason why the true % consensus of no. of tickets & total $ amount on each side from any major book is not public information.

Sure, Nothing is a 100% . maybe a key player gets injured, maybe he found out his wife cheated on him last night, maybe he didnt sleep well, or is too hungover.. who tf knows. But I truly believe for a good 2/3rds + of the games. ESP. the high profile games.. the books already know the Most PROBABLE (80%+ certainty) outcome/ comfortable ATS win by tip off.

Quite simply depends on if ur siding with the book or the hook(bait)

Thoughts?

Mid to late season is where you can spot these insufficiencies more clearly, because we have data to analyze. The first quarter and half of the season you can get away with following the teams that are hot and cold ATS. Mid to late season you’ll get buried my fellow gamblers.

 

[pete0]

Ofc. just look at today's game.

NO.3 Houston (-11.5 !!) @ unranked Temple. is the only prime high profile game on a sunday.
What would u guess the books on leaning on ? Ofc. Temple to cover... so i'm just going to take them.

like it does not even matter what the spread is ... its still going to probably not cover. simply becuz most ppl at first glance would say , yea i like Houston.. they should beat em down.

Like i cant even name a single player in entire NCAAB. nor do i ever watch it.

simply by looking at the situation.
its a singular top25. game on a SUNDAY. any joe blow would go , a No. 3! Ranked Houston vs an UNranked team ? HOU should crush them... by like what 10pts? spread is a 11.5 tho ( 1.5 more shading) - kind of like why arent things simply 5$ or 10$ ? instead 4.95.. 9.99... its psychological.
by the time u get to the counter its 6.xx or 11.xx $ something, including tax etc.

So i'm taking temple ATS blindly and even sprinkling some on the ML.
it dosent matter if they get blown out. LONG term- these are the plays i think are sharp.
no research neccessary

 

[JDS]

Like i cant even name a single player in entire NCAAB. nor do i ever watch it.

simply by looking at the situation.
its a singular top25. game on a SUNDAY. any joe blow would go , a No. 3! Ranked Houston vs an UNranked team ? HOU should crush them... by like what 10pts? spread is a 11.5 tho ( 1.5 more shading) - kind of like why arent things simply 5$ or 10$ ? instead 4.95.. 9.99... its psychological.
by the time u get to the counter its 6.xx or 11.xx $ something, including tax etc.

So i'm taking temple ATS blindly and even sprinkling some on the ML.
it dosent matter if they get blown out. LONG term- these are the plays i think are sharp.
no research neccessary

Same page Pistol Pete

 

[JDS]

No way Fordham holds this lead throughout

 

[JDS]

No way Fordham holds this lead throughout

Yeah didn’t think so & now they are threatening to cover this spread.

 

[JDS]

A very reputable computer model in my opinion is showing this for the game I mentioned.

View attachment 9087

Richmond wins and covers, this is your typical bait and switch by these sportsbooks.

 

[pete0]

guys, 1/4th to 1/3rd of the games are right on the number. meaning the books themselves have no idea about the outcome, its a projected, computer/AI spit out no. that the linemaker then shades it based on market value/ semi-injuries/weather etc. etc. or its a 1 score game either way . + they dont give a chit about these no-name teams . win/ lose. anyways.
Meaning ur actually betting on a roulette wheel , black/white? or pulling a slot machine handle... win/lose? hoping for the best.

now if u Really* follow some fordham / north. dakota whoever tF team. and have an actual consistent read on it , good for u.

They spit out a computer/AI generated no. the linemaker then factors in market value, semi-injuries etc. ,+ they know its a low profile game and ++++ they dont freaking care.
its the big high profile games, ,that the books are trying to make most $ come to the attractive/ losing side. books arent there to lose. its a business. and the sole purpose of a business is to make a profit.
no matter what ( at times ).

esp. basketball, like JDS said above. its a game of stretches/runs. being up 10-1 beginning of the game. means absolutely nothing. only the final result matters.

 

[carolinakid]

boy it some ugly games going in the college today for sure

 

[quantumleap]

From watching live numbers from outs that i trust that does a lot of money bets, from sharps

Thanks for the reply, ck!

 

[JDS]

so take Memphis , fade Iona, & take Richmond all ATS correct?


Coach, call me.

Let’s see if we can get Memphis -3 for a profit Petey.

 

[quantumleap]

If a road team is 1-9 and the home team is 9-1 W/L , which ATS would an avg. gambler take ?
one should blindly take the 1-9 team ATS.
For example , through 17 weeks of NFL... there are about ~100 prime time games..
These games take WAY more action $ wise compared to ALL the afternoon ones combined on that day.

It's funny you say that. Just yesterday I was taking the home teams with good home records playing against road teams with bad road records. The road teams covered more than the home teams. I lost quite a few units. Then I started doing the opposite later in the day.

A couple games coming later today:
Penn St (3-7 on the road) playing Nebraska (7-3 at home) and Penn State is favored! I took Penn St. -5.
Stanford (3-8 on the road) playing Colorado (10-2 at home). I took Stanford +5.

Now, are the books really trying to go like 40w-60L on these games? HELL NO.
Books are not computers, and the games we're betting on are not robots either.
otherwise any1 could pull a calculator out and win all the time.
They are human beings just like us. and All human beings are selfish by nature.

Exactly. They still have to play the games. One simple thing could disrupt the momentum of a team and there goes the cover.

There is a reason why the true % consensus of no. of tickets & total $ amount on each side from any major book is not public information.

Spot on. If it were, we could use that info to win more than lose.

Sure, Nothing is a 100% . maybe a key player gets injured, maybe he found out his wife cheated on him last night, maybe he didnt sleep well, or is too hungover.. who tf knows. But I truly believe for a good 2/3rds + of the games. ESP. the high profile games.. the books already know the Most PROBABLE (80%+ certainty) outcome/ comfortable ATS win by tip off.

Interesting. I've thought that too and for years tried to see which side the "sharp" books are on but haven't been able to figure that out.

 

[quantumleap]

Ofc. just look at today's game.

NO.3 Houston (-11.5 !!) @ unranked Temple. is the only prime high profile game on a sunday.
What would u guess the books on leaning on ? Ofc. Temple to cover... so i'm just going to take them.

like it does not even matter what the spread is ... its still going to probably not cover. simply becuz most ppl at first glance would say , yea i like Houston.. they should beat em down.

Temple beat Houston in Houston last month. Now they are 10 1/2 point underdogs at home today.

I'm taking Temple.

Thanks for the input.

 

[JDS]

It's funny you say that. Just yesterday I was taking the home teams with good home records playing against road teams with bad road records. The road teams covered more than the home teams. I lost quite a few units. Then I started doing the opposite later in the day.

A couple games coming later today:
Penn St (3-7 on the road) playing Nebraska (7-3 at home) and Penn State is favored! I took Penn St. -5.
Stanford (3-8 on the road) playing Colorado (10-2 at home). I took Stanford +5.


Exactly. They still have to play the games. One simple thing could disrupt the momentum of a team and there goes the cover.


Spot on. If it were, we could use that info to win more than lose.

Interesting. I've thought that too and for years tried to see which side the "sharp" books are on but haven't been able to figure that out.

If you knew a sportsbook Pit Boss in the industry this would be very valuable information, because he could decipher for you. That’s if he wanted to help you of course.