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UFC 277 expert picks and best bets: Will Amanda Nunes and Brandon Moreno get the job done?
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIALOn Saturday, two titles will be on the line at UFC 277 inside the American Airlines Center in Dallas (10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV).
The card will be headlined by a rematch between Julianna Peña and Amanda Nunes for the women's bantamweight title in the main event, with Brandon Moreno and Kai Kara-France fighting for the interim men's flyweight title in the co-main event.
Both Nunes and Moreno will enter the Octagon looking to reclaim their respective belts. Nunes is the former women's bantamweight champion and current women's featherweight champ. Moreno is the former champion of the men's flyweight division.
The last time we saw Peña and Nunes go head-to-head in the Octagon, fans were rewarded with one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Will the rematch top that performance?
Marc Raimondi spoke to UFC women's strawweight fighter Angela Hill and Fight Ready MMA coach Santino DeFranco to get their perspectives on the two title fights. Ian Parker and Reed Kuhn added their insight and analysis for both fights and some intriguing bets they like lower on the card.
Women's bantamweight: Julianna Peña vs. Amanda Nunes
Angela Hill, UFC women's strawweight fighter
Tale Of The Tape
| PEÑA | NUNES | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32.9 | 34.2 |
| Height | 66.0 | 68.0 |
| Reach | 69.0 | 69.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Dec. 11, 2021 | Dec. 11, 2021 |
How Nunes wins: Keep her punches long and straight. Maybe fight a little more like a counterfighter, because it's hard to keep Peña away just by hitting her hard. If Peña can take the punches, she will keep eating them and coming forward and crushing the range. Nunes needs to take a more counter approach, using her check hooks, long straight crosses and combinations as she's moving backward. She'll hit Peña with the same power because Peña's pressure is so predictable. Nunes needs to mix it up, too. If she hurts Peña, she can go in for the kill on the ground, go for submissions -- take Peña out of there before she has a chance to get her wind back.
X factor: For Peña, it's her pressure and being unorthodox with her striking. It's hard to mimic what she brings to the table. Since her debut on "The Ultimate Fighter," it's always been confusing why people wilt under her pressure. You can see the openings from the outside looking in but not when you're in there. I've fought people like that. When you're in front of that person, the openings don't look as accessible. Peña has a good poker face, and she doesn't give up. That tenacity is an X factor.
Prediction: I think Peña is going to win. It depends on whether the injury stuff with Nunes made a difference. Nunes has said she got rocked in the first fight, but I've also heard it was her gas tank. Maybe they're just trying to make sense of it. It's a testament how nasty Peña can make her fights. It tells me Peña can do something right -- and she can do it again.
Betting analysis
UFC 277: Peña Vs. Nunes 2
| Stand-up striking offense | Peña | Nunes |
| Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 0:0 | 5:0 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 0.0% | 2.7% |
| Head jab accuracy | 30% | 35% |
| Head power accuracy | 40% | 44% |
| Stand-up strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.72 | 0.48 |
| Takedown accuracy | 55% | 54% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 18 | 34 |
| Takedown defense | 22% | 82% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 51% | 82% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.20 | 0.27 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Kuhn: Nunes to win (-280). The betting world wants to know whether we'll see a repeat of Round 1 or 2 of the first meeting between Nunes and Peña. Nunes dominated the beginning of the fight but then seemed to take damage while brawling in the second, leading to poor ground positions and eventually a submission.
Now that she's tasted defeat for the first time in more than seven years, we expect Nunes to stick closer to her game plan. Her stand-up striking metrics are still favorable versus Peña, though Nunes would benefit from tighter defense. The ground game is where Nunes should have a bigger advantage to win rounds and perhaps set up a submission of her own.
Parker: Over 1.5 rounds (-200). Peña pulled off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history at UFC 269, as she defeated the greatest women's fighter of all time in Nunes. In that, I picked over 1.5 rounds, and we hit that play with little time to spare. I am going with the same play in the rematch, even though Nunes' odds have decreased tremendously.
Unlike the first fight, I don't believe both fighters will come out swinging away and risk gassing out early. I believe Nunes' cardio won't be an issue here. She will likely take a more measured approach in the first round, as she probably expects Peña to try to wrestle her. Peña now understands Nunes' power and cannot rely on her gassing out, so I believe she'll wrestle and try to close the distance to avoid that. If a finish does happen, I think it will come in the later rounds.
Men's flyweight: Brandon Moreno vs. Kai Kara-France
Santino DeFranco, Fight Ready MMA coach
Tale Of The Tape
| MORENO | KARA-FRANCE | |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 28.6 | 29.3 |
| Height | 67.0 | 64.0 |
| Reach | 70.0 | 69.0 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Last Fight | Jan. 22, 2022 | Mar. 26, 2022 |
How Kara-France wins: He needs to stay level-headed. He is so technical. His striking is good, and he's very physical. His wrestling defense has become outstanding, too. He's a complete fighter. He has improved so much more than Moreno since they fought last, a loss at UFC 245 in December 2019. Kara-France must take advantage of the technical stand-up holes with which Moreno will present him. In the first two rounds, everyone is athletic and dynamic. As the fight continues, Moreno's hands will drop and his chin will go up a bit. It'll lead to more sloppiness. Kara-France is the more technical striker and can take advantage of the technical deficiencies.
X factor: I'm curious to see what coach James Krause does with Moreno. This is their first camp together. Krause is a smart guy, and I assume he's putting a lot of time into a title fight camp. He's a bit hard-nosed, in a good way. His guys come in shape, and he's not afraid to yell at them in the corner. I think Moreno can benefit from that type of coaching. It'll toughen him up to grind it out. Get a little gritty.
Prediction: I'm leaning Kara-France in this one. I think both are phenomenal. It really wouldn't surprise me to see either of them win. But I think Kara-France gets it done -- probably a decision. If there's a finish, it would probably be Moreno getting it.
Betting analysis
UFC 277: Moreno Vs. Kara-France 2
| Stand-up striking offense | Moreno | Kara-France |
| Total knockdown ratio (knockdowns/times knocked down) | 3:4 | 6:3 |
| Distance knockdown rate | 1.1% | 3.6% |
| Head jab accuracy | 29% | 21% |
| Head power accuracy | 35% | 36% |
| Stand-up strike ratio (Attempted vs. opp. attempted) | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Wrestling and grappling | ||
| TD attempts per min standing/clinch | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| Takedown accuracy | 48% | 21% |
| Advances per takedown/top control | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Opponent takedown attempts | 49 | 38 |
| Takedown defense | 69% | 87% |
| Share of fight time in ground control | 74% | 60% |
| Submission attempts per trip to ground | 0.22 | 0.00 |
| Table compiled by Reed Kuhn |
Kuhn: Slight lean Moreno to win (-210). This rematch could look much different from the first fight. Moreno defeated Kara-France in a strictly standing striking affair in 2019. Not a single takedown was even attempted in that fight, which should change this time. Both fighters seem to be getting better with age and experience, but Moreno has also shown he's a true two-level fighter, and he should have the ground advantage against Kara-France.
Having spent his past three fights facing down one of the most feared men in the division in Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno now faces an opponent who will want to keep the fight standing. That works for Moreno, who can recover quickly even when caught. But, five rounds is plenty of time for him to find his way to the ground.
Best bets on the rest of the card
Heavyweight: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergei Pavlovich
Kuhn: Pavlovich to win (-125). Although Pavlovich opened as a slight underdog to Lewis, the market came in on the side of the Russian. Both men have obvious knockout power, but Pavlovich has shown better accuracy and defense in his striking exchanges, plus much higher output.The sample size for Pavlovich is small, but that's because he's finished his opponents so quickly. He's been extremely busy in the clinch, but he'd be wise to mix in more kicks from a distance to score points and stretch the fight out. Lewis, though a knockout threat at all times, has a notoriously slow pace and a tendency to get tired under busy attacks.
Men's flyweight: Alexandre Pantoja vs. Alex Perez
Kuhn: Pantoja to win (-170). Before the interim flyweight title gets decided, two more of the division's best will face off in what could decide the next contender. We have two dual-threat fighters who look great on paper, but the experience favors Pantoja as the slightly better fighter.
Pantoja will have to deal with leg kicks and shooting takedowns from the outside, but his experience against the division's best shows he can manage elite opposition. His price won't run too high given Perez's credentials, but Pantoja is still worth a little juice knowing he can likely earn a title shot with a win.
