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Stanford Steve and The Bear: Week 7 college football picks, bets, nuggets
ESPN PLUS $ MATERIAL"Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris "The Bear" Fallica cover the college football season as only they can, offering their top picks, betting nuggets and totals worth wagering on.
Records:
The Bear (Last week: 2-1. Season: 13-16)
Stanford Steve (Last week: 3-1. Season: 17-14)
Note: All lines are from Caesars Sportsbook.
The Plays
Auburn Tigers at No. 17 Arkansas Razorbacks (-4.5, 54)
Stanford Steve: Both teams combined to give up 86 points last week, but this is a division game between two familiar opponents. I do think Auburn will try and establish the run against a Hogs defense that loves to play with 3-down guys. On the other side, we know Arkansas wants to run the ball, as they average 244 yards per game on the ground. Think the clock will be running often in this game. We'll take the under.
Pick: Under 54 points (Arkansas 24, Auburn 20)
TCU Horned Frogs at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners (-13.5, 65)
Fallica: I'm going to assume Max Duggan and Zach Evans are going to play. And if that's the case, this is too many points. Each of Oklahoma's five games this year vs. FBS opponents have been decided by seven points or fewer, and I'd be surprised if that run didn't continue. Yes, there's a chance the move to Caleb Williams at quarterback will produce the Oklahoma team many thought we would see after his spectacular performance in relief of Spencer Rattler. However, there's also a chance that now that Williams has to prep all week as the starter and has more pressure on him, he won't be able to replicate the performance he had last week when he was basically going out there and playing.
Pick: TCU +13.5
No. 20 Florida Gators (-11.5, 59.5) at LSU Tigers
Stanford Steve: My godfather always told me, "It is not wise to give double digits on the road." Sorry, uncle Stevie, but I have to in this instance. It's a combination of two things: the talented players LSU has lost, combined with what they have looked like the past couple weeks. Add on top of that Dan Mullen coming to town in a revenge mindset for the loss last year in "The shoe toss game." I think Florida's offense travels this week, unlike their last road trip when they lost in Lexington, 20-13, which is where LSU just lost last week 42-21. We'll lay the points with the road favorite.
Pick: Florida -11.5 (Florida 34, LSU 19)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (-4, 48) at Minnesota Golden Gophers
Fallica: Offensively, Minnesota is a mess. The last time the Gophers played a home game, they lost to Bowling Green. I don't think they'll have much success at all moving the ball on Nebraska. After a gutting loss to Michigan State, the Huskers bounced back with a dominant win over a bad Northwestern team. I expect after another gutting loss to Michigan, they will bounce back in the same way.
Pick: Nebraska -4
Army Black Knights at Wisconsin Badgers (-14, 39)
Stanford Steve: How many possessions will each team have? This game could last two hours. Both teams strength is rush offense and rush defense. There will be plenty of rush attempts in this game, and I think the road team keeps it closer than the spread. It is Army, and we will get a great effort.
Pick: Army +14 (Wisconsin 25, Army 21)
UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies (2, 55)
Stanford Steve: Maybe the line is supposed to be telling me something here, as the Huskies are the favorite, but I just think the Bruins are a way more capable team. They average 11 more points a game than Washington, while only allowing 92 yards on the ground. The Bruins do give up 300 yards in the air on average, but I don't think Washington has the pass game to take advantage of that. We'll say the road underdog wins the game on the field.
Pick: UCLA +2 (UCLA 31, Washington 28)
No. 22 NC State Wolfpack (-3, 52) at Boston College Eagles
Fallica: The Eagles may never get a better chance to snap their long losing streak vs. unranked teams as a short home dog vs. a fringe Top 25 team. BC had a much needed week off after a close loss at Clemson and should be able to rely on its defense and running game vs. a team which has gone on the road once -- an extremely poor showing at Mississippi State.
Pick: Boston College +3
No. 18. Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (PK, 50.5)
Stanford Steve: After suffering their only loss this season on the road in Provo back on September 18, the Sun Devils have rattled off three straight wins, including an impressive road victory at UCLA. In those three games, they've averaged 35 points a game and ran for an average of 200 yards. I love that they have veteran QB Jayden Daniels getting the snaps in a tough place to play. We'll take the road team.
Pick: Arizona State PK (Arizona State 27, Utah 25)
The Bear's money-line parlay
Last Week: -100Season: -409
$100 wins $139
Cincinnati Bearcats -1300
UAB Blazers -700
Iowa Hawkeyes -475
Alabama Crimson Tide -900
Georgia Bulldogs -2400
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -475
Nevada Wolf Pack -700
The Bear's underdogs to play on the money line
Last Week: 1-7, -5.4 unitsSeason: 17-21, +13.1 units
TCU Horned Frogs +425
Boston College Eagles +130
Kent State Golden Flashes +220
UTEP Miners +225
Indiana Hoosiers +165
UCLA Bruins +110
Bear bytes
Clemson Tigers at Syracuse Orange
Beginning with the 2019 National Championship Game, Clemson is 5-13 ATS and has failed to cover each of its last six games. In those six games, Clemson is 3-3 with a win over FCS South Carolina State, a six-point home win over Georgia Tech as a 27.5-point favorite and a six-point home win over Boston College as a 15-point favorite.
Miami Hurricanes at North Carolina Tar Heels
North Carolina has been favored in all five ACC games this year. The Tar Heels have lost three of them outright as 17.5, 14.5 and 5.5 point favorites. They covered the other two games.
Miami is 0-5 in its last five games vs. Power 5 competition, failing to cover any of the five games. Miami's only win in the last six games was a two-point win over Appalachian State as a 7.5-point favorite.
No. 22 NC State Wolfpack at Boston College Eagles
The Eagles have lost 21 straight and 32 of 33 vs. ranked opponents. BC's last win over a ranked team came in 2014 vs. Steve Sarkisian's USC team. Three of the five games under Jeff Hafley have been decided by six points or fewer.
Michigan State Spartans at Indiana Hoosiers
The Spartans have covered each of their last two games as a favorite. It's the first time since 2017 MSU has covered consecutive games as a favorite. Prior to the last two games, MSU had been 6-14 ATS with six outright losses as a favorite.
California Golden Bears at No. 9 Oregon Ducks
Oregon has failed to cover each of its last seven games as a favorite, losing three of the last five Pac-12 games in which the Ducks were favored. The Ducks lost 21-17 last year to Cal as a 9.5 point favorite.
UCF Knights at No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats
UCF hasn't been this big of an underdog since 2016 when the Knights were a 36-point dog at Michigan.
Cincinnati has won 33 straight games as a favorite. The last time the Bearcats were upset was 2017 vs. East Carolina, and the last time UC was upset as a double-digit favorite was 2013 vs. South Florida.
Auburn Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks
This is the first time since 2015 Arkansas is favored over Auburn. That was also the last time the Razorbacks beat the Tigers.
Florida Gators at LSU Tigers
This is the first time since 2001 that LSU is a double-digit underdog vs. someone other than Alabama. Ironically, the LSU coach that year was Nick Saban and the Tigers lost 44-15 to Steve Spurrier's Gators as a 13.5-point underdog.
Since the start of 2020, LSU is 6-8 vs. Power 5 teams. A loss would give the Tigers their first three-game losing streak since 2015.
Kentucky Wildcats at Georgia Bulldogs
Kentucky is the first Top 12 team to be an underdog of at least 23 points since UCLA in 2013 when the Bruins lost 42-14 as a 23.5-point dog. Prior to that, it had been 12 years since a Top 12 team was this big of a dog -- when Washington lost 65-7 as a 26-point dog at eventual National Champion Miami.
Army Black Nights at Wisconsin Badgers
Since 2016, Army has been an underdog vs. a Power 5 team eight times. The Black Knights are 6-2 ATS in those games with two outright wins. The last three games have been decided by 3, 3 and 7 points vs. West Virginia, Michigan and Oklahoma.
TCU Horned Frogs at No. 4 Oklahoma Sooners
Each of the last three years, OU has covered the week after playing Texas. Two of the three games were blowout wins over TCU.
Oklahoma has failed to cover each of its last five games as a double-digit favorite vs. FBS teams. In four such games this year, OU has been favored by 12.5, 17.5, 22.5 and 31 points and won by 6, 3, 7 and 5.
All five of Oklahoma's games vs. FBS teams this year have been decided by 7 points or fewer. OU is 5-0 in those games. No other Power 5 team is better than 3-0 (Kentucky and Notre Dame). The other nine teams to play at least four games vs. FBS opponents decided by seven points or fewer have lost an average two of those games each (18-19, .486).
