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Losschaser

Losschaser

Joined
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508
NCAA & NFL Sharp Report

7:30 p.m. ET: Marshall at Appalachian State

This non-conference showdown features a pair of 2-1 teams going at it. Marshall (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) started the season 2-0 and lost their first game last week to East Carolina, losing 42-38 as 10.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Appalachian State (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a tough 25-23 loss to Miami in Week 2 with the 44-10 win over Elon, although they failed to cover as 35.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Appalachian State listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with App State. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen App State fall from -7.5 to -7. This signals some respected money hitting Marshall plus the hook. Marshall also has value as an unpopular road dog in a heavily bet game. We've also seen some over money show up, steaming the total from 57 to 59.5. Marshall is 3-0 to the over this season, averaging 43.7 PPG on offense.


8:20 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Houston Texans

The Panthers (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have been impressive through two games, taking care of the Jets 19-14 as 3.5-point home favorites in the opener and then upsetting the Saints 26-7 last week as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Texans (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) have also covered both of their games thus far, upsetting the Jags 37-21 as 3.5-point home dogs and then losing to the Browns 31-21 last week but covering as 13.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 7-point road favorite. A combination of early sharp money and steady public support has pushed Carolina up from -7 to -8. Before Tyrod Taylor got hurt, the early line was Carolina -3.5. With rookie Davis Mills starting, the opener was adjusted to -7.

If you missed the early number on the Panthers, the Texans could be worth a look as a buy-low value play. The public is all over Carolina, which gives Houston contrarian value in a heavily bet primetime game, plus an inflated line at 8. Dogs are 21-11 ATS (66 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 4-2 ATS this season and 32-21 (60 percent) since 2020. Alex Kemp, the lead official, has historically favored home teams (27-20, 58 percent ATS).

If you like the Panthers, consider them in a teaser. You could tease Carolina down from -8 to -2, which goes through a pair of key numbers in 7 and 3. Going through multiple key numbers is the wiseguy approach to teasers.

The total opened at 44 and despite the public taking the over, the line has fallen to 43. This reverse line movement signals some smart under money. One interesting trend we've seen this season: primetime overs are a perfect 6-0.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
45,492
Looks like our crew are all on the Panthers.

Demarco Crew

Al Demarco - Carolina Panthers
Chris Jordan - Carolina Panthers
Chuck O'Brien - Braves Run Line
Gus Augustine - 7-point teaser Carolina Panthers and Under
Jack Brayman - UNDER Panthers-Texans
Jay McNeil - Marshall Thundering Herd
Kirby Maxwell - Over Marshall-Appalachian State
Mitchell Newman - Carolina Panthers
Trace Adams - Carolina Panthers
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
45,492
Greg Shaker

NFL Total Destroyer
Panthers-Texans Under 43.5
PLAY: UNDER Panthers/Texans
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY

The Panthers defense is the best in the NFL after 2 weeks of the season. That includes all categories, total yards, total points, passing, running. They have put extreme pressure on the QB this season with 8 sacks and lots of hurries. They face the Texans who will be without the Tyrod Taylor and that is big news. It is the reason why this side line has gone from the open of 4.5 all the way to 8 as of this writing. Davis Mills gets the nod and he did not look too good last week in the 2nd half against a somewhat marginal Browns D. I don't think he is going to have much success even though he will have more time to prepare albeit it is a short week. If the Texans can run the ball he might have success but Carolina has been solid stopping the rush and you can best bet because of that Mills will be in long yard 3rd down plays all game against the Best Passing D in the league. It's not likely to be pretty. The fact is my only concern is that the visitors will cause some turnovers that could lead to quick Panther Scores. The Texans are not bad on defense and Carolina is just OK on offense ranked 18th in the league for points scored. Panther games have played UNDER the last 5 games dating back to last season. It's a pretty easy choice and our NFL Models agree. That makes this a strong 2*UNDER.
 

Wagerallsports

Wagerallsports

Joined
Mar 6, 2018
Messages
45,492
Bob Balfe

7:05 PM EST
Rotation #969-970
Rangers/Orioles Over 9 runs
Otto/Lowther. Both teams are in the basement in their divisions and the season was over for them months ago, but as a hitter you want to make sure you have a roster spot next year for the team you are on or the next team. Both pitchers tonight do not have much MLB experience and in their little work have been crushed with base hit after base hit. These pitchers are not yet quality big league pitchers and big league hitters will hit them. Look for both teams to finally get a chance to knock around the ball. This should be like batting practice tonight. Take the Over.
 
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