Justin Perri
CINCINNATI @ MIAMI | 08/29 | 1:10 PM EDT
CINCINNATI -190
ANALYSIS: Let's continue to fade Miami LHP Jesus Luzardo, who owns a 6.87 ERA, and back Reds RHP Tyler Mahle, who has a 3.69 ERA and is even better on the road. Cincinnati's lineup has everyone going while the Marlins are sitting Lewis Brinson, who has been playing well over the last month or so. This also is the rubber game of the series and the Reds have more to play for after losing on Saturday, so I expect them to take advantage of the Marlins' weak starter and get it done.
TORONTO @ DETROIT | 08/29 | 1:10 PM EDT
OVER 9
ANALYSIS: The weather should help the Over, as the Air Density Index is expected to be at 58 - well below the average. This should allow for some harder-hit balls and less breaking on pitches. I also have Toronto RHPJose Berrios continuing to struggle on the road. In in his two away starts with the Blue Jays, he allowed six runs against the Los Angeles Angels and three versus Washington. The Tigers have a similar offensive profile, so I think they should get us some runs. Toronto's offense has been a little cool but still is dangerous. Take the Over.
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE | 08/29 | 1:05 PM EDT
TAMPA BAY -1.5
ANALYSIS: Orioles RHP Spenser Watkins has lost six straight starts, allowing at least four runs in each outing. In total, he has surrendered 30 runs in his last 25 2/3 innings of work and truly is a risk to implode every time he takes the mound. A -160 price for the run line is a decent discount from the money line, and I’ll happily fade Watkins until he shows me I shouldn’t. Tampa Bay pitchers are a bit of a liability, but I expect the Rays to be scoring at least six runs, and it should be tough for Baltimore to cover. Take Tampa Bay -1.5 runs at -160.
TAMPA BAY @ BALTIMORE | 08/29 | 1:05 PM EDT
OVER 10
ANALYSIS: This total has come down a bit, but I still think it reaches at least 11 runs, and I'm happy to get the push condition. The Rays are opening with RHP Chris Archer, but the primary pitcher will be LHP Josh Fleming, who has an 8.06 ERA and 1.72 WHIP on the road. Baltimore is going with RHP Spenser Watkins, who ranks in the bottom one percent of MLB in xBA, xERA and xwOBA. To make matters worse, Watkins has a xSLG of .514. These pitchers allow runs, so take the Over.
