NBA Play-in/Playoff Thread

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piratealew

piratealew

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Pacers choked bad in the 4th.


⭐️OKC-4.5-115
⭐️Boston-13-112
Dallas/OKC Over 217.5-115

Normally in NBA playoffs, you have a zig-zag back and forth going on between teams esp in later rounds. With these 2 series, the only team that has the capability to mount a challenge is Dallas, and i see them winning 1 maybe 2 at home, but it all depends on Luca, who is clearly not 100%, and probably not even 60% right now. Clev is outmanned and outgunned, this could be a 4-0 sweep or 5-1, with Boston winning comfortably in most.

If Boston is on tonight like they have been, it could be another blowout. OKC I have in a bit of a closer game tonight than Game 1 as I do expect Kyrie and Luca to have a better offensive game (hence why I played the over as well), but I still have OKC tonight by around 10 points. Celtics by 18-20. Boston's total could be affected early if Boston goes on a rout and shuts down clev, the total is really tight my expected outcome, slight lean to the over but as of this AM, no play just yet.
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Rough thursday. We grind on Friday...

Several ways to play the Pacers game. Being down 0-2 and now back at home is all the motivation a team like Indy will need to come out fired up. Further, NBA trends back up the idea of teams that are down coming out guns blazing in the first half as playoff teams coming home down 0-2 are 70-38 ATS in the first half since 2005. Since the 2015-16 season, they are 25-11-1 in the first. I see the Pacers jumping out early and this time maintaing a lead and not letting is slip like last game. No OG for knicks? they are no longer a dominant team but more of an average team without him. Brunson will probably play but he's banged up.

The 2nd best bet as I see is the Pacers team total to the over, They were the most profitable team in the NBA this season in this category (49-32). At home they were 27-13-1. This high scoring trend has continued in the playoffs scoring 121 and 117. In the last regular season game between these 2 they hit 125. So 3 for the last 3, I'll take my chances they continue this high scoring that we are accustomed to.

⭐️Pacers-5 (First Half)
⭐️Pacers Team Total Over 114
Pacers-6.5-115

Back in a bit with thoughts/play on Denver game
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Looks like my NBA post didnt go through yesterday here but did across the street, happened with a MLB post. Need to pay more attention. Lost OKC, but won Boston yesterday 2-3 overall, split the top plays (OKC, Celtics).

Boston came through, while OKC missed at the end. Today Going back with Twolves, played Denver big in game 3 while hitting Wolves in the first 2 games. I believe this shifts back to Minny tonight after their embarrassing loss in G3. Tough to beat a team twice in a row on the road, Minny will step up tonight. Wolves are my biggest NBA play today.

⭐️Twolves-2-120
⭐️Pacers/Knicks Over 218-115
Pacers-5-120
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Denver made some big offensive adjustments last game, while Wolves didn't shoot the ball well and turned over the ball 16 times, yet the total went over. I expect the Wolves will shoot better and protect the ball better, while Denver will continue their offensive gameplan to push this over.

⭐️Denver/Minnesota Over 203.5-115
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Monday
⭐️Mavericks ML-115
⭐️Celtics-4-120 (First Half)
Celtics-8-114
Thunder/Mavs Over 213-118

Thoughts on Mavs: OKC is too young, they havent figured out Luca and Kyrie and even on Luca's bad/off nights he's still torching these kids from OKC. OKC may get thrashed again tonight on the road as the Mavs are hot right now and clicking. Mavs role players are playing their best, wait til Luca really goes off. Normally i go with the NBA zig zag but watching OKC this series, way too overhyped, too young and dumb. Luca and Kyire have been here and beyond before with Luca having played in a western conf finals while Kyrie has won a title in Clev. The intangibles matter and no way will Dallas want to relinquish control of the series to a bunch of young kids with no experience in the playoffs. Mavs want to teach them a lesson at home.

The other key factor is Rebounding, where Dallas has gathered 12+ offensive Boards per game in this series and while Defense wins Championships, and OKC had a stout defense in regular season, it's been less than stellar against Dallas--constantly giving Dallas 2nd chance points. Home court advantage is also a big factor, where Dallas plays a lot better in front of the home crowd while OKC has been reduced to slightly better than average team last 2 games (1 at OKC, 1 in Dallas). I doubt OKC can figure it out from Game 3 to 4 in a matter of 2 days.
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Celtics were nice enough to cover the first half and miss the game by a point again. Dallas cost themselves in the late game, terrible FT shooting at the worst time.

On to Tuesday

788-703 YTD

⭐️Knicks ML-128
⭐️Minnesota/Denver Over 205-118
Nuggets-3.5-120
Knicks/Pacers Over 216-117
 

piratealew

piratealew

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OKC is too inconsistent and young, go figure after a solid game they lose to a hurt Doncic at home.

As far as Denver, I dont see a let-down. This defending champ team has turned it on since getting beaten 2-0 at home. Once they turned it on and figured out the recipe to beating the Wolves, there's been now let-up. Joker is too much for Gobert or any of the Wolves bigs. Denver's bench is outplaying Minnesota's bench, making the wolves look outmatched throughout the entirety of the last 3 games. Since Denver has changed it's gameplan particularly on the defensive side, Wolves have gone into a shooting slump., where they got just 48.7% from the field (to Denver's 55%), and just 30.8% from 3 (Denver shot 47.4% from 3).. Denver should wrap this up tonight but I'll take the points.

⭐️Nuggets+3-118
Denver/Minnesota Over 204-115
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Another angle I love is the Denver team total over. It's set way too low here. Denver has scored 112, 115, 117 in it's last 3 games after a paltry 80 in the first game before they made adjustments. I see them getting to 110+ again, if they continue to play like they did the last 3 games. In their previous 3 matchups in the reg season Denver scored 115, 111. 116

⭐️Denver Team Total Over 101.5
 

piratealew

piratealew

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Sadly, Denver didn't come to play game 6. Looked totally different from the beginning, tough to see that one coming.
Back to the NBA zig zag in this series. I see Pacers pushing this at home where they are undefeated in playoffs to a game 7 with a great performance throughout against a tired and injured team that doesnt play as good on the road.. Knicks still should win game 7 in MSG in a tight game much like Game 1 and 3, IMHO. Tonight's game may not be a blowout like the last 2 but I have Pacers by about 10 points at home.

⭐️Pacers-5.5-115
Pacers-3-120 (First Half)
 
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