My Long Season Picks Thread

ShookTheBook

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The Jets are starting one of the best goalies in the NHL tonight against a Ducks offense that has been abysmal. Anaheim finished last season ranking 27TH in expected goals and did not do too much in the offseason to help increase the potential. You can expect Winnipeg to control this game on both ends of the rink and Hellebuyck to play lights out; final score prediction 4-2.
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ShookTheBook

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The Spartans have a few question marks at the quarterback position tonight, but no matter who starts their offensive troubles will continue (106 rushing YPG/ 345 in total YPG) against a Aztec defense allowing only 50 rushing YPG (3rd in the nation). Take this position up to -11.

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ShookTheBook

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The Houston Astros THE best in the league against left handed pitchers, boasting the lowest strike rate and a 117 wRC+. Even though this game is in Fenway, that won’t matter much with batters holding a .282 BA and Rodriguez posting a 5.95 ERA at home. I’m expecting the Astros to get at least 2-3 runs off of him early on.

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ShookTheBook

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Poole has proven to be the Warriors second scorer, and him reaching 20+ points each night will become a regular occurrence as the season goes on. Grabbing this number every night he plays until the books show more respect.
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ShookTheBook

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With Zion still on the sideline, Ingram will continue to pick up his work load against the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. Brandon has cleared this number in the first 2 games (13 and 16) for the Pelicans and I expect nothing less tonight. Take this up to 11.5.

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ShookTheBook

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Jonathon Taylor comes into this prime time matchup averaging 78.7 yards per game for a total of 472 yards this season. 44.5% of the Colts plays are run plays, and they will be going against the 49ers defense who allow 113 rushing yards per game. Expect rain tonight in San Francisco, which will give Taylor even more touched throughout the game. Take this up to 70.

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ShookTheBook

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Jonas is coming off a big performance on Saturday vs the same team he will be facing tonight; the Timberwolves. With Zion still on the sideline, the Pelicans depend on Jonas to grab rebounds and make defensive plays. With the Wolves ranking 17TH in rebounding I’m expecting Jonas to have another monster night on the glass while putting up 15+ points in the process. Take this up to 32.

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ShookTheBook

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In Bam’s first 3 games we have seen him post 13+ rebounds in each contest, reaching 16 in one of those 3. I’m expecting Bam’s presence to remain strong in the paint against the Nets who are ranked 25TH in offensive rebounds. Grabbed this at -120 earlier, like it up to -140.

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ShookTheBook

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The Nets are at home vs a Pacers defense who are ranked 25TH in league and just allowed 118 points to the Raptors. I’m expecting a big bounce back game for the Nets after shooting only 39% from the field and 33% from the 3 vs Miami.

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We are targeting this position for one reason: Notre Dame’s defense. They hold the 12th best pass-coverage grade (PFF) and allow only 3.8 YPC. We saw how productive this defensive unit is last week vs USC after holding them to 3 points over 3 quarters. Expect Marcus Freeman to have a powerful defensive scheme ready for a not so flattering Sam Howell.

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Toney and Shepard come into this matchup as New York’s top 2 receivers with Golladay still sidelined. The Chiefs secondary is as porous as they come, allowing 275 passing yards per game and 13 passing touchdowns so far this year. I am grabbing Toney at +250 and Shepard at +230, putting .5U on each. If either of these players score a TD we are guaranteed profit.

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ShookTheBook

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The Astros will be facing Max Fried in tonight’s do or die World Series matchup. In game 2 he gave up 6 runs in 5 innings, and his most recent outing in game 5 saw him give up 5 runs over 4 innings. The Braves bullpen is starting to wear down and if the Astro’s can get to Tyler Matzek/Will Smith/Luke Jackson early on, this game could get ugly. The Astros offense is hot hot hot right now and with them back at home I’m expecting another high scoring ball game.

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ShookTheBook

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This is simply too high of a # that is inflated because of LeBron’s absence tonight. Russ will be facilitating tonight and carry most of the work load. Take this down to 38.

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ShookTheBook

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Joel Embiid and Tobias Harris will be out tonight, meaning Curry will be taking a high volume of shots. I’m projecting him to take 16-17 shots tonight, and with him shooting 60% on the year I believe he will have 20+ points tonight. Take up to 18.

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ShookTheBook

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We took his prop before and we are back to take it again. He has hit this in 8/10 games this season averaging around 32.5 PRA per game. Take up to 30.

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ShookTheBook

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With Fuller and Parker out, Gesicki remains Miami’s top target next to Jaylen Waddle. They will be up against a Ravens secondary who has been allowing 296 passing yards per game, 30th in the NFL. The Ravens also rank 31st in coverage vs TE’s. Regardless of which QB starts, Flores will make getting Gesicki the ball top priority in their game plan tonight. Take this up to 58.

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ShookTheBook

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With Bradley Beal out, Spencer Dinwiddie has stepped up immensely, grabbing 21 rebounds his last 2 games. We will also see his play time increase slightly from usual, which gives us a better chance of getting all 6 rebounds needed. The Pelicans are ranked 26th in FG%, 20th in 3 PT%, and 14th in rebounding. I’m expecting the Pelicans to continue their offensive struggle and for Dinwiddie to continue on his tear.

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ShookTheBook

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Big man Deandre Ayton has been a major part of the Suns offensive attack, and they sure are glad he’s been back. Ayton has cleared his point prop in 7 of his last 8 games, averaging 18.1 points through those 8 matches.

Getting 15 points against Cleveland + Allen will not be a cake walk, but it will have to happen if the Suns want to continue their hot streak.

Take this up to 16.

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ShookTheBook

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The brightest part of the Saints passing defense, Marshon Lattimore, will have his hands full tonight with Stefon Diggs who is leading the Buffalo Bills in receiving yards this year. This attention on Diggs will lead to Emmanuel Sanders getting open looks across the middle/down field. Take this up to 45.

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