MVC Unders

[Tanko]

Hope its OK with RDalert I continue to post this info in this thread.
How conferences are doing so far on UNDERS in tourny games.

Note: Clearly, the timing of getting your line plays a huge impact.
The vast majority of the data below was using closing lines (except MVC games).

Conf	Under	Over	Push	%	Units
Slnd	2	0	0	100.0%	2.0
Sum	8	0	0	100.0%	8.0
MAAC	6	2	0	75.0%	3.8
WCC	6	2	0	75.0%	3.8
NEC	4	2	0	66.7%	1.8
Horz	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
OVC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
BSky	2	2	0	50.0%	-0.2
BSth	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
SC	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
ASun	5	6	0	45.5%	-1.6
Pat	3	5	0	37.5%	-2.5
CAA	3	6	0	33.3%	-3.6
MVC	3	7	0	30.0%	-4.7
AE	1	3	0	25.0%	-2.3

 

[Tanko]

Two conferences have historically (last 3 year trend) been "OVER" on their tourny games.

• ASun
• Patriot

ASun went 6-5 on the overs so a slight +money.
Patriot went 5-3 so + money again this year.

 

[Tanko]

Also, there is all kinds of data you can draw from the "trends".
It seems (at least from the last 4 years of data), that picking UNDERS when the total is 140+ adds some value.

For 2026 so far:

• Unders in all conf tourny games 61-59 (50.8%)
• Unders when Total is >= 140, 48-35 (57.8%).

There is similar data for the last 3 years as well.
But, as we all know, trends change.

 

[rdalert447]

This is all great, Tanko. Thanks!

 

[drunkenhorseplayer]

Had time to kill today watching CBB so I went back a couple of years to see which conference tourny's in addition to MVC do well if you're betting Unders or Overs.

Here's some data.

• The % shown under each year is the % of games that went UNDER.
• The first 7 conferences listed have consistently had games go UNDER in the last 3 years.
• The next 2 have consistently had games that go OVER.
• ROI is estimated based on -110 odds.
• I only show ROI data for the first 9 conferences because the rest were either negative or inconsistent over the 3 year period.
• The STD column is the standard deviation for the 3 year period. Lower is better (i.e. more consistent) especially if the % UNDERS are farther away from 50%.

Note: this is limited data. Just 3 years so drawing conclusions is a stretch.
But, there may be more conference to try and leverage an UNDER/OVER system.

Ask questions if you have any.

Conference	2023	2024	2025	Avg	STD	Over/Under	Avg +units	Avg # Gms	Avg 'ROI Over 3 yr	Worst ROI yr	Best ROI yr
AE	71.4%	71.4%	83.3%	75.4%	5.6%	UNDERS	3.2	7	43.2%	36.4%	59.1%
BE	80.0%	60.0%	60.0%	66.7%	9.4%	UNDERS	3.0	10	27.3%	14.5%	52.7%
MAAC	66.7%	70.0%	77.8%	71.5%	4.7%	UNDERS	3.7	9	36.4%	27.3%	48.5%
MVC	54.5%	63.6%	90.9%	69.7%	15.5%	UNDERS	4.0	11	33.1%	4.1%	73.6%
NEC	57.1%	100.0%	71.4%	76.2%	17.8%	UNDERS	3.5	7	45.5%	9.1%	90.9%
Sum	55.6%	87.5%	62.5%	68.5%	13.7%	UNDERS	2.7	8	29.8%	6.1%	67.0%
SWAC	57.1%	66.7%	77.8%	67.2%	8.4%	UNDERS	2.4	7	30.2%	9.1%	48.5%
ASun	44.4%	44.4%	42.9%	43.9%	0.7%	OVERS	1.5	8	16.0%	18.2%	15.2%
Pat	22.2%	33.3%	44.4%	33.3%	9.1%	OVERS	3.6	9	36.4%	57.6%	15.2%
A10	71.4%	76.9%	28.6%	59.0%	21.6%
ACC	50.0%	42.9%	64.3%	52.4%	8.9%
Amer	50.0%	38.5%	50.0%	46.2%	5.4%
B10	53.8%	46.2%	50.0%	50.0%	3.1%
B12	88.9%	38.5%	28.6%	52.0%	26.4%
BSky	11.1%	25.0%	55.6%	30.6%	18.6%
BSth	33.3%	62.5%	62.5%	52.8%	13.7%
BW	55.6%	0.0%	50.0%	35.2%	25.0%
CAA	45.5%	61.5%	27.3%	44.8%	14.0%
CUSA	50.0%	50.0%	33.3%	44.4%	7.9%
Horz	66.7%	20.0%	50.0%	45.6%	19.3%
Ivy	33.3%	66.7%	66.7%	55.6%	15.7%
MAC	28.6%	85.7%	42.9%	52.4%	24.3%
MEAC	57.1%	71.4%	42.9%	57.1%	11.7%
MWC	50.0%	50.0%	80.0%	60.0%	14.1%
OVC	42.9%	57.1%	50.0%	50.0%	5.8%
P12	54.5%	50.0%
SB	61.5%	50.0%	46.2%	52.6%	6.5%
SC	55.6%	33.3%	55.6%	48.1%	10.5%
SEC	53.8%	46.2%	20.0%	40.0%	14.5%
Slnd	42.9%	71.4%	71.4%	61.9%	13.5%
WAC	45.5%	14.3%	71.4%	43.7%	23.4%
WCC	66.7%	50.0%	30.0%	48.9%	15.0%

​

I followed this advice regarding the first nine conferences listed just for the hell of it (to win $100/game) and right now I'm 40-22-1. Interestingly, the impetus for this thread (the MVC) went 5-5. The other four complete tourneys have shown a profit, the Patriot League will and the SWAC probably will. The Summit went 8-0. Great post, I'll probably do this again next year.

 

[Tanko]

I followed this advice regarding the first nine conferences listed just for the hell of it (to win $100/game) and right now I'm 40-22-1. Interestingly, the impetus for this thread (the MVC) went 5-5. The other four complete tourneys have shown a profit, the Patriot League will and the SWAC probably will. The Summit went 8-0. Great post, I'll probably do this again next year.

Awesome. Great to hear DrunkenHP.
Wish I'd followed my own data. Been too busy traveling to keep up with betting all the games.

I'll continue updating the stats for the tourny as they proceed.

 

[Tanko]

Data thru Tuesday
(again when you get your line matters and will impact data shown).

Units are assuming under bets.

Conf	Under	Over	Push	% Under	Units
B10	2	0	0	100.0%	2.0
CUSA	2	0	0	100.0%	2.0
Sum	8	0	0	100.0%	8.0
SWAC	3	0	1	100.0%	3.0
WCC	9	2	0	81.8%	6.8
MAAC	7	2	0	77.8%	4.8
Slnd	4	2	0	66.7%	1.8
Horz	6	4	0	60.0%	1.6
NEC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
OVC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
SC	5	4	0	55.6%	0.6
ACC	1	1	1	50.0%	-0.1
BSth	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
ASun	5	6	0	45.5%	-1.6
BSky	3	5	0	37.5%	-2.5
Pat	3	5	0	37.5%	-2.5
AE	2	4	0	33.3%	-2.4
CAA	4	8	0	33.3%	-4.8
MVC	3	7	0	30.0%	-4.7
B12	0	4	0	0.0%	-4.4

 

[rdalert447]

Tanko is the man.

 

[Tanko]

Thru Wednesday 3/11/26

Conf	Under	Over	Push	%	Units
Amer	2	0	0	100.0%	2.0
Sum	8	0	0	100.0%	8.0
SWAC	5	0	1	100.0%	5.0
WCC	9	2	0	81.8%	6.8
MAAC	7	2	0	77.8%	4.8
CUSA	3	1	0	75.0%	1.9
MWC	3	1	0	75.0%	1.9
Horz	6	4	0	60.0%	1.6
NEC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
OVC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
Slnd	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
SC	5	4	0	55.6%	0.6
A10	1	1	0	50.0%	-0.1
ACC	3	3	1	50.0%	-0.3
B10	3	3	0	50.0%	-0.3
BSth	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
BW	1	1	0	50.0%	-0.1
SEC	2	2	0	50.0%	-0.2
ASun	5	6	0	45.5%	-1.6
BSky	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
Pat	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
B12	3	5	0	37.5%	-2.5
AE	2	4	0	33.3%	-2.4
BE	1	2	0	33.3%	-1.2
CAA	4	8	0	33.3%	-4.8
MVC	3	7	0	30.0%	-4.7
MEAC	0	1	0	0.0%	-1.1
WAC	0	1	0	0.0%	-1.1

 

[Tanko]

Thru Thursday 3/12/26
% Unders shown. Units assume -110 odds.

Conf	Under	Over	Push	%	Units
Sum	8	0	0	100.0%	8.0
A10	5	1	0	83.3%	3.9
WCC	9	2	0	81.8%	6.8
MAAC	7	2	0	77.8%	4.8
Amer	3	1	0	75.0%	1.9
BW	3	1	0	75.0%	1.9
SWAC	5	2	1	71.4%	2.8
MWC	5	3	0	62.5%	1.7
SEC	5	3	0	62.5%	1.7
Horz	6	4	0	60.0%	1.6
NEC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
OVC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
Slnd	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
SC	5	4	0	55.6%	0.6
B12	6	6	0	50.0%	-0.6
BSth	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
CUSA	3	3	0	50.0%	-0.3
ASun	5	6	0	45.5%	-1.6
BSky	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
Pat	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
ACC	4	6	1	40.0%	-2.6
B10	4	6	0	40.0%	-2.6
AE	2	4	0	33.3%	-2.4
CAA	4	8	0	33.3%	-4.8
WAC	1	2	0	33.3%	-1.2
MVC	3	7	0	30.0%	-4.7
BE	2	5	0	28.6%	-3.5
MAC	1	3	0	25.0%	-2.3
SB	3	10	0	23.1%	-8.0
MEAC	0	3	0	0.0%	-3.3

 

[Tanko]

Through Saturday.

Conf	Under	Over	Push	%	Units
Ivy	1	0	1	100.0%	1.0
Sum	8	0	0	100.0%	8.0
A10	10	2	0	83.3%	7.8
WCC	9	2	0	81.8%	6.8
SWAC	8	2	1	80.0%	5.8
MAAC	7	2	0	77.8%	4.8
BW	5	2	0	71.4%	2.8
SEC	9	5	0	64.3%	3.5
MWC	7	4	0	63.6%	2.6
Amer	5	3	0	62.5%	1.7
CUSA	5	3	1	62.5%	1.7
Horz	6	4	0	60.0%	1.6
MAC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
NEC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
OVC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
Slnd	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
SC	5	4	0	55.6%	0.6
B10	8	8	0	50.0%	-0.8
BSth	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
MEAC	3	3	0	50.0%	-0.3
WAC	3	3	0	50.0%	-0.3
B12	7	8	0	46.7%	-1.8
ASun	5	6	0	45.5%	-1.6
BSky	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
Pat	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
AE	3	4	0	42.9%	-1.4
BE	4	6	0	40.0%	-2.6
CAA	4	8	0	33.3%	-4.8
ACC	4	9	1	30.8%	-5.9
MVC	3	7	0	30.0%	-4.7
SB	3	10	0	23.1%	-8.0

 

[fiftycint]

MAAC unders at Boardwalk hall has been like 75% I believe the A10 is moving their tourney back there Stay alert men

 

[Tanko]

Final Updated of Over/Unders on Conf Tourny's
Through Sunday 3/15/26

Conf	Under	Over	Push	%	Units
Sum	8	0	0	100.0%	8.0
A10	11	2	0	84.6%	8.8
WCC	9	2	0	81.8%	6.8
SWAC	8	2	1	80.0%	5.8
MAAC	7	2	0	77.8%	4.8
BW	5	2	0	71.4%	2.8
Amer	6	3	0	66.7%	2.7
SEC	10	5	0	66.7%	4.5
MWC	7	4	0	63.6%	2.6
CUSA	5	3	1	62.5%	1.7
Horz	6	4	0	60.0%	1.6
MAC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
NEC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
OVC	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
Slnd	4	3	0	57.1%	0.7
SC	5	4	0	55.6%	0.6
BSth	4	4	0	50.0%	-0.4
Ivy	1	1	1	50.0%	-0.1
MEAC	3	3	0	50.0%	-0.3
WAC	3	3	0	50.0%	-0.3
B10	8	9	0	47.1%	-1.9
B12	7	8	0	46.7%	-1.8
ASun	5	6	0	45.5%	-1.6
BSky	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
Pat	4	5	0	44.4%	-1.5
AE	3	4	0	42.9%	-1.4
BE	4	6	0	40.0%	-2.6
CAA	4	8	0	33.3%	-4.8
ACC	4	9	1	30.8%	-5.9
MVC	3	7	0	30.0%	-4.7
SB	3	10	0	23.1%	-8.0