MVC Unders
- Thread starter rdalert447
- Start date
Had time to kill today watching CBB so I went back a couple of years to see which conference tourny's in addition to MVC do well if you're betting Unders or Overs.
Here's some data.
Note: this is limited data. Just 3 years so drawing conclusions is a stretch.
But, there may be more conference to try and leverage an UNDER/OVER system.
Ask questions if you have any.
Here's some data.
- The % shown under each year is the % of games that went UNDER.
- The first 7 conferences listed have consistently had games go UNDER in the last 3 years.
- The next 2 have consistently had games that go OVER.
- ROI is estimated based on -110 odds.
- I only show ROI data for the first 9 conferences because the rest were either negative or inconsistent over the 3 year period.
- The STD column is the standard deviation for the 3 year period. Lower is better (i.e. more consistent) especially if the % UNDERS are farther away from 50%.
Note: this is limited data. Just 3 years so drawing conclusions is a stretch.
But, there may be more conference to try and leverage an UNDER/OVER system.
Ask questions if you have any.
| Conference | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Avg | STD | Over/Under | Avg +units | Avg # Gms | Avg 'ROI Over 3 yr | Worst ROI yr | Best ROI yr |
| AE | 71.4% | 71.4% | 83.3% | 75.4% | 5.6% | UNDERS | 3.2 | 7 | 43.2% | 36.4% | 59.1% |
| BE | 80.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% | 66.7% | 9.4% | UNDERS | 3.0 | 10 | 27.3% | 14.5% | 52.7% |
| MAAC | 66.7% | 70.0% | 77.8% | 71.5% | 4.7% | UNDERS | 3.7 | 9 | 36.4% | 27.3% | 48.5% |
| MVC | 54.5% | 63.6% | 90.9% | 69.7% | 15.5% | UNDERS | 4.0 | 11 | 33.1% | 4.1% | 73.6% |
| NEC | 57.1% | 100.0% | 71.4% | 76.2% | 17.8% | UNDERS | 3.5 | 7 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 90.9% |
| Sum | 55.6% | 87.5% | 62.5% | 68.5% | 13.7% | UNDERS | 2.7 | 8 | 29.8% | 6.1% | 67.0% |
| SWAC | 57.1% | 66.7% | 77.8% | 67.2% | 8.4% | UNDERS | 2.4 | 7 | 30.2% | 9.1% | 48.5% |
| ASun | 44.4% | 44.4% | 42.9% | 43.9% | 0.7% | OVERS | 1.5 | 8 | 16.0% | 18.2% | 15.2% |
| Pat | 22.2% | 33.3% | 44.4% | 33.3% | 9.1% | OVERS | 3.6 | 9 | 36.4% | 57.6% | 15.2% |
| A10 | 71.4% | 76.9% | 28.6% | 59.0% | 21.6% | ||||||
| ACC | 50.0% | 42.9% | 64.3% | 52.4% | 8.9% | ||||||
| Amer | 50.0% | 38.5% | 50.0% | 46.2% | 5.4% | ||||||
| B10 | 53.8% | 46.2% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 3.1% | ||||||
| B12 | 88.9% | 38.5% | 28.6% | 52.0% | 26.4% | ||||||
| BSky | 11.1% | 25.0% | 55.6% | 30.6% | 18.6% | ||||||
| BSth | 33.3% | 62.5% | 62.5% | 52.8% | 13.7% | ||||||
| BW | 55.6% | 0.0% | 50.0% | 35.2% | 25.0% | ||||||
| CAA | 45.5% | 61.5% | 27.3% | 44.8% | 14.0% | ||||||
| CUSA | 50.0% | 50.0% | 33.3% | 44.4% | 7.9% | ||||||
| Horz | 66.7% | 20.0% | 50.0% | 45.6% | 19.3% | ||||||
| Ivy | 33.3% | 66.7% | 66.7% | 55.6% | 15.7% | ||||||
| MAC | 28.6% | 85.7% | 42.9% | 52.4% | 24.3% | ||||||
| MEAC | 57.1% | 71.4% | 42.9% | 57.1% | 11.7% | ||||||
| MWC | 50.0% | 50.0% | 80.0% | 60.0% | 14.1% | ||||||
| OVC | 42.9% | 57.1% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 5.8% | ||||||
| P12 | 54.5% | 50.0% | |||||||||
| SB | 61.5% | 50.0% | 46.2% | 52.6% | 6.5% | ||||||
| SC | 55.6% | 33.3% | 55.6% | 48.1% | 10.5% | ||||||
| SEC | 53.8% | 46.2% | 20.0% | 40.0% | 14.5% | ||||||
| Slnd | 42.9% | 71.4% | 71.4% | 61.9% | 13.5% | ||||||
| WAC | 45.5% | 14.3% | 71.4% | 43.7% | 23.4% | ||||||
| WCC | 66.7% | 50.0% | 30.0% | 48.9% | 15.0% |
rickeyphillips
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- Dec 25, 2024
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- 1,062
Lotsa crackers in the MVC, tremendous angle to keep an eye on
@rdalert447 and others when are the lines usually posted for these and when can you catch the lines for the next day’s action?
rdalert447
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- Jun 5, 2022
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For many years, you could only get lines the morning of. Heard whispers of some overnights last year. I just signed up for the Hardrock App here for the first time. Hoping to see an overnight or two.
If I remember correctly it’s important to jump on these as early as possible.
MVC totals tend to get steamed downward 2-3 points fairly quickly from opening line if memory serves.
rdalert447
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- Jun 5, 2022
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Oh yes. Wake up early and continually hit refresh. 
It’s a labor of love.
It’s a labor of love.
rdalert447
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In the early 2000’s it didn’t matter what number you got. Games were sailing under by 20 points. I even recall a double ot game staying under.
Wow big moves.
I'm feeling good about getting them early.
I think the MAAC held the most value when looking at the 3 yr trend so I went with their two games tomorrow as well.
Sacred Heart/Iona U 150
Manhattan/Fairfield U 153
@rdalert447 always talked about getting on them ASAP. Seems like this is a well known trend.
rdalert447
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My outs have nothing so far. 
rdalert447
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But glad I see your numbers to use as a guide.
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