MLB Playoffs Under Trend

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BMR Lorenzo

BMR Lorenzo

Joined
Oct 8, 2021
Messages
7
You may have noticed that the Under has yet to lose during the 2021 MLB Playoffs going 5-0-1, going 5-0 since the playoffs opened with a push in the Yankees/Red Sox Wild Card Game. So, is this a trend or just an anomaly?

Well, we went back to 2005, and as you might expect, it is never that easy as blindly betting all post-season Unders has gone a losing 272-262-29 for -5.99 units when accounting for juice, an ROI of -1.1%.

BUT things get interesting if we only back the Under in games with an opening total of 7.5 or more, as that has yielded a 206-171-17 mark for +22.45 units and a positive +5.7% ROI vs. the closing total. Note that this includes games that closed with a total of less than 7.5.

That certainly sounds promising, but the ROI is even better when you cap the opening total at 9 while still having some reasonable volume. In MLB post-season games since 2005 with an opening total between 7.5 and 9, the Under has gone 181-148-14 for +21.60 units and a +6.3% ROI!

Obviously there is no guarantee that this will continue going forward, but it seems worth keeping an eye on.
 
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