MLB Playoffs Under Trend

BMR Lorenzo

New member
You may have noticed that the Under has yet to lose during the 2021 MLB Playoffs going 5-0-1, going 5-0 since the playoffs opened with a push in the Yankees/Red Sox Wild Card Game. So, is this a trend or just an anomaly?

Well, we went back to 2005, and as you might expect, it is never that easy as blindly betting all post-season Unders has gone a losing 272-262-29 for -5.99 units when accounting for juice, an ROI of -1.1%.

BUT things get interesting if we only back the Under in games with an opening total of 7.5 or more, as that has yielded a 206-171-17 mark for +22.45 units and a positive +5.7% ROI vs. the closing total. Note that this includes games that closed with a total of less than 7.5.

That certainly sounds promising, but the ROI is even better when you cap the opening total at 9 while still having some reasonable volume. In MLB post-season games since 2005 with an opening total between 7.5 and 9, the Under has gone 181-148-14 for +21.60 units and a +6.3% ROI!

Obviously there is no guarantee that this will continue going forward, but it seems worth keeping an eye on.
 

BMR_Brad

Moderator
Staff member
Could the books be shading the line against over bettors to account for more casual bettors during the playoffs maybe?
 

BMR Lorenzo

New member
Could the books be shading the line against over bettors to account for more casual bettors during the playoffs maybe?
That is quite possible, the playoffs is when the public can actually move lines due to the sheer dollars bet, unlike the regular season when it is almost purely sharp action moving lines.
 
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