JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

The ML is likely the better early play and then when NY starts to lead, eye that spread on dips for a game that may come down to the spread at the end, not the moneyline.

Portland ml went from low 20's to over 40 and half way through the 2nd NY has taken the lead.

So the only prediction left is that this game come down to the spread, not the ML.

If this game stays close, the lab will have gotten that part wrong, even if it had the Port spread right. One milestone will be if NY can win the 1st half moneyline.

Port leads 29-28 at this timeout with 2:53 to go in the half.

 

[KVB]

One final thing, at these numbers it's a consideration to take NY -11.5 to dump later when it gets there.

But the play has been Portland since the line came out and taking ANY NY at the Trading Desk, regardless of the number, carries that inherent risk.

The risk of Portland outright winning this game means NY, no matter the number, is off limits a the Trading Desk, even if the Lab thinks this game is about the spread.

The second most probable result the Lab gives is the Portland ml the nod, and that has to be respected.

 

[KVB]

The ML is likely the better early play and then when NY starts to lead, eye that spread on dips for a game that may come down to the spread at the end, not the moneyline.

NY didn't get the 1st half ml but is making a 3rd quarter push to get as much as a 6 point lead.

Let's see if they can get it up to 10 points.

 

[KVB]

NY took a 47-70 lead and this 11.5 market got volatile, and actually had contracts go off +11.5 at .49 cents as there was a hole in the order book and it dipped down to execute.

It wasn't me, I wasn't putting orders in yet.

Fuk.

 

[KVB]

The ML is likely the better early play and then when NY starts to lead, eye that spread on dips for a game that may come down to the spread at the end, not the moneyline.

NY didn't get the 1st half ml but is making a 3rd quarter push to get as much as a 6 point lead.

Let's see if they can get it up to 10 points.

NY got to that 10 point lead but the +11.5 only got down to .53

I was trying to get in below .50 and had orders at .49, .48, .47

But no dice.

 

[jjgold]

KB I put the hockey game on. It seems like a good game.

 

[KVB]

KB I put the hockey game on. It seems like a good game.

Are you paying attention Gold?

Been dead on here, why would I be looking at anything else?

Besides, got the BBQ firing up again too.

 

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Are you paying attention Gold?

Been dead on here, why would I be looking at anything else?

Besides, got the BBQ firing up again too.

 

[KVB]

View attachment 93101

Sadly, I'm not going to have any of this Portland spread at the Trading Desk, but the BBQ is firing up...

 

[KVB]

The risk of Portland outright winning this game means NY, no matter the number, is off limits a the Trading Desk, even if the Lab thinks this game is about the spread.

The second most probable result the Lab gives is the Portland ml the nod, and that has to be respected.

If this game is going to be about he ML, then the Portland ml could easily go from this .32 cent level to .50 cents.

could

But I don't have a legit cause to buy there, and it wasn't in the Trading plan.

 

[KVB]

I'll admit, I did try to get Port ml as a limit order at .30 cents but it didn't hit.

Then it took off.

 

[KVB]

For the 2nd game the Lab likes GS -12.5 and OVER 159.5

These are sportsbook plays but not sure how this will go on the exchange as Kalshi is dealing the 161.5

 

[KVB]

Picked up GS -12.5 @ .53 cents.

 

[KVB]

GS -12.5 @ .53 cents.

Tried to get GS -8.5 for .70 cents for another strike but I didn't get filled.

Feels like I should have there, I guess the NO sellers bailed just in time.

 

[KVB]

Stop With this WNBA stuff and start betting the NBA playoffs

Just what am I supposed to do with this at the trading desk?

It's untradeable...

 

[KVB]

GS -12.5 @ .53 cents.

Shit, missed -8.5 again in what was an order book full of phantom computer orders or something. I was aiming for mid 60s because that was the next stop.

Sometimes that book moves fast, with no fills, especially with multiple small contract orders all over the place.

Becoming the thread of near misses, a lot more about what I didn't do than did do today, lol.

 

[KVB]

For the 2nd game the Lab likes GS -12.5 and OVER 159.5

These are sportsbook plays

GS -12.5 @ .53 cents.

Up 50% at halftime with a 47-30 lead but I'm playing this a little loose and not selling.

One of these days I'll learn.

lol

 

[KVB]

Tried to get GS -8.5 for .70 cents for another strike but I didn't get filled.

Shit, missed -8.5 again

Sure wish I had this second strike.

Fukk

 

[KVB]

GS -12.5 @ .53 cents

GS leading by 25 points 73-48 and these contracts are trading .99 x .96

If they lose the 4th quarter by 13 points it would be an epic collapse nobody will see because the ml isn't at stake.

The Lab says to hold, the Trader will hold and not pay any of these extreme price commissions giving a small cushion to drop before making moves to get out.

 

[KVB]

GS -12.5 @ .53 cents.

This will settle for 1.00 @ a 88.68% profit.