JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[jjgold]

KVB I’m off the exchange. I’m not home. I’m enjoying New Jersey good Italian food most of the time seeing some old friends and family this week.

 

[KVB]

KVB I’m off the exchange. I’m not home. I’m enjoying New Jersey good Italian food most of the time seeing some old friends and family this week.

 

[KVB]

Pho/Atl UNDER 168.5 @ .60 cents

A 25 point 3rd quarter has put this well within range.

I calculate a current LIVE line of around 145-146 points in the 4th.

Would take some OT to fukk me here, which is not ruled out at all.

 

[jjgold]

KVB you should be out with the family having a barbecue

 

[KVB]

Pho/Atl UNDER 168.5 @ .60 cents

This will settle for 1.00 @ a 66.67% profit.

@jjgold there was literally no commission on these trades. Poly would have charged 2% on the winning settlement.

Fukk that. If you do it right, you do what I did and you're not complaining about fees.

 

[KVB]

KVB you should be out with the family having a barbecue

Yes, I'm done for now. There is another WNBA game to go off, but I'm off the desk for now.

 

[KVB]

Wash leads Atl 1-0 in the middle of the 6th.

The Lab likes Atl to take the lead, and possibly outright win the game but he price of Atl at .45 cents is too much in this instance as Atl is favorite pre-game.

Wash eeked out the 1st 5 ml in the top of the 5th and since we've broken halftime, the time value should have a bigger effect.

The Trader will pass on Atl at .45 cents, but an out or two in the bottom of the 6th could really drop that price, of course, then, the circumstances are a little different.

 

[KVB]

In the WNBA the Lab favors Wash ml in an UNDER 159.5

In both instances, the pregame price is just a little high (.64 jfor ML asnd .55 for the Total at market) and the Trader notes that the Lab "favors" those positions, it doesn't "like" them.

So that's more of a lean and we will pay a little attention to this game to see what develops.

The chicken legs are almost ready for the bbq.

 

[KVB]

Just not dialed in today.

Already missed a good UNDER trade on the first WNBA game.

Watched my golfer go to zero and couldn't get out.

Might just take the day off.

Actually, I just put an order in for that UNDER

lol

These posts were like a minute apart.

I apologize but as I was submitting the first post I was looking at the order book, it was just hitting halftime, and the book was jumping all around, rapidly with small oders. I saw some 50s.

So I put an order in at .60 and just about half hit and I was about to post that I had 1/2 the position when it filled.

I try chime in with what direction I'm going to give an idea of what I'm doing so I apologize for saying day off then a minute later jumping into the market.

But it's a game of numbers and when those numbers moved into range all of the sudden I had a second chance at what I posted I missed.

That's what happened there.

 

[KVB]

This is a mistake. I did not close this for .25 cents once it was all said and done.

Here is the correction...

Closed this position for .18 cents @ a -73.13% loss.

This post will be the linked one in the results.

This post might have gone unnoticed but note the honesty here.

@DiggityDaggityDo might remember in the old FlyMe days I was on a vacation and for whatever reason in one of the MLB Funds I didn't post some results.

I insisted on putting it in as we are tracking that strategy and I never want the tracking to be wrong. I added like 3 or 4 losers to the record.

I'm not here to prove anything, not here to look good, this thread is here to be a realtime view of the LIVE trading experience. That includes, wins, losses, psychology, longer term tracking, successful trades, even those failed attempts I talk about.

This is meant to be kept real. The reality is that I've never traded on Kalshi during WNBA or MLB before as this is the first year on the exchange and you never know what will happen...my wife has had to remind me of this a few times.

Not many would make the correction I made above, would you?

 

[KVB]

In the WNBA the Lab favors Wash ml in an UNDER 159.5

Right now the game is showing Wash ML in an OVER.

I think one of those current conditions will change, but not sure how I'm calculating it at the Desk.

I may wait until the actual halftime to run the numbers, maybe take advantage of a potential early 3rd quarter move.

 

[KVB]

Wash leads Atl 1-0 in the middle of the 6th.

This game is in a rain delay.

Fukk.

 

[KVB]

Austin Eckroat Top20 @ .27 cents

This will expire for 0 and a total loss.

There was a chance to get out of this on Saturday night for a small gain.

I took it into Sunday and very quickly the liqudity dropped and the spread widened. For much of the day it cost more to buy him than I paid, but I could only sell it for a major loss.

I had tons of orders in trying to break that spread but it just didn't happen. He was close sneaking into the Top20 but in the end failed.

I couldn't get out, and had to take the total loss.

I don't consider this an error of any kind, I worked the book the best I could but it's serves as reminder that these Top10 and Top 20 contracts can really trade thin.

Like many of the MLB runlines, they become more like a sportsbook bet once the position is opened because of how thinly they trade.

This first year on the exchange is a learning experience at all levels.

 

[KVB]

Right now the game is showing Wash ML in an OVER.

I think one of those current conditions will change, but not sure how I'm calculating it at the Desk.

I may wait until the actual halftime to run the numbers, maybe take advantage of a potential early 3rd quarter move.

Wash was ahead 14-7 when I posted this.

Sea took the lead 26-24 at the end of the first period.

The game remains on an OVER 159.5 pace as I have the LIVE Total calulated around 168 to 170

 

[KVB]

Right now the game is showing Wash ML in an OVER.

I think one of those current conditions will change, but not sure how I'm calculating it at the Desk.

I may wait until the actual halftime to run the numbers, maybe take advantage of a potential early 3rd quarter move.

Sea flipped that moneyline and has taken a 12 point lead at halftime.

A halftime or 2nd half trade feels like over trading, had I capitalized on the Sea ml flip in the 1st half.

I calculate the potential Total in a range of 165 to 167 and it's off the pace that it was on with potential to dip below 159.5.

Will be interesting to see if there is a 2nd half trade on that Total, as UNDER 159.5 is trading below .30 cents.

There are some boxes not getting checked and conditions that just keep the Lab and Trader from what looks like gambling here, and not a patient trade.

 

[jjgold]

KVB take some shots tonight

 

[KVB]

KVB take some shots tonight

 

[Wagerallsports]

A 25 point 3rd quarter has put this well within range.

I calculate a current LIVE line of around 145-146 points in the 4th.

Would take some OT to fukk me here, which is not ruled out at all.

Just did avoid OT & stayed under

 

[jjgold]

Pound Oklahoma City live

 

[Wagerallsports]

Sea flipped that moneyline and has taken a 12 point lead at halftime.

A halftime or 2nd half trade feels like over trading, had I capitalized on the Sea ml flip in the 1st half.

I calculate the potential Total in a range of 165 to 167 and it's off the pace that it was on with potential to dip below 159.5.

Will be interesting to see if there is a 2nd half trade on that Total, as UNDER 159.5 is trading below .30 cents.

There are some boxes not getting checked and conditions that just keep the Lab and Trader from what looks like gambling here, and not a patient trade.

Good call to stay away