JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

Just did avoid OT & stayed under

I have to admit I got a little loose there, I almost sold in the upper 80s/lower 90s a few times and probably should have.

And for the longest time the spread was like .94 x .84 and just felt like I should get more than .84

They definitley came close to OT and the point of trading is to not be in those final shit moments, at least most of the time.

All those fouls and reviews were killing me too...

 

[Wagerallsports]

Pound Oklahoma City live

9-0 run

 

[KVB]

Pound Oklahoma City live

9-0 run

Took a low of .20 cents to almost .40 cents...

 

[KVB]

I get this feeling OKC gets stuck in the .30 cent range and never really breaks out before falling.

There might be a good surge in there, but I think San Antonio gets this one.

I think San Antonio is the better team.

If OKC can't flop and can't hook and hold Wemby, if the refs clean the game up, I think SA wins the series.

 

[Wagerallsports]

SA 5-10 from FT line

 

[Wagerallsports]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2058719791863738461

 

[KVB]

Here are the golf results with the link to the play. 1 trede and 1 total loss

CJ CUP Byron Nelson PGA Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 Austin Eckroat Top 20 0.27 0 -100.0% -100.00 Total . . . [td] -100.00​

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[KVB]

Here are the overall golf results with links. This weekend's total loss with no other trades mark the worst tourney so far.

The Lab is going to need to provide more options for the Trader as the tournaments progress, not unlike earlier in the season.

Notice the Cognizant, my best tourney. There were 8 trades that week and there were 2 total losses yet still positive more than +5 units.

Tourney Per $100 Cognizant 3/1 512.64 Arnold Plamer -19.68 TPC -25.55 Masters 42.07 PGA Championship 284.62 CJ CUP Byron Nelson -100.00 Total [td] 694.09​

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[KVB]

Here's the Summer Fund with links to the plays.

Almost got back today what was lost yesterday.

The Fund is +2.4259 units or +$242.59 per $100 bet in May and just shy of the +10 unit mark. I get out of yesterday's play just a little sooner and we're over that mark.

Pretty good job in the Lab this weekend as all suggested plays, even golf, got a bump to profit at one point while the Trader played a patient game, but a loose one, even in today's win.

Date Issue Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 3-May TEX +1.5 0.72 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.4 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.23 0 -1 -100 9-May Indiana ML 0.18 0.4 1.22 122.22 . Kopylov 0.52 0.32 -0.38 -38.46 . Kopylov 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 . ARI ML 0.5 1 1.00 100.00 . Miller/Gordon GTD NO 0.49 1 1.04 104.08 . ARI + 1.5 0.55 1 0.82 81.82 10-May ANA ML 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 13-May Indiana ML 0.57 1 0.75 75.44 15-May Phoenix ML 0.62 0.89 0.44 43.55 . Phoenix -3.5 0.53 0.79 0.49 49.06 17-May Tor/LA UNDER 172.5 0.45 0.26 -0.42 -42.22 . Tor/LA UNDER 180.5 0.65 0.55 -0.15 -15.38 18-May Portland ML 0.56 1 0.79 78.57 . Portland -1.5 0.53 0.25 -0.53 -52.83 19-May Tor/Pho UNDER 169.5 0.49 0 -1.00 -100.00 . Tor/Pho UNDER 169.5 0.27 0 -1.00 -100.00 20-May Dallas ML 0.45 0.72 0.60 60.00 22-May Seattle ML 0.4 0.79 0.98 97.50 23-May Las Vegas ML 0.67 0.18 -0.73 -73.13 24-May Pho/Atl UNDER 168.5 0.6 1 0.67 66.67 . May Total . . . 242.59 . April . . . 752.81 . Total [td] 995.40​

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[KVB]

So with this first WNBA game we liked Portland +13 and +12.5 in the books and felt there was some manipulation to raise this line with early limits and then hit the underdog on the spread when limits raised.

We saw that line go from 14 in some spots, down to 10.5 everywhere. To be clear, I didn't predict the manipulation happening, but when the line rose to 13 and then some, I felt that was manipulation occurring, I knew that dog would get hit onthe spread.

These, however, are not Trading Desk issues.

 

[KVB]

The Trading plan may be to take Portland spread on the dips and a consideration of riding the .20 cent moneyline up a bit early in the game.

Those are two contradictory conditions, so let's see how this plays out early. The ML is likely the better early play and then when NY starts to lead, eye that spread on dips for a game that may come down to the spread at the end, not the moneyline.

 

[KVB]

Shit while typing that post we were looking at a stable .20 cent moneyline.

Now it's bouncing off of .25 cents and the game hasn't started.

 

[KVB]

consideration of riding the .20 cent moneyline up a bit early in the game.

Portland ml becoming ridiculously overpriced now pre game, that market bias could put a crinkle in that trading plan.

 

[KVB]

Portland ml becoming ridiculously overpriced now pre game, that market bias could put a crinkle in that trading plan.

Even with a bias Portland is going to need a sizeable early game lead to move that moneyline.

Playing close isn't enough until the diminishing time value of NY ml starts to take effect, but we think this is about the spread at that point.

 

[jjgold]

Stop With this WNBA stuff and start betting the NBA playoffs

 

[KVB]

I need to stop worrying about posting analysis, Portland now up 11-5 and I just missed the .53 cent +11.5 and the ml is up 50% early.

The Lab was right, the Trader was on BMR.

lol

 

[KVB]

Stop With this WNBA stuff and start betting the NBA playoffs

Gold, I'm dead on with the WNBA game analysis so far.

Why would I stop?

It's posting at BMR that's getting in the way.

 

[jjgold]

When Clark’s not playing, I don’t pay attention to that league

 

[KVB]

a game that may come down to the spread at the end, not the moneyline.

One final thing, at these numbers it's a consideration to take NY -11.5 to dump later when it gets there.

But the play has been Portland since the line came out and taking ANY NY at the Trading Desk, regardless of the number, carries that inherent risk.

 

[KVB]

When Clark’s not playing, I don’t pay attention to that league

I don't give a shit who's playing.

I'm not a jersey wearing fan, like you.