JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

They should be going after the fukkers who shorted oil and bought S&P minis 15 minutes before Trump announced he would hold off bombing power plants in Iran.

I mean, that's some real shit. There's national security implications.

Same thing last June, when we bombed with Israel.

 

[KVB]

Agreed I like it

I don’t think either budge within a week

It was .56 cents now it's down to .52 cents.

Can't see any new news on that.

 

[KVB]

Kind of like the Giants in MLB but will likely just feel it out.

I think the Giants make a push during the game, maybe even lead early.

Will be watching to see what kind of movement we get.

Currently Kalshi is showing 1.85 million in volume and that will rise.

 

[KVB]

In the "mentions" section of the game "Barry Bonds" is YES .66 x NO .35

This game is on Netflix and Bonds is a part of the pre-game and post-game analyst team.

Will they say his name during the game? Seems highly probable.

 

[KVB]

I don't really bet the mentions but:

Barry Bonds YES at .66 cents
Pitch Clock YES at .56 cents.

Seem like they should hit.

I would think pitch clock, especially in the first game of the season, would be mentioned. We know they will say "challenge" but the YES on that is .98 cents.

I have not picked up any contracts, just sort of running down the list here.

 

[KVB]

Democrats digging in and not falling for the open everything else now while we pass a reconcilation bill later that means we can ignore your demands.

Shit, a great answer if Dems would agree, but for whatever reason it was hard to get Trump on board (he tried to tie any deal to other bills now, like the SAVE act. That won't pass, and trying to tie it to the shutdown is ridiculous and not realistic according to Senate Republicans.

Either way, Dems are still digging in and I'm looking at "Before Apr 1" NO at .56 cents.

Seems like a potential short. Only risk here is that there really has been movement in talks, even if it failed, and the Lab is bullish on a shutdown ending once TSA checks stopped coming...which has happened.

What do we like here?

Agreed I like it

I don’t think either budge within a week

It was .56 cents now it's down to .52 cents.

Can't see any new news on that.

Down to .49 cents.

 

[jjgold]

The Dems are gonna win every election Trump lost yesterday in his own backyard. Big big trouble.

 

[KVB]

I don't really bet the mentions but:

Barry Bonds YES at .66 cents
Pitch Clock YES at .56 cents.

Seem like they should hit.

Pregame still

Bonds is at .75 cents.
Pitch Clock up to .88 cents

 

[KVB]

Kind of like the Giants in MLB but will likely just feel it out.

I think the Giants make a push during the game, maybe even lead early.

Will be watching to see what kind of movement we get.

Currently Kalshi is showing 1.85 million in volume and that will rise.

Giants get 3 outs and .47 cents moves to .52 cents.

They haven't even betted yet.

That's good movement, I can work with that when it comes to a team leading early. Let's see what happens when the Giants get a run in the bottom of the 1st.

 

[KVB]

I think MLB trading is going to be just fine.

Scalps will be available.

There just needs to be a trading plan.

 

[Wagerallsports]

It was .56 cents now it's down to .52 cents.

Can't see any new news on that.

Down to .49 cents.

How does Kalshi handle these predictions if an official announcement comes on one day, but it’s said the actual agreement came the day before?

 

[Wagerallsports]

This morning bought a little bit of NO Before March 30 at -191

 

[KVB]

How does Kalshi handle these predictions if an official announcement comes on one day, but it’s said the actual agreement came the day before?

Read it carefully.

There are different rulse depending on the page you are on.

For this one we are looking at, the bill must become a law.

Announcements won't matter. Bills must pass the chamber, not just be agreed upon in committee. President has to sign into law.

But the very top of the page we were looking at yesterday also says this....

Important information: To clarify, any legislation enacted after Issuance and prior to the Expiration Date that provides funding for one or more DHS components satisfies the Payout Criterion, including partial funding (e.g., a bill funding TSA and FEMA but not ICE). Previously enacted legislation does not independently satisfy the criterion.

So they don't have to fund it all. They almost funded some this week, but that fell through.

There are other contracts about when DHS will get full year funding, they can have different rules.

April

 

[Wagerallsports]

Gotcha

 

[KVB]

This morning bought a little bit of NO Before March 30 at -191


View attachment 89015

What I'm trying to figure out are these numbers.

Apr 1st NO is .41 cents. That's not -168.

So what are we looking at here? I mean that for both of us. Not a right or wrong, it just looks we are looking at the same page seeing two very different numbers.

I just took this screenshot...

 

[Wagerallsports]

It’s probably changed a lot since I posted that

Been fluctuating significantly all day so far

 

[KVB]

So close to picking up the Mets down two to nothing to Pittsburgh

But I guess that’s not really being patient

Lololol

In the grind, I would’ve bought them already in the Sports book LIVE

 

[KVB]

It’s probably changed a lot since I posted that

Been fluctuating significantly all day so far

I was trying to look at the charts to see when it got there

You’re right there has been fluctuation, but I don’t see it quite getting into those numbers

The chart doesn’t necessarily always show that. The chart often shows the forecasted number and not what it last traded at. I think I can mess with Settings on that though.

 

[Wagerallsports]

I just took this & im in sports fan mode

March 30 NO down to -104

I got it at -191

Earlier it went well over -300

 

[KVB]

I’ve been messing around on Kalshi since December 31, still learning myself here.