JJGOLD Kalshi Is The Exchange We've Been Waiting For!!!!

[KVB]

I've even put orders in far from market, usually buys at a low price, trying to anticipate, or really sometimes just hope for, a litquidity sweep.

 

[KVB]

Now that MLB is starting, I will keep an eye on those markets to see if we get the moves we expects and I don't see why we wouldn't as they have come in the LIVE betting markets and we should see the exchange at least tend towards those LIVE lines.

If they to tend toward are those lines, there is some efficiency across the market and that's not terrible, it's tradeable.

If the exchanges are far from the LIVE betting lines then there is an inefficiency that we can likely exploit.

So in either case I think the market is tradeable and given the silly volume of the preseason games, I think we see some tradeable liquidity in the regular season.

 

[Wagerallsports]

This is my worry.

It will end up more like just flat out LIVE betting, just a lot cheaper.

I can work with that, but will have to acknowledge it's no Hoops.

Don’t stress yourself out

You are in control as to what you do & don’t trade

That reminder to yourself will keep your work fun & exciting

 

[jjgold]

Kvb you might have to look into tennis markets there is big swings


Liquidity and volatility are keys to trading

 

[KVB]

Kvb you might have to look into tennis markets there is big swings


Liquidity and volatility are keys to trading

Yeah I've hit some tennis but I have real problem with some of the rules in the case of injury or withdrawal.

Not to mention, I'm comfortable trading only the basics of ideas for tennis, which is enough, but it becomes a lot of work for the risk.

Imagine me saying that.

There will be Golf this summer, more of simmering plays, but there can be some good movement in TOP 20 if you cap it right.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Any teams left in the tournament with longer odds you feel might pull off a win and sell for a profit afterwards?

 

[KVB]

Any teams left in the tournament with longer odds you feel might pull off a win and sell for a profit afterwards?

I might have more to add to you thoughts before tip off tomorrow, as I keep working in the LAb today, but I did post this and because it's so cheap might be able to get something out of if they beat Duke...

St. John's 3 cents to win it all

Have to think that goes up if they beat duke.

Probably 3 to 4 times banger. If they knock off Duke, that's going to 9-12 cents easy, maybe more because there are less teams after the next round.

But Mich and Zona, and even Houston advancing will take a lot of air out of the other teams, at least for the elite 8 round.

But it's true that if Mich and Zona are still in the mix they will command the market,.

Beating Duke should give St. Johns some credit, but hard to overcome those other teams as far as odds shifting.

That's why St John's is the initial thought for movement with a win

1) only .03 cents, a lot more potential than, say Purdue.
2) Beating Duke should get a little bit of respect to offset those big favorites to win.
3) If mich or Zona can also bumped off, then there's even better movement and movement for anyone left.

 

[KVB]

Houston, Iowa st, uconn, illinois, can all move with a win, but like I'm saying, getting one or more of those top teams out along with their win really creates more room to move and perfect storm.

Hoston is .11 cents, if they win and Mich, Zona, or Duke lose it might approach .20 cents.

Seems like St. john's as cheap as they are, can get the most by beating Duke in the event that the other top teams all move on.

 

[KVB]

On a similar but other note, I think, with all this attention on the top, one of the biggest surprises this tourney could bring would be the the champion coming out of the Big East.

That idea has been on my whiteboard for a good week.

 

[jjgold]

KVP if you’re not betting tennis, you’re a jerk off there’s very good liquidity in the better matches

 

[Wagerallsports]

^^^

That's right, I forgot about that post

 

[KVB]

KVP if you’re not betting tennis, you’re a jerk off there’s very good liquidity in the better matches

Bruh, there has been tennis bet in this thread.

So take it easy. I'm just saying the methods used to predict the volatility have to be applied in a special way with tennis, and it requires in depth market knowledge.

There might be excellent tennis cappers, even here at BMR, and they can profit from their bets, but none of them will have the market knowledge I'm talking about.

It's a different animal, Gold, and while it's easy to say we can attack that volatility from the outside, when you're in the Lab and in the trenches of the Trading Desk, it's not so easy.

It's easy to know the volatility is there and say "see, look there it is' after the fact. It's another thing to predict it.

 

[Wagerallsports]

St Johns is a good one, but I keep looking at Michigan St (+3015) & Tennessee (+4572 * higher) too

Some of the longer remaining odds, but their next matchup is not far from a pick'em

I'm just not sure how much they would sell for/drop for if they got through though.....??

 

[KVB]

St Johns is a good one, but I keep looking at Michigan St (+3015) & Tennessee (+4572 * higher) too

Some of the longer remaining odds, but their next matchup is not far from a pick'em

I'm just not sure how much they would sell for/drop for if they got through though.....??

Yeah, that's sort of the rub.

It's not just the team getting the win and moving on, it's just as much who is left at the top to keep the odds low.

Have to look at the whole thing, see the whole forest, rather than focusing on a longer odd tree to move on.

That's where gaming out scenarios can come into play. I'll try to nail down some moneyflow parlays and post it to give an idea of what the next round will look like with certain team going on and others failing.

Another issue is that those moneyflow parlays are really just about the spread result, so getting teams that win but don't cover can throw that off.

For example, Kansas was the answer, as they covered the +3.5 against St. Johns, but Kansas didn't move on.

This isn't easy, lol, and this tournament right now is pretty hard to resolve.

 

[KVB]

This isn't easy, lol, and this tournament right now is pretty hard to resolve.

One example, when reviewing where the money falls, that shows how tight it is right now is the fact that 1/2 of the games on Sunday had Totals that fell between the Opening and Closing line, pushing one of them in a few of the cases.

Whether it's time of year, time of week, time of season, time of month, time in the game, or even time of day...

"It's not what you bet, it's when you bet it."

-- KVB

 

[KVB]

Democrats digging in and not falling for the open everything else now while we pass a reconcilation bill later that means we can ignore your demands.

Shit, a great answer if Dems would agree, but for whatever reason it was hard to get Trump on board (he tried to tie any deal to other bills now, like the SAVE act. That won't pass, and trying to tie it to the shutdown is ridiculous and not realistic according to Senate Republicans.

Either way, Dems are still digging in and I'm looking at "Before Apr 1" NO at .56 cents.

Seems like a potential short. Only risk here is that there really has been movement in talks, even if it failed, and the Lab is bullish on a shutdown ending once TSA checks stopped coming...which has happened.

What do we like here?

 

[Wagerallsports]

Agreed I like it

I don’t think either budge within a week

 

[jjgold]

I can’t believe they’re gonna get that bill to vote in the Senate to ban these exchanges

 

[KVB]

Agreed I like it

I don’t think either budge within a week

If they do get somewhere, they will move fast.

Sure looked like they might get at least TSA open this week, but then no.

And that digging in sure feels like this will go on longer.

Trump can send ICE and the National Guard, and whoever to the airports. Even if that doesn't really help, it seems like it would reduce the urgency on the that side to get TSA back up.

And Dems sure are digging in. The last time, they dug in only to completely give up, lol, because it was causing more harm than good. This time feels different, but doesn't have to be.

 

[KVB]

I can’t believe they’re gonna get that bill to vote in the Senate to ban these exchanges

A new bipartisan bill, the "Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act," introduced in the Senate on March 23, 2026, by Senators Adam Schiff and John Curtis, aims to ban sports betting and "casino-style" games on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.

But the supreme court already said you can't ban sportsbetting nationally.

So let's see what happens in the near future.