How to beat closing line

[billybobcoverz]

I am a bit new to sports betting and have spent time watching a Spankodds screen and following sharp books...but I still haven't beat the closing line consistently or am totally sure how to predict line movement and where the market is going...does anyone here have any tips or advice on how to do this? is it following steam? picking off numbers? Anything helps. Thank you guys

 

[qurious$]

You have to study. Spend a few hours a day. For a season or two.

It's not even difficult, just mind-numbing at times. You have to be very motivated to get to the top. At beating the closers, learning foreign languages or mastering anything else.

Shortcuts like following steam - on its own - will waste your time and just lead to disappointment long term. Like with anything else.

 

[Tanko]

One thing (of many) to consider if you are working to cap games is to bet the lines early. Review them as soon as they are posted to find an edge. This only applies if your not chasing steam or applying some other method.

The lines listed as "Opening" aren't really the very first lines created. Market making books (Pinny, Circa, Bookmaker,...) give their lines to their clientele of sharps who are allowed to bet on them (with limits) so that the books can get better information and make adjustments before posting them as "Opening Lines" for everyone else. But, those "Opening Lines" are as fresh as you or I will ever see.

There still can be an edge that has not been beaten out of the lines. But, as they age/move, the edges will disappear.Why? Because there are smarter people than you and I seeing the same information and will bet and move the lines.

There are hundreds of other things to consider on how to beat the CLV (closing line value) but getting in early is one of them. Of course you have to be on the correct side not matter what.

 

[Tanko]

You have to study. Spend a few hours a day. For a season or two.

It's not even difficult, just mind-numbing at times. You have to be very motivated to get to the top. At beating the closers, learning foreign languages or mastering anything else.

Shortcuts like following steam - on its own - will waste your time and just lead to disappointment long term. Like with anything else.

This!
It takes work to beat the closing lines. No "system" will ever be consistently profitable. You've got to study the information and adjust as the markets adjust.

 

[Tanko]

Great post @billybobcoverz .
I'm looking forward to other's comments on this topic.

 

[jjgold]

1st off spank odds pure garbage
not even worth $10 a month
free stuff just as good

Secondly you have to bet openers heavily

 

[BigJay]

You have to study.

 

[qurious$]

One thing (of many) to consider if you are working to cap games is to bet the lines early. Review them as soon as they are posted to find an edge. This only applies if your not chasing steam or applying some other method.

The lines listed as "Opening" aren't really the very first lines created. Market making books (Pinny, Circa, Bookmaker,...) give their lines to their clientele of sharps who are allowed to bet on them (with limits) so that the books can get better information and make adjustments before posting them as "Opening Lines" for everyone else. But, those "Opening Lines" are as fresh as you or I will ever see.

There still can be an edge that has not been beaten out of the lines. But, as they age/move, the edges will disappear.Why? Because there are smarter people than you and I seeing the same information and will bet and move the lines.

There are hundreds of other things to consider on how to beat the CLV (closing line value) but getting in early is one of them. Of course you have to be on the correct side not matter what.

Good point about sharps shaping lines before lines being released to the public.

It's a very clever shortcut bookmakers came up with years ago, so they don't have to pay astronomical salaries to guys who are 10x smarter than you will ever be.

It's a fun exercise. Just don't expect it to be easy, or profitable (quickly anyway), @billybobcoverz.

Have fun and keep us posted on your progress. If you stay committed to the journey, and if you have a personality, you can make a living just selling content even if you are a lifetime 51% bettor (and just break even)

 

[qurious$]

View attachment 27022

One more suggestion to OP:

Do it now. Don't wait.

 

[BigJay]

One more suggestion to OP:

Do it now. Don't wait.

View attachment 27023

 

[krit]

Beating the closing line can be a bit overrated. Yes it’s nice to have the best line, but a lot of the times it doesn’t matter.

Personally, if you really do care, just watch lines and follow the juice.

 

[BMR Genie]

Welcome to BMR Forum, Billy!

 

[billybobcoverz]

Beating the closing line can be a bit overrated. Yes it’s nice to have the best line, but a lot of the times it doesn’t matter.

Personally, if you really do care, just watch lines and follow the juice.

I have heard Spanky talk lengths about how beating the closing line is the only way to profit. if you get -5 on a game that closes -7 consistently, you will win over 1000+ bets. How else can you profit? All stats and capping are already priced in by the market...

 

[billybobcoverz]

1st off spank odds pure garbage
not even worth $10 a month
free stuff just as good

Secondly you have to bet openers heavily

Coach on betting openers, just watching sharp books move and picking off numbers? How do you beat openers...

Lol on SpankOdds, DonBest clear? What would you use

 

[billybobcoverz]

Welcome to BMR Forum, Billy!

Thank you! Fantastic to be here

 

[BigJay]

I have heard Spanky talk

 

[charliebrown]

Find a square player and ask them for pics right when lines come out. Bet opposite and you should beat closing line at a decent percentage

 

[krit]

I have heard Spanky talk lengths about how beating the closing line is the only way to profit. if you get -5 on a game that closes -7 consistently, you will win over 1000+ bets. How else can you profit? All stats and capping are already priced in by the market...

You might be right, but speaking from personal experience, maybe one or two plays a year I lose, win or push based on the line I get. I have tracked all my basketball plays here the last year and can’t think of many times where it mattered. Very rarely does a game middle.

 

[billybobcoverz]

Great post @billybobcoverz .
I'm looking forward to other's comments on this topic.

Thanks Tanko, would love to learn how you use line movement in your betting

 

[wwurmeier]

You might be right, but speaking from personal experience, maybe one or two plays a year I lose, win or push based on the line I get. I have tracked all my basketball plays here the last year and can’t think of many times where it mattered. Very rarely does a game middle.

Spanky would say that your sample size is too small.