Analytics Capper's Picks of the Day Thread

[Analytics Capper]

I like how Luzardo has been pitching so far this season. Miami is also coming off 4 straight losses so this is a good buy low spot for them. The Padres have a lot of talent but I don't think Nick Martinez can keep them in it.

Marlins ML (-115) v. Padres

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[Analytics Capper]

This play is simple for me. This is a must win game for Boston. They are on home ice. I know they are a short favorite which is a little scary but just going to trust it. They should have one last big fight in them before ultimately going out in the series. Analytically, they've outshot Carolina in both games and have been outscored by a combined 7 goals. There has to be some natural regression there and their 1/8 power play success rate should turn as well.

Bruins ML (-125) v. Hurricanes

 

[Analytics Capper]

Boston is the better team when Milwaukee is missing Middleton. Although the game is in Milwaukee, we've seen Boston completely dominate on the road thiis season. They are the more versatile team and is most likely the best defensive team left in the playoffs. I like Boston to go in and win straight up today.

Celtics +2 (-105) v. Bucks

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[Analytics Capper]

I expect a good performance from Morton today. I think the home team and the Braves bats are coming around.

Braves ML -125 v. Brewers

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[Analytics Capper]

The over hasn't hit once in this series, yet the total continues to rise in game 4. I think Boston has to change strategically what they want to do in this series. I think they need to up the pace and increase the tempo and see if Milwaukee can keep up with them offensively without Middleton. We know Boston has one of the best defenses in the NBA but I think the focus needs to be putting up points.

Celtics v. Bucks over 213

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[Analytics Capper]

Give me Kluber tonight on the mound against an Angels team that had a great offensive game last time out. I think Tampa Bay will come out and take care of business on the road tonight and their offense will be able to produce runs themselves.

Rays ML (-115) v. Angels

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[Analytics Capper]

I'm going to shoot my shot again tonight with the Celtics. I think they are the better team top to bottom when the Bucks are missing Middleton, and I think Boston figured out to play fast and speed up the tempo. They need to force Milwaukee to score and keep up with Boston's depth. I think Boston will be hot from 3 tonight and run away with this game.

Celtics -5.5 (-105) v. Bucks

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[Analytics Capper]

Mets got embarrassed yesterday. They jumped out to an early 3-0 lead in the first inning and it was downhiill from there. The series is tied 1-1 with game 3 today. There's another decisive pitching advantage again today on the mound for New York. I'm just going to trust it and back the better pitching team and the better hitting team. I don't see the Nationals, who have struggling all season, being able to produce 8 runs again today.

Mets ML (-150) v. Nationals

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[Tanko]

Mets.
Lets hope the pitching is just a little bit better than yesterdays mess.

 

[Analytics Capper]

We are going to ride Dallas unders until the wheels fall off. This should be 5-0 on the series, I'll take 4-1 success rate all day. The Stars have zero offense and an elite goalie. Recipe for unders.

Flames v. Stars under 5.5 (-130)

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[Analytics Capper]

Good spot for Texas here coming off a loss. No real piitching advantages for either team, perhaps a slight lean for Otto for Texas who has been in better recent form.

Pick: Rangers ML (-115) v. Red Sox

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[Analytics Capper]

The better team is Boston. The best player in the series and in the NBA is Giannis, but Boston will be too much for him to overcome. He's been a warrior putting the team on his back and bringing Milwaukee this far but I believe the defending champs will go down today. I expect a physical, grind it out game, and the Celtics will have more options at the end of the game to win. They did blow a 15 point 4th quarter lead in Game 5, so there's a bit of a revenge spot as well tonight.

Pick: Celtics -5 (-105) v. Bucks

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[Analytics Capper]

Very interesting line here with Boston favored. The Red Sox are very talented but have underperformed this season, sitting with a record of 13-21 overall. They took 2 of 3 from the Rangers over the weekend but dropped the last game 7-1 on an anemic offensive showing against Martin Perez. For the game tonight, Odorizzi is a bit overrated and I think in a hitters ballpark like the one you have in Boston, he'll get exposed a bit.

Red Sox ML (-120) v. Astros

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[Analytics Capper]

I think the Boston Red Sox are going to go on a run now. They had a great win last night and will take that momentum into tonight against the Astros.

Red Sox ML (-115) v. Astros

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[Analytics Capper]

The Phillies are coming off two losses and getting one of their better arms on the mound tonight. Wheeler hasn't had a great year so far, but Philadelphia is getting their bats back. With Blake Snell making his debut on the other side, I think there will be a relatively low pitch count and we'll see the bullpen come in early for San Diego. Give me the home team tonight to right the ship and get the W.

Phillies ML (-145) v. Padres

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[Analytics Capper]

Must win game for Florida tonight. They weren't as outplayed as the score suggests in game 1. Tampa Bay dominated the power play battle. If Florida, who is 0 for their last 22 power plays, can break the seal I think it'll have a snowball effect on the team.

Panthers ML (-165) v. Liightning

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[Analytics Capper]

Verlander is on the mound for Houston. Going to keep it simple here and back the superior pitcher and the superior team, even though the Rangers have been hot recently.

Pick: Astros -1.5 -115
Units: 1

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[Analytics Capper]

A must win game for Dallas. They need to come out with a lot of energy and much better defense. I think the home crowd will help them immensely today and their defense will lock up the Warriors today.

1H Mavericks -2.5 (-110) v. Warriors
Units: 1

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[Analytics Capper]

Big spot for Pittsburgh whose been playing as of late. I'm not the biggest fan of Brubaker but this spot screams Pirates at home tonight.

Pirates ML (-130) v. Rockies

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[Analytics Capper]

A must win game for Dallas. They need to come out with a lot of energy and much better defense. I think the home crowd will help them immensely today and their defense will lock up the Warriors today. It is most likely the last game at home for the Mavericks this season and the Warriors got their split and should be content.

Mavericks 1H ML -110 v. Warriors

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