Why Has Balls To Bet Old Man Scherzer Tonight?
- Thread starter jjgold
- Start date
carolinakid
- Joined
- Oct 20, 2021
- Messages
- 39,046
| Steam-Play Alert |
| 10/30/23 07:39:43am Pacific Time |
| MLB: Game 945 (ORN# 1) Texas Rangers/Arizona Diamondbacks - OVER 9 |
Wagerallsports
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2018
- Messages
- 85,334
It's a gamble for sure
I've posted vig free forecasts in the first two games.
In game 1, I had Texas slightly favored in a slight coin flip, so took Arizona as the +140, or so, dog.
In game 2, I had Zona favored in an even less coinflip but still got the same Arizona +138, or so, dog.
That's a small profit so far with game 1 a late loser and game 2 a convincing win.
Today, for game three, I have Texas once again slightly favored to win about 52.13% of the time, to Zona's 47.87% of the time.
That's a vig free line of about -108/+108 with Texas, the road team, on the -108.
That's basically right at the market this time and I see no value on the game. For now, I have no bet.
In game 1, I had Texas slightly favored in a slight coin flip, so took Arizona as the +140, or so, dog.
In game 2, I had Zona favored in an even less coinflip but still got the same Arizona +138, or so, dog.
That's a small profit so far with game 1 a late loser and game 2 a convincing win.
Today, for game three, I have Texas once again slightly favored to win about 52.13% of the time, to Zona's 47.87% of the time.
That's a vig free line of about -108/+108 with Texas, the road team, on the -108.
That's basically right at the market this time and I see no value on the game. For now, I have no bet.
This ^^^ is my conclusion. Arizona had some generous prices in the first two games but the market is really trying to get bettors to gamble tonight.
Let's see if somehow we get a line move that creates value one way or the other.
Texas loves playing on the road.
• The Rangers have won each of their last eight road games.
• The Rangers have covered the run line each of their last 10 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 7 innings in each of their last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight road playoff games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rangers' last six road games against National League opponents.
• The Rangers have won each of their last eight road games.
• The Rangers have covered the run line each of their last 10 road games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 7 innings in each of their last eight road games against opponents that held a winning record.
• The Rangers have led after 5 innings in each of their last eight road playoff games.
• The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Rangers' last six road games against National League opponents.
This line is tight now. Market with just a slightly different no vig line, about -/+104 to my -/+108.
No overlay anywhere and edges don't seem to be out there.
Looking like a true gamble numbers wise.
Also, based on recent google searches, I'd say the line is tighter that Katie Couric's asshole.
No overlay anywhere and edges don't seem to be out there.
Looking like a true gamble numbers wise.
Also, based on recent google searches, I'd say the line is tighter that Katie Couric's asshole.
How do you know anything about turtles pussy?
Scientist.... We mess with everything, including turtles. Trust me, you really don't want to know more.How do you know anything about turtles pussy?
Turtle twats aside, this line is tight as hell tonight.
I feel like I have pretty good grasp of the market, vig free, etc, even at these high volume games. In genral and this series.
I would expect some texas money at one point here, but man this market is tight.
It's a gamble, for nearly everyone out there right now.
Any + money will get snatched and Pinny as asking for dollars.
I feel like I have pretty good grasp of the market, vig free, etc, even at these high volume games. In genral and this series.
I would expect some texas money at one point here, but man this market is tight.
It's a gamble, for nearly everyone out there right now.
Any + money will get snatched and Pinny as asking for dollars.
@pete0 what does this mean?
Is Pinny welcoming scalpers? Do the need Zona buyers here?
Sometimes it can be deceiving. Does this tight 50-50, or so, trading really warrant some signal that the best book in the world is taking a position in Texas? Trying to take some Zona dollars?
I'm not buying it.
If I were a gambling man, I'd be all over Zona here.
Gimme +109, just above my no vig +108, and I'd take Zona on principal alone.
Does that make sense? The "market reader" portion of my office, the one that deals with situational and money flow issues (and still probability), would say to you that Zona is winning this game.
So much of the market now even money on Arizona. The hold on this game has been so small thanks to that big volume. Dare these books flip to +money on Zona, and increase the volume?
What type of bettor would that bring? Could the market be afraid of some Arizona +EV action.
In this video, I talked about what a book would need to do to increase that volume, and allow a smaller hold...
Can you pick up what I'm putting down?
I said "nearly" everyone because remember there could still be +EV out there.
Just over 30 minutes into that video I talk about the closing value and +EV at the closing line.
Can you pick up what I'm putting down?
This is what I mean when I talk about wanting to always teach by example.
Free Sports Picks by League
Share this page
Free Sports Picks by League