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[KVB]

Here's the Summer Fund with links to the plays.

1 trade, 1 win today to put the fund over +3 units for May and over +10 units overall.

The good news with the Fund is that in the last half of May the number of trading days really picked up. It's getting time to fold more MLB into the mix.

An excellent job in the Lab today, including the sport book plays, and the Trader did well in making a profit but can't help but think about the trades that didn't execute.

Date Issue Bought Sold % Profit Per $100 3-May TEX +1.5 0.72 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.4 0 -1 -100 . TEX +1.5 0.23 0 -1 -100 9-May Indiana ML 0.18 0.4 1.22 122.22 . Kopylov 0.52 0.32 -0.38 -38.46 . Kopylov 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 . ARI ML 0.5 1 1.00 100.00 . Miller/Gordon GTD NO 0.49 1 1.04 104.08 . ARI + 1.5 0.55 1 0.82 81.82 10-May ANA ML 0.7 1 0.43 42.86 13-May Indiana ML 0.57 1 0.75 75.44 15-May Phoenix ML 0.62 0.89 0.44 43.55 . Phoenix -3.5 0.53 0.79 0.49 49.06 17-May Tor/LA UNDER 172.5 0.45 0.26 -0.42 -42.22 . Tor/LA UNDER 180.5 0.65 0.55 -0.15 -15.38 18-May Portland ML 0.56 1 0.79 78.57 . Portland -1.5 0.53 0.25 -0.53 -52.83 19-May Tor/Pho UNDER 169.5 0.49 0 -1.00 -100.00 . Tor/Pho UNDER 169.5 0.27 0 -1.00 -100.00 20-May Dallas ML 0.45 0.72 0.60 60.00 22-May Seattle ML 0.4 0.79 0.98 97.50 23-May Las Vegas ML 0.67 0.18 -0.73 -73.13 24-May Pho/Atl UNDER 168.5 0.6 1 0.67 66.67 25-May Golden St. -12.5 0.53 1 0.89 88.68 . May Total . . . 331.26 . April . . . 752.81 . Total [td] 1084.07​

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[/td]

 

[jjgold]

All right, we’re waiting for the baseball place. Looking forward to it.

 

[Wagerallsports]

Up 50% at halftime with a 47-30 lead but I'm playing this a little loose and not selling.

One of these days I'll learn.

lol

Nice hold

 

[KVB]

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It is critically important that the CFTC’s exclusive authority over Prediction Markets is maintained, and that they will thrive. Under my leadership, we are setting “rules of the road” that are the Gold Standard for the States. We cannot have SCUM like Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz...

trumpstruth.org

 

[KVB]

Nice hold

Yeah, not all plays are the same.

There was a pretty high confidence that the spread was going to be covered, that plays a factor in my decision to hold or sell.

 

[jjgold]

We love Trump

 

[KVB]

We love Trump for being openly corrupt and favoring the prediction markets because his family has interest in their success.

Fixed it for you.

 

[jjgold]

Dead day exchange

 

[KVB]

The Lab likes NY in this first game, especially on the ml but pricing will be an issue, despite this line dropping.

The play is on the Trading Desk, but there's not much of a trading plan here.

 

[KVB]

Picked up New York ML @ .57 cents

 

[KVB]

Picked up New York ML @ .57 cents

This is not a very patient play, to be honest.

It's the first game today in a rotation of 5 games so we're working with less data than we could be, on the other hand, it would a take a particularly chilly market to get burned here and if that's case the Lab will most certainly get it back at one point.

That weighs into the decision here but because accuracy is paramount at the Trading Desk, it means the play is a bit loose.

 

[jjgold]

Clark plays tomorrow all you need to know

Fever -1.5 tomorrow on the road tough game

 

[KVB]

Picked up New York ML @ .57 cents

As loose as it is, I had an order at .30 cents, but it didn't execute.

Was going to try to take advantage of the third quarter rush from Phoenix and lower the average.

If I had executed, I might already be out of the entire position.

 

[subaru80]

Opinion on atl/min?

 

[KVB]

Opinion on atl/min?

None.

It's a tough one. I have that game a pickem and no trade there.

I would be reluctant to fade Minny.

Trading wise it could a good game for most of it so anything off of 50-50, say down to .40 might not be a bad idea for the first half, but that would be aggressive.

Minny currently .43 cents and I'd take that over any other bet.

But I'm likely passing that game.

 

[subaru80]

None.

It's a tough one. I have that game a pickem and no trade there.

I would be reluctant to fade Minny.

Trading wise it could a good game for most of it so anything off of 50-50, say down to .40 might not be a bad idea for the first half, but that would be aggressive.

Minny currently .43 cents and I'd take that over any other bet.

But I'm likely passing that game.

Sounds good. I was leaning minny and over

 

[KVB]

it would a take a particularly chilly market to get burned here and if that's case the Lab will most certainly get it back at one point.

I used the phrase "chilly market" for a number of reasons. The most obvious is that NY is on a 7 game home stretch and they lost the first 3 games.

Just how many were they going to lose? It's no so much the "due factor" by itself but when that stretch starts to affect the market, whether through public perception or just the stats outright.

A 4th loss wasn't out of the cards, but if it happens I'd consider it a cold market.

"But hey, KVB, it's not cold to anyone who's fading last years champs early. Not to mention, it's not cold to the streak riders."

But I'm talking about cold realtive to what I've said for years about these being give and take markets. I use that temperature for a streak breaker in the give and take markets.

If they just start giving, or just taking, the market itself will be affected.

Perhaps it's time for my treatise on how games, even on seperate days, are not independent events from a betting perspective.

Because they are not.

 

[KVB]

Clark plays tomorrow all you need to know

Fever -1.5 tomorrow on the road tough game

That's it huh? Don't need to know anything else?

You're right it's a tough game.

Edit: I had Indiana playing Dallas when I wrote this post. But the don't play Dallas, lol.

 

[KVB]

New York ML @ .57 cents

This will settle for 1.00 @ a 75.44% profit.

 

[KVB]

Man I was tempted to pick up Chicago ml in they very low 20s I'm going to pass, but I almost tossed a 1/2 unit at it.

There's are actually a few tempting trades left today. I'm going pass and take the win into tomorrow.

But I will say, the market is throwing some tempting scenarios out there. They can't all pay and managing the risk of every idea is unwise.

Might need to just walk away from the screens.