The Oregon Ducks kick off the 2021 season by hosting the Fresno State Bulldogs on Saturday. Fresno State destroyed UConn 45-0 in Week 0. Here’s a complete preview for the game, including college football picks.
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, September 04, 2021 – 02:00 PM EDT at Autzen Stadium
The Oregon Ducks opened as 20-point favorites on the college football odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) and ESPN’s Football Power Index gives them an 89.2 percent chance to win. The equivalent
For reference, let’s take a quick look at the F+ Ratings at Football Outsiders last season, where Oregon checked in at No. 26 overall (No. 23 offense, No. 41 defense). That was well ahead of Fresno State at No. 90 (No. 63 offense, No. 96 defense). Need a second source? Sports Reference had UCLA (plus-0.81 SRS) rated almost 10 points better than Fresno State (minus-8.90 SRS) using their Simple Rating System.
Fresno State Looks to Build Momentum
Fresno State is coming off a 3-3 campaign last year, their first season under head coach Kalen DeBoer and they were able to bring back a ton of experience, especially on the offensive side of the ball, with quarterback Jake Haener under center. Haener completed 20 of 26 passes for 331 yards and three touchdowns on against UConn. He will have plenty of returning weapons to throw the ball to in Jalen Cropper, Keric Wheatfall and Josh Kelly. Cropper had three receptions for 87 yards and one touchdown on Saturday and the offensive line has nine players who have started at least one game in their career. That experience can help this weekend.
Running back Ronnie Rivers is also back. He took advantage of the additional year of eligibility granted by the NCAA due to the pandemic and he can be another difference-maker against Oregon. Rivers led Fresno State with 507 rushing yards and seven touchdowns last season and he also had 27 catches for 265 yards and two touchdowns through the air. He ran for 58 yards on 13 carries against UConn last Saturday.
Oregon Wants to Make an Early Statement
Oregon enters the season as the team to beat in the Pac-12. The two-time defending conference champions had a memorable 2019, as star quarterback Justin Herbert ended his college football career with a Rose Bowl win but they went through a quiet rebuild in 2020. Still, head coach Mario Cristobal led a successful recruiting effort and Oregon won the Pac-12 again. Those moves can lead to more consistency this season, especially if their quarterback situation gets sorted. Tyler Shough transferred to Texas Tech and now they will turn to Anthony Brown under center.
Oregon’s Pac-12 slate is manageable and their Week 2 visit to Ohio State gives them a huge opportunity to pad their resume. A 10-win regular season and a shot to make it three straight Pac-12 championships are possible, as long as their offense can take a step forward and they get enough from the quarterback position.
Prediction
Fresno State has to show improvement on third down in order to keep up with Oregon. They were 7-for-16 on third downs against UConn and they allowed them to convert 12.5 percent of third down opportunities. Oregon is a significant step up in competition compared to UConn but they have a new quarterback and this is just their season opener, with a visit to Ohio State in Week 2. I like Oregon to win this game but they might be looking ahead to Ohio State and Fresno State can at least cover this spread.
College Football Pick: Fresno State +21 (-105) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
