Tyson Fury is coming out of retirement (again). This time, he is slated to face Arslanbek Makhmudov. The match will last a maximum of twelve rounds and will take place on Saturday, April 11, at noon ET in London.
Fury is a very heavy favorite, and any investment in a Makhmudov win feels like gold-digging. But don’t worry, sportsbooks have posted Boxing Odds that merit a confident wager.
Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov
For the fight outcome prop, a plus-money option is going to hit. A Tyson Fury win by TKO is listed at -200 at Bovada, but this isn’t realistic in 2026. Fury is currently 37 and hasn’t boxed in over a year.
Even before he was 37, it became apparent that his best days were significantly behind him. He lost his last two bouts, both to Oleksandr Usyk. While Fury won his third-to-last bout against Francis Ngannou in 2023, that win came by decision. So, Fury hasn’t dominated anyone since 2022, which was four years ago. These historical considerations should dissuade anyone from wagering on a Tyson TKO.
Fury’s losing streak and growing offensive weaknesses notwithstanding, I don’t see Makhmudov winning, either. In Fury’s last fight, in 2024 against Usyk, he was very defensive, always keeping his guard up because he was wary of Usyk’s punching. Makhmudov is known to throw a big punch with a lot of power, so Fury is going to be on his guard again.
Fury is known for being able to move very well, especially for a man of his size. His superior movement, relative to Makhmudov’s, will make it hard for the latter to land significant punches.
Makhmudov’s last fight, against Dave Allen last October, also lasted twelve rounds. Makhmudov, who has been training in high altitude, exhibited against Allen both solid endurance and a solid ability to withstand the opponent’s power.
Again, I can’t imagine Fury, with his dominant days behind him, ending the fight via knockout.
Best Value Lies in Over Rounds and Distance Props
With neither boxer knocking the other out, this bout will be a long one. I like the “over” for the number of rounds. It is also worth investing in the fight going the distance prop at plus money.
Expert Picks and Best Bets:
- Expert Pick: Total Rounds Over 7.5 at -135 with Bovada
- Expert Pick: “Yes” for “Will The Fight Go The Distance” at +230 with Bovada
Place Your Bets!
My best bets are the over 7.5 on total rounds and the “yes” on the “will the fight go the distance” prop. Sign up with multiple top sportsbooks so that you can line-shop and get the best number for each of your bets.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
