The Sweet 16 is set, and with it comes a fresh wave of updated NCAA men’s basketball championship odds worth a close look.
The opening weekend of March Madness delivered exactly the kind of drama the tournament is known for. The headline? No. 9 Iowa stunning defending champion and No. 1 seed Florida, 73-72, on a clutch three-pointer from Alvaro Folgueiras with just 4.5 seconds remaining.
That upset reshuffled the title picture heading into the second weekend. With only No. 11 Texas joining the Hawkeyes as a lower seed still dancing, the Sweet 16 is stacked with heavyweights and several matchups that could produce fireworks. Leading the way in the Sweet 16 is a battle between No. 3 Illinois and No. 2 Houston that stands out as a potential war between two of the most complete teams left in the field.
Let’s dig into the updated March Madness championship odds now that the Sweet 16 is locked in.
March Madness Betting Odds: Sweet 16
Odds to win the NCAA Basketball National Championship are courtesy of BetOnline as of March 23 at 9 a.m. ET.
Tier 1: The Favorites
No. 1 Michigan (+310 to win the NCAA Men’s Basketball Title)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +360
Michigan has cruised through the tournament so far, with blowout wins over Howard and Saint Louis. They’re heavy favorites against Alabama in the Sweet 16, so they’re highly likely to get to the Elite Eight. Currently No. 1 overall on KenPom, the Wolverines are the team to beat.
No. 1 Arizona (+330)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +390
Like Michigan, Arizona has taken care of business so far, knocking off Utah State and LIU. The Wildcats are currently on an 11-game winning streak, establishing themselves as a close second favorite to win the tourney. Up next is a tougher game against Arkansas, but they’re currently 8.5-point favorites, so they should get it done.
No. 1 Duke (+430)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +300
Duke looks like a nice value at +430 odds, especially after they bounced back from a disappointing close call vs. Siena with a blowout win over TCU. The Blue Devils entered the tournament as the No. 1 overall seed for good reason: this team has all the tools you need to win, led by Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans.
Tier 2: The Lone Wolf
No. 2 Houston (+700)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +1000
Houston comes in at longer odds, partly because of an upcoming matchup in the Sweet 16 against No. 3 Illinois. The Cougars are 4th in KenPom, but they can easily lose against No. 6 Illinois in this spot. However, this team has looked great so far, blowing out both Texas A&M and Idaho.
Tier 3: The Dark Horses
No. 2 Purdue (+1200)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +2500
Purdue survived a close call against Miami before pulling away at the end of the game. This is a battle-tested squad with an impressive win over Michigan under its belt, back on March 15th. Up next for the Boilermakers is a matchup against Texas, who has the longest odds to win the title out of any remaining team.
No. 3 Illinois (+1600)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +1900
Illinois has looked terrific in the tournament so far, blowing out VCU and Penn. But they’re in a really tough spot against Houston in the Sweet 16, which is partly why their odds are at +1600. But this team has the tools to make a run, led by the No. 2 ranked offense in the country, per KenPom. I like the value at this price.
No. 2 Iowa State (+1800)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +1500
Iowa State started off slow against Kentucky, but really took it to another level in the second half, en route to a 19-point win. The Cyclones have the 5th-ranked defense in the country, but they’ll have to go through Michigan if they’re going to get to the Final Four. Playing without Joshua Jefferson (16.4 PPG this season) also hurts.
Tier 4: The Longshots
No. 3 Michigan State (+2500)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +4000
We can never overlook a Tom Izzo coached team. The Spartans blew out North Dakota State and took care of business against Louisville to get to the Sweet Sixteen. What’s interesting is that they’re currently underdogs against UConn, but have a shorter price to win the National Championship.
No. 2 UConn (+2800)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +2500
Despite their No. 2 seed, the Huskies are 10th in KenPom, which is why they’re a longshot to win the tournament. However, they looked great in a 16-point win against UCLA in their last game. Alex Karaban has dropped 20+ points in each game this tournament, so they’ll need him to keep it going if they’re to make a run.
No. 4 Arkansas (+2800)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +6000
Arkansas has a tough matchup against Arizona in the Sweet 16, but if they can somehow pull off the upset, that would put them in a clear path to the Final Four. The Razorbacks have now won seven in a row, led by Darius Acuff, who just dropped 36 points against High Point.
No. 5 St. John’s (+2800)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +6000
Rick Pitino’s team survived a close call against Kansas, but now they’ll have to go up against Duke in the Sweet 16. The Red Storm are dangerous underdogs, though, led by the eighth-ranked defense in the country, per KenPom. Like Arkansas, if they can shock the world by beating Duke, we could see them in the Final Four.
Tier 5: The Cinderellas
No. 4 Nebraska (+5500)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +10000
Nebraska has had a nice run in this tournament, coming off a wild win over Vanderbilt. The Cornhuskers have the sixth-ranked defense in the country, according to Pomeroy’s rankings. But here’s an interesting note: they’re only 1.5-point favorites against Iowa (+12500) in the Sweet 16, so this (+5500) price feels too expensive.
No. 6 Tennessee (+6000)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +12000
Tennessee is coming off an impressive win against Virginia to get into the Sweet 16, but they have a tough path to the Final Four, with matchups against Iowa State and then likely Michigan. While the price is enticing at (+6000), it doesn’t feel enough of a longshot given their tough path to the National Championship.
Tier 6: The Lottery Tickets
No. 4 Alabama (+10000)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +18000
Alabama has looked terrific throughout the tournament so far, including blowout wins over Texas Tech and Hofstra. But now they have to face the odds-on favorites in Michigan. Alabama will need a big game from Labaron Philon (21.6 PPG) if they’re going to pull off this upset.
No. 9 Iowa (+12500)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: (+30000)
Iowa is coming off a shocking win over Florida. They have an easier path through the Sweet 16 compared to other long shots, as they take on Nebraska, where they’re short underdogs. Still, they’re playing with house money right now. It’s hard to see a scenario where a No. 9 seed wins this tournament.
No. 11 Texas (+17500)
Pre-Tournament Odds To Win: +50000
Texas will have to go through Purdue and Arizona to get to the Final Four. That’s a daunting task for the Longhorns, who are by far the lowest-ranked remaining team on KenPom at 31st. While the (+17500) odds may look enticing, the time to take them was before the tournament started at (+50000).
March Madness Predictions: Duke to win (+430)
I’m sticking with my pre-tourney prediction for the Final Four: Duke, Illinois, Arizona, and Michigan. I have the Blue Devils over the Wolverines in the finals.
It’s become a tournament where the favorites prove why they are favorites, which rules out major upsets in the later rounds for me.
Ride with the Blue Devils to get it done.
