Saturday evening presents an intriguing slate of UFC matchups. The emotion, the stylistic clashes, the power, the technique, everything will be present, and many fights will be worth wagering on.
The three fights that interest me the most are Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr, Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit, and Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg. For my best bets, I will recommend a moneyline pick for each UFC fight.
Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg
This fight presents a cool clash of styles. If you look at the latest Prochazka vs. Ulberg odds, the line reflects just how competitive this matchup is expected to be. Jiri Prochazka likes to inject chaos into his fights and to make them wild. Conversely, Carlos Ulberg likes to stay cool and measured.
This is the kind of fight in which the sort of defensive fundamentals that Ulberg relies on will triumph. The natural way for anyone to respond to the wild sort of chaos that someone like Prochazka brings is to do those fundamental things that you get told as a kid: keep your hands up, your chin down, and so on.
Of course, it’s more difficult than it sounds. Prochazka wins plenty of fights, let’s give credit where credit is due. But Ulberg, who has won nine straight matches, is proficient with fundamentals in general and defensive basics, given his high-level kick-boxing background and given the fact that his patience and technique are characteristic traits that he is used to leaning on.
This is the kind of fighter, someone who can preserve order well despite opposing pressure, who gives Prochazka trouble. For example, Prochazka lost his last two fights to Alex Pereira because the latter, like Ulberg, is a kickboxer who likes to rely on having strong technique and being patient. Ulberg, therefore, has the matchup edge here.
- Expert Pick: Carlos Ulberg ML at -103 with Bovada
Cub Swanson vs. Nate Landwehr
Cub Swanson is getting a lot of love from bettors. You can see the line movement on the Swanson vs. Landwehr odds page, where he is now listed at -102 after opening at +135. The betting love respects the emotional situation. Swanson declared that this will be his last right before retirement.
However, it’s generally a good idea to fade fighters in their last fight because fighters often retire too early. Swanson is a fighter who relies heavily on achieving a KO or TKO. While he knocked out his last opponent, he hasn’t achieved consecutive knockouts since 2012.
Nate Landwehr, it is true, has lost two straight bouts, but that doesn’t entail that he’s in any worse form than Swanson.
Landwehr was a heavy underdog in his last fight, so it is disingenuous to simply cite his losing streak without qualification. He did knock out Jamall Emmers in his third-to-last fight despite being listed at +154, and there’s no reason to question whether he’s fit to achieve a knockout tonight that wouldn’t even be as impressive.
Landwehr opened at -155 for good reason. Swanson’s last fight came in December of 2024. Now he is 42 and on his way out, whereas Landwehr remains an evolving fighter who added significant grappling skills to his game.
Given the misguided betting love for his opponent, Landwehr has thus become the value pick.
- Expert Pick: Nate Landwehr ML at -110 with BetOnline
Josh Hokit vs. Curtis Blaydes
The substantial advantage that Curtis Blaydes is supposed to have over Josh Hokit is his wrestling ability. if you check the latest Blaydes vs. Hokit odds, that edge is already priced in despite concerns about his injuries and bad knee.
Moreover, Hokit has quite the wrestling background himself, having been a two-time All-American at Fresno State. Where this fight will be decided is with a punch. Hokit is undefeated with four straight KO/TKO victories.
He will come at you with a barrage of punches and is hard to stop. As evident in the number of his KO/TKO losses, Blaydes deserves the reputation of having a glass jaw.
Blaydes doesn’t have the chin for this fight; he won’t survive the damage that Hokit, with his powerful punches, inflicts on him. Hokit’s ability to win this fight on the ground or with a knockout makes him a great underdog.
- Expert Pick: Josh Hokit ML at +117 with Bovada
Place Your Bets!
Nate Landwehr, Josh Hokit, and Carlos Ulberg are my top UFC picks. Sign up with multiple top sportsbooks so that you can line-shop and get the best number for each of your bets!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
