US Open Best Bets: Why the Sinner-Alcaraz Rivalry Is a Betting Goldmine
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Spread Astaire
- August 18, 2025
The US Open marks many things. It is the last Grand Slam of the tennis season. That marks the end of summer for those of us in the northern hemisphere. And, of course, it is the last opportunity for players to lift a major trophy in 2025—and for bettors to find value at the top sportsbooks.
We have had an exciting tennis season so far with many plot twists and engaging story lines. On the men’s side, two men have emerged as clear frontrunners in every tournament they enter. On the women’s side, there has been plenty of drama, and new rivalries have emerged this season as there has been a carousel of players at the top.
Every time one woman looks to step forward and claim dominance over the division, another one steps in and takes her place with a masterful performance. If you like watching excellent tennis, the men’s side is for you. If you’re in for unpredictability, wild swings, and dramatic upsets, tune in to the women’s side of the draw. Either way, the US Open has something for everyone. In this article we dive into the men’s side and find a winning tennis pick.
2025 US Open
August 17 – September 07, 2025 at New York, USA
| SPORTSBOOK | TRUST SCORE | BONUS | ONLINE SINCE | Bet Now |
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$500 Cash Bonus
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1985
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$750 Cash Bonus
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1994
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$250 Free Bet
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2001
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55% Cash Bonus
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2001
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20% Cash Bonus
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2001
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$500 Cash Bonus
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1983
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Sinner vs Alcaraz
An elite rivalry has emerged as Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have cemented themselves as the top players in the game of tennis. World number one Sinner started the season with a bang by winning the Australian Open. Alcaraz followed that with a classic comeback performance in what is arguably the best match of the year by winning the French Open.
This was a tough loss for Sinner. At the time this author posited that this would be an excellent measuring stick for Sinner to see how he was able to react to such a devastating loss. Sinner did pass the test with flying colors by following that up with a Wimbledon victory. Sinner has a chance to re-establish himself as the best player of the world with a win here at the US Open.
This would make him the winner of three or four Grand Slams and a finalist in all four. However, I would not be shocked to see Carlos Alcaraz even the score and make this rivalry even more intense heading into 2026.
Tennis betting has become more and more popular because of the prevalence of upsets and long shots winning tournaments. This allows for a lucrative payout on lesser known players. In this case however, I would skip the lottery ticket and stick with the two top guns. Right now, when betting men’s tennis from an outright perspective you either pick Jannik Sinner or Carlos Alcaraz and you ride your horse to the finish line.
With that in mind, I’m going to take Carlos Alcaraz to win the US Open and even the score for Grand Slams in 2025. This will set the stage for an exciting and dramatic 2026. Let’s look at a few of the factors on why I chose Alcaraz over Sinner. First of all, the US Open is a slower hard court, and while Jannick Sinner does excel on the hard courts, he prefers a faster surface.
How Court Speed Flips the Script
One of the reasons he found success at the Australian Open, and then recently in Cincinnati was his ability to use the even bounces to create a rhythm, keep his opponent in a defensive position. and dominate court position in rallies. Sinner is constantly being the aggressor, even while returning serve due to his excellent ground strokes and baseline play, he is very hard to beat on the hard courts.
However, there is one key difference between the courts of Cincinnati and Australia, compared to here in Flushing Meadows, New York. That is the fact that New York plays much slower. It almost has a clay court feel with the slow high bounces that the surface of the US Open provides.
It is very funny that Cincinnati is a warm-up event because it plays almost completely opposite. Cincinnati is one of the fastest hard courts on the ATP tour, and it gives you a low skidding bounce, almost like the grass of Wimbledon. Different hard courts can produce different results based on the way that they are made. This is a big factor in analyzing matches.
Here is where I think that Carlos Alcaraz does have the advantage. The slower surface allows Alcaraz to use his heavier topspin and deft touch at the net to be the more versatile player. Alcaraz will be fine in the defensive position when Sinner wants to be aggressive, yet can turn things on a dime, rushing the net and becoming the aggressor even on a point which Sinner has clearly been in control.
Takeaway
Alcaraz has more tools in his toolbox, especially on the slower surface. Simply doing the “serve plus one” (that is a serve and then forehand winner) will not be as effective due to the slower surface. The longer the points go, I feel this is more of an advantage for Alcaraz. His versatile style of employing slice while varying depth and pace can be worked to his advantage.
In the end, this is a tough decision. I would not fault you if you want to dismiss what I’ve written and take Jannik Sinner. Both men are at the top of their game right now, and these matches can come down to any little edge. However, I would plead to you not to waste your money on a long shot this time. Take one of the two top dogs at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). The choice is yours, but my choice is Carlos Alcaraz.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
