With 2 weeks to bet on Super Bowl LVIII between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs, you can expect some line movement as the money continues pouring in.
Some bookmakers think the game could set a record for the highest betting handle as the 1st Super Bowl in Las Vegas history.
It is also a very interesting matchup pitting the defending champions with the best quarterback against the most talented roster in the NFL and a team that’s been close to the finish line multiple times.
Right now, the 49ers are a 2.5-point favorite, and the total is 47.5 points, which are essentially the numbers the top-rated sportsbooks opened with. Some bettors wait until late in the week to post the biggest wagers yet on the Super Bowl, so we could still see this go to a different number like maybe 49ers -3 before Sunday.
Let’s look at the line movement so far and what these numbers are suggesting for this epic matchup.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, February 11, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Allegiant Stadium
Spread Movement
Sportsbooks like to have a look-ahead price.
This means they had a spread in mind for the 49ers-Chiefs even before the Conference Championship games were played. That number allegedly was the 49ers would be a 3-point favorite against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII.
Then the title games were played. The Chiefs largely were in control in Baltimore, never trailed, and they won 17-10. The 49ers needed a 17-point comeback, aided by some brutal drops by the Lions, to win the NFC Championship Game 34-31. It was their 2nd-straight 3-point win in the playoffs after they won all of their games by at least 7 points in the regular season.
This led to books tightening that look-ahead price and opening with the 49ers as a 2.5-point favorite for the Super Bowl.
However, with early bets hammering the moneyline for the Chiefs, that spread was moving in a hurry.
Just a few hours after the 49ers beat Detroit, you could see it already down to 49ers -1 at many sportsbooks.
One thing we have not yet seen is any book making the Chiefs the outright favorite for this game. In fact, the first week’s big money bets have been going on the 49ers. This includes the first reported $1 million bet going on the 49ers’ moneyline. These big bets have strengthened that spread back to 2.5 points.
Sure, some days have closed at 49ers -2. However, right now it is -2.5. The biggest question is: will we see 49ers -3 before the weekend?
Spread Analysis
Spreads smaller than 3 points in the Super Bowl have been rare. However, it is something we are seeing more often in today’s NFL. Currently, the Super Bowl is usually a close game in the 4th quarter instead of a one-sided blowout like they often were before the salary cap.
- Only 4 of the first 47 Super Bowls had a spread smaller than 3 points.
- Since 2013, 6 of the last 11 Super Bowls will have a spread smaller than 3 points assuming this one closes at 2.5 or smaller.
- Overall, 9 of 58 Super Bowls (15.5%) will have a spread smaller than 3 points.
Has that usually produced a close Super Bowl? Yes and no.
While 7-of-9 games were within a score in the 4th quarter, only Super Bowl V (Colts beat Cowboys 16-13 in a messy game) and Super Bowl LVII last year (Chiefs beat Eagles 38-35) were decided by 1-to-3 points.
4-of-9 games were decided by double digits. That includes Kansas City’s dramatic turnaround in Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers. They went from a 20-10 deficit to a 31-20 win in the 4th quarter. That also includes Super Bowl LIII when the Patriots turned a 3-3 tie into a 13-3 win.
Let’s hope this game avoids blowout territory, like in 1983. The Redskins, a 2-point favorite against the Raiders, lost 38-9 in Super Bowl XVIII when Washington had a chance to repeat. Likewise, the 2013 Broncos were a 2.5-point favorite against Seattle and were blown out 43-8 in Super Bowl XLVIII.
Spread Dynamics
It feels very unlikely we’ll see the spread here get to 49ers -3. This would be a nightmare for 49ers bettors and a gift for Chiefs bettors, as 3 is a key number for spreads in the NFL. It gives you extra insurance for a push. It also forces the 49ers to win by at least 4 points to cover the spread. The 49ers have won their last 2 games by 3 points exactly, and only the 2021 Rams have won 3 straight playoff games by 3 points in NFL history.
However, the Chiefs could draw out big bettors before Sunday night’s kickoff. Remember the excellent history this team has as an underdog under Patrick Mahomes. He is 9-3 SU and 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog with Kansas City.
That is why it would not be surprising to see the spread close at 49ers -2 this weekend. After all, if the conspiracy theorists believe the NFL wants Taylor Swift’s boyfriend to win this game, they should be all over the Chiefs’ moneyline, right?
Put your money where your mouth is.
Total Movement
The total for this game opened at 47.5 and it has remained very steady.
Some days have closed at 47, but it’s been a steady dose of 47.5 and 47 points at the sportsbooks.
Despite all the offensive stars and the offensive minds at head coach for both teams, we have to remember that the Chiefs and 49ers are the No. 2 and No. 3 scoring defenses in the NFL this year.
Total Analysis
Either way, it looks like this will be the lowest total for a Super Bowl since Super Bowl 50. Back then, the line was 44 points and the Broncos beat the Panthers 24-10 in a defensive slugfest.
You have probably heard countless times already in the buildup that the Chiefs are trying to become the first team to repeat as Super Bowl champions since the 2003-04 Patriots. Since the 2004 Patriots, the under is 11-8 in the Super Bowl, including a 4-1 hit rate since 2018.
According to leading sources, about 65% of the betting handle is on the over right now in this game. Could the Chiefs actually be the team that brings value with the under 47.5 points?
The Chiefs and 49ers went under in Super Bowl LIV, finishing with 51 points against a line of 52.5. That even included a miracle finish with a 38-yard touchdown run by Damien Williams that he technically didn’t need to score. He could have just slid down, and the game would have ended 24-20 with kneeldowns by Kansas City.
A year later, everyone expected this fantastic shootout with the Chiefs and Buccaneers. The total was 54.5 points, one of the highest games in Super Bowl history. We got a 31-9 final as the Chiefs failed to score a touchdown behind their modified offensive line that did not stand up to the pass rush of the Buccaneers.
However, last year, the Chiefs and Eagles played a 38-35 classic that went way over the line of 51 points. In fact, the Eagles scored the most points (35) by any Super Bowl loser in history.
Chiefs’ Changed Dynamic
The Chiefs have been a different team this year with that defense.
The under is 14-6 (70%) in their games, the 3rd-best record in 2023. The Chiefs have not allowed anyone to score more than 27 points. They have held 19-of-20 opponents under 25 points. Meanwhile, the 49ers have not scored fewer than 24 points in any win. Brock Purdy has been held under 21 points in all 5 losses this year.
If you think the Chiefs are pulling out the win, you might like the under too in a 24-20 type of game.
Yes, that is a nod to what the score should have been the last time these teams met in the Super Bowl. It is also within the range of how the Chiefs have played in many big games this year where they lost to a playoff team because of a huge mistake late in the game:
- The Chiefs lost 21-17 to the Eagles after Marquez Valdes-Scantling dropped a long touchdown that would have put them ahead 24-21 late.
- The Chiefs lost 20-17 to the Bills after Travis Kelce’s brilliant lateral to Kadarius Toney for a touchdown was negated by an offsides penalty, denying the Chiefs a shot at a 24-20 win that day.
- The Chiefs lost 21-20 to Detroit on opening night in a game where Toney dropped a pass that would have put them in range for a game-winning field goal and 23-21 final.
These are not the high-flying Chiefs of past years, and the track records for Purdy against top defenses and for young quarterbacks making their first Super Bowl start are not very strong.
Strategic Shift
Both defenses are better against the pass than the run. So it could be a big night for both Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco. More runs can bleed the clock faster, leading to fewer snaps, fewer drives and ultimately fewer points.
Sometimes you have to zig when others zag. If the early bets were on the 49ers and the over, maybe the Chiefs and the under is the way to approach this one. Bank on that defense that has been so good since the start of the year. Trust Mahomes and Andy Reid to pull it out.
It should be a fun game to watch either way.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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