It’s the dawn of a new NFL season – and yet another new era here at the ranch. As you can see, Bookmakers Review has taken things to the next level; we’re upping our game with NFL picks for both the standard “single” bets (point spreads, moneylines and totals) and all those tasty football props everyone’s hammering these days.
Our first target: the 2025 debut episode of Sunday Night Football (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC), featuring the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills in a potential AFC Championship preview. Let’s dig deep, peel back the layers, and see where the best football picks are for this must-see matchup.
Sunday Night Football Odds
Because this is Week 1 of the regular season, the first lines hit the NFL odds board months ago; the Bills opened as 2-point home faves at Orchard Park, but most online sportsbooks say it’s a pick’em at press time. This is despite 62% of the wagers landing on Buffalo, according to the latest BMR consensus reports, which may be more indicative of more recent action
Sunday Night Football Picks
All About the Bills
It’s somewhat tempting to hit up the old underdog-Under combo, with the Bills available at +1 and the total at 50.5.
However, the sharps have already drained the betting value from the Under, driving the total down from 51.5 at the open. We’re also not getting enough edge from this point spread to throw anything but a fun-size wager at Buffalo.
As is often the case with small spreads, there’s more value to be had on the moneyline.
And we do like Buffalo in this situation; the projections we’re looking at suggest the Bills have a 53% chance of winning Sunday night, so that’s a 3% edge for us at +100. According to the delightful BMR Kelly Calculator, that’s worth investing 6% of your bankroll in – although many pros prefer half-Kelly or even quarter-Kelly for their bet sizing.
Expert Pick: Bills ML (+100) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Sunday Night Football Prop Bets
Allen Over Everything
We’re not going to pooh-pooh a 3% edge, but you can almost always do better with NFL props – because there are so many to choose from.
Generally speaking, you’ll find more value with the Under, since casual fans are more likely to bet the Over, but in this day and age, you need to disguise the sharpness of your football picks. So we’re sticking with the Over this week, and we’re applying it to Buffalo only.
That way, it looks like you’re simply a Bills fan loading up on your favorite players alongside your moneyline bet.
With that in mind, let’s focus on the Over for QB Josh Allen’s passing attempts and completions. We’re looking at totals of 30.5 attempts (Over –115) and 19.5 completions (Over –135); that juice is a bit high on the latter, but we’re looking at something like a 9% edge for the Pass Attempts prop. Very tasty.
Expert Pick: Josh Allen Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (–115) at Bovada
Count on the Kicker
We appear to have roughly the same advantage – but with more volatility – taking Over 6.5 kicking points for Bills PK Tyler Bass.
Baltimore may be fairly average against the pass (0.00 Expected Points Added, as per nfelo), but they have one of the best run defenses in football at minus-0.12 EPA (No. 3 overall), so Bass could be called upon multiple times to rescue stalled drives with field goals.
Let’s just hope Bass doesn’t go 1-for-2 like he did last year when he landed on four points in their 35-10 Week 4 loss at Baltimore. Instead, how about that AFC Divisional Playoffs rematch at Highmark Stadium, where Bass nailed both his figgies and all three of his PATs as Buffalo held on to win 27-25? We’ll buy that for a dollar.
Expert Pick: Tyler Bass Over 6.5 Kicking Points (–120) at Bovada
Make Sharper Bets With Bookmakers Review
It’s great to have all these modern-day NFL predictions and projections at our fingertips, but the plus-EV bets we’ve recommended here can turn minus-EV in a hurry if the football odds move in the wrong direction. The best way to get the best price on the NFL odds board is to sign up for accounts at multiple sportsbooks – and Bookmakers Review is your best resource for choosing the right ones.
Thank you for joining us here, and as always, may the prolate spheroid be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
