Sunday Night Football will showcase a team that is a hidden sleeper to shake up the AFC. The Denver Broncos keep winning, yet they’re still flying under the radar. Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders are mired in a nightmare season as injuries and age catch up to them.
The Denver Broncos have won eight in a row and are coming off a bye week, while the Washington Commanders took a six-game losing streak into their bye week. Can the Commanders bounce back and be competitive?
Let’s take a look and find the best Sunday night football picks.
Best Bets for Denver Broncos vs. Washington Commanders
The Denver Broncos are in the top 5 in most defensive categories, including:
- 3rd in the league in points allowed per game
- 3rd in the league in total yards allowed per game
- 3rd in the league in defensive DVOA
Meanwhile, the Commanders are 23rd in the league in points per game and 18th in the league in total yards per game. One bright side for Washington is that they are second in the league in Red Zone TD scoring percentage at 71%.
Washington has been able to rush the ball, and they are fourth in the league, averaging yards per rush attempt at 4.9. This will be “strength vs strength” as the Denver Broncos are first in the league at average yards allowed for rush attempts at 3.6. Which team will come out on top in this battle?
We’ll take a look at the picks that hold the most value for Sunday Night Football, including odds, picks, and player props. Let’s start with the spread.
Sunday Night Odds (Broncos -6.5)
The Broncos opened as 6.5-point favorites on the road, and this line has held steady for the most part. We have seen some 6’s pop up at the book, so the early money is heading towards taking the home underdog.
It is not completely implausible that the Commanders will continue to take money, so check the NFL odds board as the week continues. We could see significant line movement on the spread before kickoff.
This total has remained stable at 43.5. The over seems correlated with the Commanders. If they are able to move the ball against the Broncos’ defense, this game should go over. If the Broncos cover the spread, it’s most likely because they shut down the Commanders, so this game will go under.
Sunday Night Pick (Broncos -6.5)
The Broncos will be coming off a bye after a huge win over the Kansas City Chiefs, and their defense should be stronger with Alex Singleton and Patrick Surtain returning to the lineup. The pass game, on the other hand, has been inconsistent, but it should look good against the historically bad pass defense of the Washington Commanders.
The Commanders are allowing an average of 8.4 yards per attempt, the highest mark in the NFL since 2020. Yet the run defense isn’t much better, giving up 137.5 rushing yards per game. The Commanders have lost their last five games by 21 points or more.
Washington is 3-8 ATS this year and 1-7 ATS as an underdog.
The Broncos are clearly a level ahead of the Washington Commanders, who have regressed on both sides of the ball this season. We like the Broncos to cover the 6.5-point spread.
Broncos’ RJ Harvey (Over 57.5 Rushing Yards)
RJ Harvey has taken over the lead running back role after an injury to JK Dobbins. With the Broncos expected to win this game by a margin, they are more likely to run the ball to control the clock in the second half.
We are also attacking one of the weakest run defenses in the league, with the Commanders currently allowing the fifth most fantasy points to running backs this season. They are giving up an average of 137.5 rushing yards per game, which is 27th in the NFL. Over the last three games, it’s gotten even worse, and they’re allowing an average of 161 rushing yards per game.
This will be Harvey’s breakout game in a prime-time setting. Look for Harvey to go over on his rushing attempts and on his rushing yards.
Check out the full player props for Broncos vs. Commanders, and for more markets across the league, explore the NFL player props board.
Your Game Plan for Sunday Night Football Bets
Sunday night gives us a game with huge playoff implications, and we’ve broken down our top Sunday Night Football bets:
- Broncos -6.5
- RJ Harvey Over 57.5 Rushing Yards
You may also want to consider taking the over on the Broncos’ team total due to the Commanders’ inept defense.
Keep in mind that timing is everything when placing bets, so capitalize on Sunday’s best values by opening a sportsbook account and wagering today.
Shop the Best Odds at Top Offshore Sportsbooks
Before locking in your Sunday Night Football bets, make sure you’re getting the best possible price. Shopping lines across multiple sportsbooks is one of the smartest strategies for long-term success. And offshore sportsbooks continue to offer some of the most competitive NFL odds in the market.
Whether you’re backing the Broncos to cover, targeting an RJ Harvey rushing prop, or betting another angle, use a trusted offshore sportsbook like BetOnline to find the best value.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
