The top sportsbooks have released their college basketball odds for tonight’s game between St. John’s and Villanova. After thrashing DePaul in the first round, St. John’s has a much tougher test in a well-rested Villanova team. While the Wildcats make their tournament debut tonight, the Johnnies hope to win a second game in two days.
For reasons that I will explain, you should play the spread for this game.
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Villanova Wildcats
Thursday, March 10, 2022 – 07:00 PM EST at Madison Square Garden
Big East Tournament Success
Under Jay Wright, Villanova historically at least starts out very well in the Big East Tournament. Before last year, they won their first Big East Tournament game five straight times by double digits.
Last year was exceptional because they had to play without star point guard Collin Gillespie. They only beat two teams, Winthrop and North Texas, since his late-season injury.
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A two-time Big East Player of the Year, Gillespie is important to his team for a lot of reasons. Perhaps the reason most relevant to tonight's game is his composure. To explain this reason, let me tell you about the playing style of St. John's.
Red Storm Pressure
The Red Storm want to attack both sides of the ball. They like to play at a hectic, breakneck speed, for which reason they play at the fastest adjusted tempo in the nation. In order to create chaos, they try to create as many turnovers as possible. They are good at doing this: in Big East play, their defense ranked first among Big East teams in turnover rate and second in steal rate.
They will press an opponent full-court, spring double teams behind the perimeter upon an opposing ball-handler, and utilize similar tactics on other parts of the court. Despite playing a game yesterday, they will surely try to do these things.
Unphased
This is why Gillespie's composure is so critical: he literally just does not care. Some people call him a robot on the court and his "robotic" personality is a particularly good thing for your Sports Betting tonight.
Unphased by pressure, he committed one turnover in two games against St. John's this year. Gillespie's presence and comfort against the Red Storm is reflected in his team's success against them this season.
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One game does look like it was close: there was a game that Villanova only won by six. However, Gillespie -- as well as efficient fellow scorer Justin Moore -- was playing on a bum ankle that kept him from scoring any points and generally from being himself.
Plus, even without Gillespie remotely approaching his usual form, Nova produced a 20-point lead that they almost squandered very late by taking the foot off the gas pedal. Leads disappear quickly against St. John's because of the tempo at which the Red Storm play. Villanova simply needs to stay concentrated for 40 minutes. The near-collapse provided a necessary warning.
Passing
Pressure from St. John's comes with risks for the defense. By investing in turnovers, defenders are taken out of position. A good offense like Villanova's will take advantage of the favorable passing opportunities created by such a high-risk defensive playstyle.
Nova players are acclimated to playing at a methodical pace, to passing well and avoiding turnovers, and spread a defense out in order to make it that much harder for a high-pressure defense to position its help defense propitiously.
Villanova's comfort against pressure helps explain its 11-point home victory over St. John's as well as the 66-46 lead it built against the same team on the latter's home court. Overall, the Red Storm's eFG% is six percent higher in transition than it is in non-transition scoring attempts.
Thus, St. John's scoring derives heavily from turnovers. As evident in the comparably high -- among Big East Teams -- field goal percentage that it allows on both opposing two and three-point field goal attempts, the Red Storm defense also relies heavily on creating turnovers. But a Nova team that ranks among the best in the nation at limiting its turnovers and that knows St. John's as well as it does has the antidote, especially with a healthy Gillespie.
Red Storm Half-Court Offense
In its half-court offense, St. John's does not want to face a defense that is organized like Nova's #14 for DePaul expects the screen and positions himself just below the level of the screen in drop coverage.
His anticipatory positioning allows the screened Red Storm player to slip the screen in order to force the defense to rotate. If the two defenders had simply switched i.e., switched guarding responsibilities, this defensive breakdown would never have happened.
Of course, though, DePaul didn't want to switch their 6'11 center onto that Red Storm ball-handler. DePaul doesn't have the personnel to switch as Nova does. Villanova, though, can switch 1-5 with its smaller, more versatile personnel, and this ability to switch prevents St. John's from using ball screens to create favorable matchups and situations like it does against other teams.
While Nova is small, St. John's with its own small players lacks the personnel to exploit the former's lack of rim protection. St. John's wants to attack the basket hard and draw fouls, but Villanova has a well-organized defense that will converge on drivers especially since St. John's, in stark contrast to Villanova, is statistically inefficient from behind the arc.
What the Red Storm will try to do is to get behind the Nova defense by positioning guys away from the rim and cutting. But all Nova players need to do is to avoid watching the ball and to watch their man instead of in order to not get beat. For the above reasons, invest in Villanova with your NCAAB picks.
NCAAB Picks: Wildcats -6 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
