Without stating the obvious here “does anybody want to win the title this year” because each of the previous few games has seen the top 3 teams drop points in recent games and just 2 points separate Inter from tied 1st SSC Napoli and AC Milan.
If it doesn’t get juicy enough, both SCC Napoli and AC Milan will be facing each other this weekend, first vs. the second position, with Inter Milan on their tail.
Check out our soccer pick for that game plus two more plays we like ahead of Matchday 28.
AS Roma vs. Atalanta BC
Saturday, March 5, 2022 – 12:00 PM EST at Stadio Olimpico
It’s a battle between 5th place Atalanta BC and 6th place AS Roma, the home team has been devastatingly bad in recent weeks. They have picked up 3 ties, 1 loss, and 1 win over their previous five matches, and can we really call their 99th-minute winning goal away to Spezia an impressive and decisive win? Definitely not.
Atalanta BC have gone through a rough stretch of games, but they seem to be coming out of that in recent games. Prior to their current 2 game winning streak, they picked a total of 9 points in 7 games. Compare that to their current 2 games where they have picked up 6 points and scored 7 goals whilst conceding none.
Video Picks: Watch BMR’s Free Expert Sports Betting Picks for Today
Atalanta is an impressive and underwhelming outfit both at the same time. We are attacking this game for a total of over 2.5 goals at odds of -115. Atalanta are bang in form and Roma couldn’t be in worse form, Jose Mourinho’s job is even said to have been on the chopping block.
There is too much at stake here for these teams to play defensive football, and guess what, they're both very bad defensively anyhow so even if they wanted to shut up shop, they would still allow goals no doubt. Atalanta wants to push towards Juventus and keep Roma at arm’s length, whilst Roma will struggle to get six points back on Atalanta just to go level on points, whilst Atlanta also has a game in hand. We think this ends 2-2, possibly even a crazy 3-2 to either team, but let’s play it safe here and take the value.
Serie A Pick: Over 2.5 Goals (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Torino FC
Sunday, March 6, 2022 – 09:00 AM EST at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara
Another battle between two teams right beside each other in the league, its 12th place Bologna FC playing host to Torino FC. These two teams have similar identities, tactical, tough, hard to beat, and always a tough opponent to face, even if they do have their off days.
What makes this game even more important is the fact both teams' recent run of form has been bad, meaning the best way to get out of a bad stretch is to beat your nearest rival in the league table, especially if it means jumping up a league position.
Join Now: $1,000 BMR 12-Week All Sports Challenge
We see this game being all-out war and we feel it’s very generous to get -130 on the referee to book both teams over 1.5 times. This bet has cashed in 4 of the previous 5 meetings between these teams and averaged 6 cards per game. Even without knowing the referee we love this play, if the referee averages more than 5.5 cards per game, we would consider this a 2 unit play.
Serie A Pick: Over 1.5 Cards Each (-130) with the Best Online Sportsbooks
SSC Napoli vs. AC Milan
Sunday, March 6, 2022 – 2:45 PM EST at Stadio San Paolo
It’s the biggest game of the weekend, two teams who are currently sitting 1st and 2nd in the league table, although they are level on points. AC Milan has not won the league since 2011.
Meanwhile, SSC Napoli have not won the league since 1987, almost 36 years ago, with the one and only Diego Maradona at the helm. Their top goalscorer that season with 17 goals.
So yes, this is a big game for both teams, we see this being an all-out tactical battle, and both these teams can play a very defensive style of football when they want, but we believe both teams will be spurred on by the fact that Inter Milan are just 2 points behind them and have a game in hand will play a factor here.
Ultimately, we believe the best value is on Napoli to win at +115, they are tactically a better team under their coach Luciano Spalletti, but we also see Milan scoring and the Serie A odds on SSC Napoli to win and both teams to score was as high as +280, which we couldn’t pass upon. It's also helpful to know that the previous 5 fixtures between these teams when Napoli have been the home team have seen both teams to score over 2.5 goals.
In four of the five games, Napoli also came out as winners. Napoli, Napoli!
Serie A Pick: Napoli Win and BTTS (+280) with BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
