Cinderella heads to Philadelphia as the No. 15 seed Saint Peter’s Peacocks hope to continue their role as darlings of the 2022 NCAA Tournament after knocking off No. 2 Kentucky, then upsetting Murray State to reach the Sweet 16.
The Peacocks will be playing within driving distance of their New Jersey campus, which should help give them a home-court advantage, above and beyond the crowd’s natural inclination to support the underdog.
Saint Peter’s will be facing No. 3 seed Purdue, who is one of two teams still carrying the Big Ten banner. The conference, considered by many observers to be the nation’s best this year, sent nine teams to the NCAA Tournament, but only two survived the first weekend.
The Purdue Boilermakers are favored by the college basketball odds. Are they the right NCAAB pick?
Saint Peter’s Peacocks vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Friday, March 25, 2022 – 07:09 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center
Peacock Power
The stereotypical Cinderella team rides a hot three-point shooter or a crazy defense to early upsets, but Saint Peter’s has shown it can win in a variety of ways in its first two tournament games.
The Peacocks won by shooting lights out, hitting 9-of-17 from three against Kentucky, and posting a 58.8 effective field goal percentage. And they won hitting just 3-of-13 from three and a 44.3 effective percentage against Murray State. They won by getting 42 percent of their offensive rebound attempts and by getting just 27 percent.
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Their one constant all year has been defense. The Peacocks have the nation’s seventh-best effective shooting defense and are No. 16 against the three and No. 12 against the two. They have the No. 13 blocked shot rate and No. 51 turnover rate.
They’ll be facing the nation’s most efficient offense and a top-four three-point shooting team in Purdue. Of course, Kentucky was the sixth most-efficient offense, and Saint Peter’s got past the Wildcats to start this run.
A True Goliath
This Sweet 16 game will seem like David vs. Goliath in more ways than one. Sure, Saint Peter’s will be a prohibitive underdog, but Purdue is also one of the biggest teams in the nation. The Boilermakers are led by 7-foot-4 Zach Edey and 6-foot-10 Trevion Williams.
The tallest player in Saint Peter’s regular rotation is 6-foot-7. Oumar Diahame is 6-foot-10 but plays just 8.5 minutes per game. “Every game's going to be physical,” Williams said. “I just think if we go in and embrace the physicality of the game, we'll be fine. Just use our size advantage as best as possible, being smart, just being disciplined.”
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Saint Peter’s coach Shaheen Holloway seemed ready for the challenge. “I got guys from New Jersey and New York City,” he said. “You think we're scared of anything? You think we're worried about guys trying to muscle us and tough us out? We do that. That's who we are.”
Purdue opens things up inside for the big men by knocking down threes at a 38.8 percent rate, the fourth-best in the country. Three players with more than 34 made threes hit at a 41 percent rate or better, and the Boilermakers’ two most prolific outside shooters are Sasha Stefanovic (84 made at .378 rate) and Jaden Ivey (63 at .364).
Best Bets
This is a low-key marquee matchup for the Sweet 16, with one of the nation’s best shooting teams against one of the nation’s best shooting defenses. A key for Saint Peter’s will be to stop Purdue before they get off a shot.
For all of Purdue’s efficiency on offense, the Boilermakers aren’t elite at ball protection, and the Peacock’s are one of the top takeaway teams. It may not be enough to keep the string of upsets rolling, but it should be enough to cover a big line, especially in a game where both teams will slow things down and grind it out. Look for a low-scoring, tight contest.
NCAAB Pick: Saint Peter’s +12 (-108) with Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
NCAAB Pick: Under 136 (-115) with BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
