Top NFL Pick: Buccaneers ML (+135) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Philadelphia Eagles were once 10-1 but had to settle for a wild card berth in the NFC after finishing 11-6. They join the 1986 Jets as the only teams to start 10-1 or better and not reach 12 wins, and they even had a 17th game to try to prevent that.
Does Philadelphia complete the collapse with a loss to Tampa Bay (9-8) this Monday night? The Buccaneers only scored 9 points in Carolina last week, but it was enough to win the NFC South and host this playoff game.
Based on the NFL odds, the Eagles are still a 3-point road favorite at our main offshore sportsbooks, but it is hard to trust a team that has not put in a really good team performance since beating Miami in Week 7.
But the Eagles did win 25-11 in Tampa on a Monday night way back in Week 3 when we had no idea things would lead to this game to close wild card weekend. We have our reasons for why the Buccaneers, more than any other underdog this week, have a chance to upset the Eagles and advance in the NFC.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium
Which QB Is Healthier?
Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield both looked to be in a good deal of pain in Week 18. Mayfield already went into that game with an issue with his ribs, then after a low hit, he was visibly limping around and struggling to get to the sidelines at times. But he did finish the game and got the low-scoring win.
Hurts did not finish his team’s loss against the Giants. Although some of that was waving a white flag with the Giants up 24-0 and the Cowboys taking care of business against Washington at the same time. That meant the Eagles knew they were going to be locked into the No. 5 seed and face Tampa, so why risk any more injury? The team had already lost A.J. Brown earlier in the game.
But Hurts no doubt suffered an injury to his middle finger. We could see on video that it was not right, and Hurts said it “popped out” on him. The X-rays have come back negative, so it is not fractured, and he should be able to play.
Mayfield expects to play too, so we’ll give the Bucs the edge on the injury front. The Eagles also lost safety Sydney Brown, and they are only hopeful they will have wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith back for this game after recent injuries.
Jalen Hurts vs. Todd Bowles
These teams met in the wild card round in 2021. The Buccaneers won at home 31-15. It was the 1st playoff game for Hurts and coach Nick Sirianni, and Tampa had a better roster than now.
But that was still Todd Bowles’ defense, and he has moved up to head coach since. Overall, Bowles is 2-1 against Hurts, who has awful numbers against the Bucs with 3 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He is only averaging 6.1 yards per pass, completing 54.7% of his passes, and has a 63.0 passer rating.
That finger injury could make throwing extra difficult for Hurts. He already has been struggling a bit coming into this game. In Week 3 against Tampa, Hurts threw 2 interceptions and was charted with a season-high 8 bad throws. Throw in a sore finger and that number of bad throws might increase this week.
Eagles: Bad Defense in Road Playoff Setting
You could make the case no defense fell off harder in 2023 than the Eagles. They had 70 sacks and that great pass rush on their way to the Super Bowl a year ago, but this year’s team finished 30th in points allowed and only had 43 sacks.
The Eagles went from 4 players with double-digit sacks last year to only one player (Haason Reddick) even clearing 7.0 sacks on the season.
The 2023 Eagles are just the 14th team to make the playoffs after allowing 400 points during the regular season. We will say that 3 teams on that list still reached the Super Bowl:
- 2008 Cardinals (lost)
- 2016 Falcons (lost)
- 2011 Giants (won)
All 3 of those teams won their divisions and were able to host at least 1 playoff game.
Defensive Dilemma
What happens when a team allowing over 25 points per game goes on the road in the playoffs? Those teams are 1-3 in the wild card round on the road. Only the 2020 Browns won and that was in Pittsburgh in the COVID year without a real crowd. That was also Baker Mayfield’s 1st playoff start and he played very well.
Overall, the teams allowing 400 points were 4-7 in the wild card round.
The Eagles also outscored their opponents by just 5 points this season. Since 2012, teams who allow at least 350 points with a scoring differential of no higher than plus-20 are 5-15 (.250) in opening playoff games.
The Eagles are bad beyond just allowing an excessive number of points and yards. They also play poor situational defense. They rank 31st on 3rd down and 30th in the red zone, allowing a touchdown 66.1% of the time.
That could help a Tampa offense that is 30th in the red zone (44.9% touchdown rate), but the Bucs are top 10 on 3rd downs. They also can score from a long distance with big plays to Mike Evans.
Big-Play Receivers
Both teams have very good wide receivers to lead the way for these passing games, but you could say the Bucs come in healthier and a little deeper than the Eagles.
Mike Evans led the NFL with 13 touchdown catches. This is the first time he’s ever led in any major receiving category for a season. His 1,255 yards were his most since 2018, so the connection with Mayfield has been strong. Evans also seems to have his best games at home. Of his 6 games with at least 80 yards this year, 5 were at home. Evans had 60 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles in Week 3, but that Philadelphia defense has only gotten worse since.
Chris Godwin also had another 1,000-yard receiving season. Meanwhile, rookie Trey Palmer came on down the stretch as he finished with 385 yards and 3 touchdowns. That doesn’t sound like much, but the No. 3 wide receiver for the Eagles, Olamide Zaccheaus, only had 164 yards this year. In fact, the Eagles only had 3 players with more than 215 receiving yards, and Rachaad White has been a better receiving back for Tampa than D’Andre Swift has proven to be for the Eagles.
Philadelphia loves running its offense through A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, but they both have to return from injury and produce in this game. The Bucs held Smith to 28 yards in Week 3, his 2nd-lowest total this year.
If Evans and Godwin can outplay Brown and Smith at wide receiver, that should be another edge in Tampa’s favor. The Eagles have not gotten the same production out of tight-end Dallas Goedert as they did last year.
Reality Check
Frankly, neither team comes into this game looking good or healthy to go on a long playoff run. But since they last met in Week 3, the Eagles have only gotten worse on defense, the offense has lost some efficiency too, and Mayfield has gotten more comfortable in running Tampa’s improved offense behind coordinator Dave Canales.
The thought in Mayfield replacing Tom Brady was that the Bucs would have a lot more turnovers and regress. But outside of that sloppy 4-turnover game against the Saints in Week 17, that has not been the case. Tampa only has 18 giveaways, or 10 fewer than Philadelphia. The Eagles have also forced multiple takeaways in just 1 of their last 14 games.
The Eagles have not scored more than 25 points in 8-of-9 road games this year. If Bowles’ defense can keep the score down, something they have been good at doing, then this game will be there for the taking for Baker and the offense.
He’ll just need to take it like how Drew Lock did against the Eagles in Seattle, or how Kyler Murray did it for Arizona in Week 17.
The Eagles were able to disguise their flaws with a lot of close wins earlier this year. But once that started drying up —because you just cannot plan for teams dropping go-ahead 50-yard touchdown bombs (Chiefs) or making 59-yard field goals in the rain (Eagles vs. Bills)—, the flaws only became more glaring, and the coaching staff didn’t seem to have the answers for how to get on track.
The Pick
Maybe the Eagles pull a 1986 Jets and win this game convincingly as that team did in the wild card round following a 5-game losing streak to disgrace their 10-1 start. But going on the road in the playoffs is tough, and the Bucs have key coaches and players who have won games like this before.
We’ll take the Buccaneers to complete the collapse of this Philadelphia season and win the game outright for your NFL picks. Crown a new NFC champion.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers ML (+135) at Bovada
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