NFL Pick: Over 44½ at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL begins Week 5 with a rematch from last year’s Thursday night game between the Commanders and Bears. Sunday night is a stellar rematch from the playoffs the last 2 years and a classic big NFC game between the Cowboys and 49ers. The week ends with Monday Night Football and the Packers trying to correct course in Las Vegas.
We have chosen our top NFL predictions for each night of prime-time games in Week 5, which you can always find at top-rated offshore sportsbooks.
The Davante Adams Revenge Game
It is fair to say that Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers were much happier together than they have been apart since the trade in 2022. Adams and his disappointing Raiders (1-3) badly need a win at home while the Packers (2-2) played very poorly at home against Detroit last week in a 34-20 loss.
The Raiders are 2-point favorites with a total of 44.5 points.
Green Bay Packers vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Monday, October 9, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at Allegiant Stadium
Packers Looking for Consistency
The problem with Green Bay was no pass protection or trust in the offensive line against Detroit’s front. Jordan Love started that game 1-of-7 before finishing with better numbers. But early on, the Packers were getting killed up front, which could happen again if Maxx Crosby gets to terrorize a line that does not have left tackle David Bakhtiari.
But the hope is that with the extra rest time – Green Bay played on a Thursday and gets another day to prepare for this Monday game – the Packers will have a healthier lineup. That means the healthiest group of skill players around Love all season as No. 1 wideout Christian Watson was on a pitch count against Detroit. He still caught a touchdown in that game.
Love is having accuracy issues, but the Raiders have a defense that is very kind to helping teams get over the hump. Even Kenny Pickett of the Steelers threw multiple touchdowns against the Raiders, something he has not done in his other 15 appearances in the NFL.
If Love is going to have a bounce-back game, then the Raiders are a perfect opportunity for that to happen.
Davante Adams Will Come Up Big
Last year, the Raiders had the rushing champion (Josh Jacobs) and leader in touchdown catches (Davante Adams). Josh McDaniels’ offense was very functional, but the Raiders had poor game management and blew a league-worst 6 leads in the 4th quarter.
This year, the Raiders are the only team that has failed to score more than 18 points in any game. Jacobs is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry, which is way down from 4.9 last year.
Adams is still doing a great job, but he needs Jimmy Garoppolo back in the lineup after rookie Adian O’Connell took way too many sacks and had awful turnovers in his debut against the Chargers last week.
Garoppolo makes his share of mistakes too of course, but he can get Adams the ball better and has a sound matchup here against an underwhelming Green Bay defense that already allowed 25 points and over 400 yards to Atlanta, which has looked like one of the worst offenses in the league since that game.
The Pick
Trust Adams to have a special night and remind the Packers what they are missing at wide receiver. The Raiders will have their best scoring game of the season, which isn’t saying much when they topped out at 18 points so far.
But also trust the Raiders to realize they are still awful on defense, and the Packers will also score into the 20s (at least) in this one as Matt LaFleur finds a way to get the team back on track. Take the over in this matchup to close Week 5.
NFL Pick: Over 44½ (-110) at Bovada
49ers to Lock Up Dallas Again?
Prime-time games have been lacking in scoring lately, but two juggernauts are facing off in San Francisco. With great offenses and great defenses on both sides, this has the potential to be a classic.
The 49ers are a 3.5-point home favorite with a total of 45 points.
Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Sunday, October 08, 2023 – 08:20 PM EDT at Levi’s Stadium
Cowboys Need a Fast Start
A big reason why Dallas is 0-2 in the playoffs against the 49ers since 2021 is poor starts. The Cowboys had no points in either 1st quarter and managed just a single scoring drive in the 1st half of both games, so it was always an uphill battle against an elite defense.
Dallas has been a fast starter and completely dominant in its 3 wins this year, outscoring opponents 108-13, but those were teams with terrible offenses that fed the Cowboys 10 takeaways as they hope to lead the league in that category for a 3rd year in a row.
But the Cowboys allowed 28 points to Arizona, which did not have a turnover. The Cardinals ran the ball very well, and Joshua Dobbs played smart and protected the ball. The 49ers can repeat that formula with Christian McCaffrey running wild right now, and Brock Purdy has only thrown 2 interceptions in games that he started.
The Cowboys are doing many things well, but the offense is almost playing things comically safe as they only have 1 turnover after having issues with that last year. But Dak Prescott’s passing success rate is 50.7%, which would rank as the 3rd-lowest season of his career. The Cowboys are also middle of the road in rushing yards per attempt.
If the 49ers protect the ball, it is not clear if the Cowboys are as explosive or dynamic to keep up with a high-scoring San Francisco team.
49ers Keep Rolling
The 49ers keep making 30-point games look routine as they have done in 75% of Brock Purdy’s starts. Last week against Arizona, the team that handed Dallas a loss, was one of the best offensive performances of all time.
The 49ers had the ball 6 times on drives that were not just a kneel-down. They scored 5 long touchdown drives and only punted once on a drive that still gained 41 yards. That is close to a perfect offensive game. Purdy was 20-of-21 passing, only the 3rd time in NFL history that an offense finished with 1 incompletion on more than 20 attempts.
Brandon Aiyuk came back and burned the defense with 6 catches for 148 yards. The 49ers were that strong on offense with Deebo Samuel not even having a target in the passing game.
This is a bad game for the Cowboys to be missing corner Trevon Diggs, who tore his ACL in practice before the Arizona loss. Aiyuk, Samuel, and tight end George Kittle are a nightmare to deal with. We haven’t even mentioned McCaffrey scoring a touchdown (or more) every week for this team.
The Pick
Both teams come in with 1 giveaway on offense, but if you had to pick the team that was going to blink and make more mistakes against these great defenses, wouldn’t you pick Dallas? If you had to pick a coaching staff here to have the upper hand, wouldn’t you trust Kyle Shanahan over Mike McCarthy?
Maybe the Cowboys will learn a lot from this game that could benefit them if there is another playoff rematch, but for Week 5, trust the 49ers’ consistency over the Cowboys’ volatility and take San Francisco to cover at the NFL odds. Dallas may very well keep them under 30 points, but it is hard to trust the Dallas offense to score enough points to win this one.
NFL Pick: 49ers -3½ (-105) at Bovada
It Won’t Be 12-7 Again in Bears-Commanders
These teams met a year ago on Thursday Night Football, and it was a 12-7 win by Washington after the Bears came up short on the final drive, which is something they do often in the Justin Fields era. However, the Bears scored 28 points last week before losing to Denver while Washington put up 31 in Philadelphia. This should not be a 12-7 game again.
The Commanders are a 6.5-point home favorite with a total of 44 points. We are focusing on Chicago’s ability to score more than 7 points in the first half alone.
Chicago Bears vs. Washington Commanders
Thursday, October 05, 2023 – 08:15 PM EDT at FedExField
Show Us Something, Chicago
When you lose 14 games in a row, you start to question everything. The offense has been a big problem, but the defense is arguably the bigger mess here. Still, no player gets more attention than Justin Fields as he is the quarterback, and he was the starter last year when this team lost 12-7 against Washington.
But Fields had one of his best games ever last week against Denver when he had a perfect passer rating at halftime. Unfortunately, a fumble returned for a touchdown and a game-ending interception doomed the Bears and marred the day for Fields, who still had what was the best passing game of his career.
Hopefully, despite the finish and loss, this will spark him this week to start a game well.
Washington’s Defense Is Not Good
The Denver defense is abysmal, but Washington has also allowed 33, 37, and 34 points over the last 3 games. Would it be so crazy to think the Bears could score twice in the first half and get over 7.5 points?
We’ve already seen Washington trail Arizona 13-10 at halftime in Week 1, trailed 21-14 at halftime in Denver in Week 2, down 16-0 against Buffalo, and the Eagles got to 10 points by halftime on Sunday.
Players and coaches have to realize they are playing for jobs in Chicago with the way things are going so poorly. They must play better and scoring over 7.5 first-half points is a low bar to clear.
The Pick
These prime-time games have been a real toss-up for the struggling teams this year. Just this past week, we saw Zach Wilson rise to the moment and play a respectable game in a losing effort to the Chiefs. But on Monday night, the Giants found another new low after Daniel Jones was sacked 10 times in a 24-3 loss to Seattle.
Trusting the team that’s lost 14 in a row is hard, but the bar of a field goal and touchdown in a half is fairly low. The Bears have cleared it in 2-of-3 games coming into this one, and that includes a trip to Tampa Bay, which has a solid defense. We’ll give the Bears one more shot and take them to hit this over after the good showing for most of last week’s game.
NFL Pick: Bears Over 7½ First Half Points (-110) at Bovada
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